ESG & Industry Updates

Transportation DeCarbonization: Maritime Vessels

Posted by Kelly Burke on Jun 6, 2023 7:45:00 AM

As we have been discussing, the US National Blueprint for Transportation Decarbonization breaks the Transportation sector into seven categories, each of which has its own targets for emission reduction/elimination, and strategies for how those declines in emissions will be achieved. The next category addressed in the Blueprint by emissions % is the Maritime Sector.

The Maritime sector includes domestic, international, and recreational vessels under its umbrella. All in, there are an estimated 12 million privately owned recreational vessels, and 38 thousand commercial vessels including ferries, tugboats, container ships, etc.

About 20% of emissions in the sector come from recreational vessels, which primarily use gasoline. Domestic shipping and International shipping both contribute around 30% of the emissions share each. This segment primarily runs on diesel, with some percentage coming from heavier residual oils in large international vessels.

An important factor in emissions calculation for the Maritime sector, as well as for how effective efforts to curb them will be is the fact that its very difficult to get exact numbers on emissions given the complicated nature of international vessel traffic and fueling. Additionally, international vessels (including those flagged under the US) fuel up across the globe, often in areas that may not have the same options for less carbon intensive fuels.

The maritime sector, given its multinational presence, will require huge amounts of cooperation and agreement across nations in order to address the sector as a whole. Coordination amongst port owners, vessel operators and local and international governments will be pivotal to success. Part of this process thus far is the DOE “Mission Innovation Zero-Emission Shipping Mission” which aims to ensure that at least 10 ports on 3 continents can supply zero-emission fuel by 2030, and that 5%+ of the global fleet runs on those zero-emission fuels.

Ports are a huge factor in decarbonizing the sector, and international cooperation will be critical to movement forward.

The global nature of the maritime sector is a huge segment needing to be addressed as relates to Environmental Justice concerns, as well. Port communities in some areas are now and have historically been made up of disadvantaged groups that disproportionately bear the brunt of poor air quality and pollution sometimes caused by the industry. Resolving the emissions and pollution issues around port cities globally will need to be part of the long-term strategy on climate.

A major hurdle in addition to the global nature of vessel transport, is the long lifecycle of maritime equipment. When we think of upgrades in technology and emissions regulation adoption, we typically picture cars and trucks – both of whom have a much much shorter lifecycle than maritime vessels. The usual turnover time for large marine vessels is upwards of 30 years, and the cost associated with new vessels can be staggering. All of which is to say that advances likely won’t have substantial impacts in the near term unless they work with existing fuel types and refuel patterns.

Areas of focus include sustainable liquid/gas fuels that are drop-in replacements for the existing fossil fuels being used. This option is likely the most viable interim option, given the long lifetime cycle of the vessels and the existing port infrastructure that keeps them fueled and moving. On smaller boats, there are options for electrification that may or may not prove viable over time but again, where recreational/small vessels are not the major offenders, the offset by this solution seem minimal.

Two interesting and seemingly easily adoptable options for overall reduction in emissions appear to be the following

  • Cold Ironing – this is essentially “plugging in” or running large vessels off electricity during their time in port to offset emissions, particularly those that harm the immediate port city environment.
  • Exhaust Treatment and Carbon Capture – there is an idea that post exhaust emissions from vessels could be treated and neutralized (sort of like a reverse DEF process) to mitigate the ultimate CO2 impact. Logistically there seems to be some issues with how exactly the process would work, and what the options for storage and disposal would be in a marine environment.

Much like the other sectors we have discussed, investment in infrastructure will be a huge critical piece of the puzzle. Part of the underlying requirements for success of new regulations is that people are able to access the things that make complying with them possible, whether that is a fuel type or charging station, etc. In the Maritime sector this is more complicated, as discussed. There are however, options being made available through the Inflation Reduction Act (funding for ports to purchase zero-emission equipment, resources for climate planning), and the Port Infrastructure Development Program (grants for terminal infrastructure improvements).

 

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Topics: Marinas, Emissions, Biden Administration, Carbon Capture, decarbonization

Transportation Decarbonization: Medium & Heavy Duty Vehicles

Posted by Kelly Burke on Jan 30, 2023 1:07:12 PM

As we have been discussing, the US National Blueprint for Transportation Decarbonization breaks the Transportation sector into seven categories, each of which has its own targets for emission reduction/elimination, and strategies for how those declines in emissions will be achieved. The second segment by emission % is Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles.

For the purposes of the Decarbonization Blueprint, “Medium and Heavy Duty On-Road Trucks and Buses” includes everything from heavy-duty pickup trucks to long haul semi’s (and everything in between). MHDV make up approximately 5% of vehicles, but they are responsible for 21% of transportation emissions. A further 50% of those emissions are from heavy duty trucks that make up about 10% of the total MHDV category. So when we are talking about this category’s emissions, most of the effective action that can be taken should be focused on a small segment of the total. The other simultaneous focus for MHDV category is the social and environmental justice issue. Where the emissions from light duty vehicles are more ubiquitous, the emissions from MHDV are often concentrated in major urban areas and along disadvantaged corridors within the country.

In terms of the numbers, 81% of the MHDV segment is diesel powered, and unlike light duty vehicles, there is not really a clear ability to easily pivot to EV or hydrogen options (outside of potentially in some of the lighter vehicles that run smaller ranges without heavy freight – like postal trucks). So the suite of zero emission options for the MHDV segment will necessarily be more varied than LDV or other segments where there is less variation in use and function for the vehicles in question. That means a LOT of research & development. Additionally, turnover and replacement timelines for heavy duty vehicles are substantially longer than those for light vehicles, so all the proposed new changes would end up slow rolling out on newer vehicles over time. This is where renewable diesel options will likely become a key factor in pushing MHDV toward hitting emissions goals.

In November of 2022, the US joined the “Global Memorandum of Understanding on Zero Emission Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles” introduced at COP26 which agrees that we will be on a path to 100% new zero-emission MHDV by 2040 at the latest, with a target of 30% by 2030. In January 2023, the EPA announced their “Final Rule and Related Materials for Control of Air Pollution from New Motor Vehicles: Heavy Duty Engine and Vehicle Standards” that sets new emission standards for HD vehicles in line with the Decarbonization plan (you can read that EPA rule here: Control of Air Pollution From New Motor Vehicles: Heavy-Duty Engine and Vehicle Standards )

All of this to say that despite the lack of current technology with which to make the changes required to hit emissions targets, it appears all the rules and regulations coming out across Federal Agencies are intending to follow through on the goals set. This portion of the policy obviously carries serious implications for trucking and transportation companies across the board in terms of their equipment purchasing, maintenance of current options, etc. This is definitely a portion of the plan that is still very much unsettled in terms of immediate and longer range impacts. We will keep a close eye on developments and continue to keep you informed of major changes that impact the industry.

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Topics: EPA, Carbon Emissions, Emissions, Biden Administration, paris accord, decarbonization

Transportation DeCarbonization Blueprint: Light Duty Vehicles

Posted by Kelly Burke on Jan 20, 2023 10:41:32 AM

The US National Blueprint for Transportation Decarbonization splits the Transportation sector into seven categories of focus: Light-Duty Vehicles, Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles, Off-Road, Rail, Maritime, Aviation, and Pipelines. We will discuss the major items involved in each of these, from largest % of carbon share to least, starting with Light Duty Vehicles.

Light-Duty Vehicles produce 49% of current transportation emissions (of note, for the purposes of the Blueprint “current” refers to 2019 levels due to the pandemic and related shutdowns making 2020 & 2021 data unreliable/useless).

The United States has over 280 million light duty vehicles on the road and these vehicles:

  • Account for 75% of passenger transport miles,
  • Account for 50% of total transportation energy use and emissions
  • Consume over 120 billion gallons of gasoline annually
  • Emit over 1,000 MMT CO2 annually

As we are all aware, Light Duty Vehicles (LDV) in the US have been subject to increasingly strict emissions requirements over the past few decades, and we have seen a massive increase in the availability of electric vehicles (EV) as well. To put specific numbers on it, in the past 15 years, LDVs have seen a 30% improvement in fuel economy (some of the ultimate impact of this however was mitigated by the trend toward larger, more fuel intensive passenger vehicles during that time period). EV have seen an explosion in popularity, it used to be you’d see a Prius or Volt here or there, now you would be hard pressed to drive to Boston without getting stuck behind a Tesla or two. Again, in terms of specific numbers, EV sales reached over half a million vehicles sold, bringing the total to 4.5% of market share in 2021 (18% in California!).

One of the major focuses of the blueprint in the LDV sector is the promotion of EV and zero emission vehicles, with an obvious preference for EV adoption. In tandem with EV adoption, there is a necessary push for charging infrastructure to make them a more feasible option for consumers. The goal is to have 50% new light duty EV sales by 2030, which would be a major step down the road to the ultimate goal of 100% EV adoption.

There is also an included focus on “Funding Research and Innovation” in this section of the Blueprint, which largely functions as an acknowledgement that we aren’t quite there on battery life and battery cost. Part of the legislative language in the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill (BIL) and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) included large investments toward the development of a reliable EV manufacturing supply chain. The legislation also references research and development aimed at achieving price parity between EV and traditional combustion engine vehicles to make them more accessible to the average consumer in terms of price, practicality, and maintenance costs over time. Studies indicate that battery cost has dropped 90% from 2010 to 2020, and projections indicate that when the price reaches $100/kwh the MSRP on EV will hit parity with combustion engine vehicles. The legislation mentioned above intends to fund the research on battery technology to make those price levels reality.

So that is the overview, the major takeaways being that the major goals for this section are:

  • “Achieve 50% of new vehicle sales being zero-emission by 2030, supporting a pathway for full adoption, and ensure that new internal combustion engines are as efficient as possible.”
  • “Deploy 500,000 EV chargers by 2030”
  • “Ensure 100% of Federal Fleet procurement be zero-emission by 2027”

Obviously, for the purposes of energy suppliers, particularly at the consumer level, the growth of EV adoption implies a longer-term shift in the mix of gasoline demand and delivery, especially to stations and municipalities. Actual changes in market share of EV and zero-emission vehicles is something to watch.

Next up, medium- and heavy-duty trucks and buses.

Stay Tuned!

 

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Topics: EV Charger, EPA, Carbon Emissions, Emissions, Biden Administration, ev, DOT, decarbonization

Oh Truck No! Three Northeast States Adopt Zero Emission Vehicle Rules

Posted by Kelly Burke on Mar 23, 2022 10:31:17 AM

shutterstock_1535721572

The Advanced Clean Truck Rule, first adopted in California, has been adopted by three Northeastern States as well - namely, Massachusetts, New York & New Jersey. The rule requires an increasing percentage of medium & heavy duty trucks sold to be Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV), beginning in 2025. The Act requires manufacturers to participate in a credit/deficit program to increase the number of ZEVs sold in the state, and a one time report detailing in-state operation of vehicles over 8500lb to "inform future decisions about emission reductions from the transportation sector". 

Despite being a relatively small percentage of the total vehicles in the United States, medium and heavy duty trucks contribute an estimated 60% of tailpipe nitrogen and particle emissions. So far, California, NY, MA, NJ and Oregon have adopted the rule (Maine is expected to sign on later in 2022) and all combined their fleets constitute about 20% of the total vehicle class, so their adoption of the regulations is expected to have a major and relatively immediate impact. In New Jersey, their transportation sector is responsible for 40% of emissions and despite impacted vehicles (buses, trucks) only making up about 40% of their total number, they're responsible for 25% of transport related emissions. Massachusetts by 2050 expects to see a 51% reduction in nitrous oxide, 23% in particulate matter emissions, and 53% GHG emissions drops as a result of adopting this measure. If you extrapolate these expectations out, the impact of this rule's adaptation should be very significant.  

Of added significance is, as discussed with regard to current Administration concerns about environmental justice, the Advanced Clean Truck Rule is expected to be especially beneficial to historically impacted communities, as heavy transportation and its resultant particulate emissions disproportionately impact urban communities, including communities of color. The steep reduction in GHG and particulates expected from ZEV adaption will have the greatest impact where those emissions are currently concentrated most heavily. 

The rule is in effect pre point of sale, so it impacts manufacturers of these medium & heavy duty trucks. It's a little unclear yet how timelines, if any become put in place, would work for existent fleets - one can only assume that the one time reporting rule included in the ACT adoption will be used to address that question down the line. It's also unclear what exactly the mix of ZEV looks like, and how the timeline on the rules impact will impact sales cycles and equipment turnover going forward, and what impact that will have on fleets, fleet operators, and end level consumers. 

I wrote an article for Oil & Energy Magazine's Jan/Feb issue on the specifics of the rule and how it breaks out by each state that has adopted thus far in the Northeast. You can read that article in its entirety here: Oh Truck No! Three Northeast States Adopt Zero-Emission Vehicle Rule 

 

 

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Topics: Massachusetts, Climate Change, Carbon Emissions, Emissions, environmental justice

Obama Admin,EPA to Propose New Fuel Standards for Trucks Today

Posted by Ed Burke on Jun 19, 2015 12:30:00 PM

Semi-truck driving at dusk

The Obama Administration, EPA and DOT are set to unveil new proposed regulations today aimed at reducing fuel use and curbing emissions in trucks as part of the push for regulations aimed at stemming Climate Change.

The Climate Change proposals, in addition to the new trucking regulations, will include new regulations on airplanes, power plant emissions reductions, and more restrictions on methane emissions from the oil and gas industry (for a quick refresher there: Methane & Consumers giving Natural Gas Headaches ).

The new trucking regulation proposal will be open to comment, and finalized as a rule next year. 

Under the proposal as it currently stands, truck manufacturers will be required to increase fuel efficiency by 1/3. This would apply to all 2019 and later model year trucks. The EPA is ballparking the required changes to those trucks to cost approximately $12 thousand dollars per vehicle, but they argue that the amount of money from fuel savings would offset that cost in 18-24 months. 

The regulations regarding DEF and SCR Technology effective in 2010 have already made trucking emissions cleaner than some of its gasoline counterparts (for more on that check out:This Ain't Your Grandpa's Diesel Truck ).  This additional measure is intended to complete the cycle so to speak, and deal with the perceived lack of fuel efficiency of trucks, especially 18 wheelers, and other heavy-duty and/or heavy-use vehicles like garbage trucks, delivery vehicles, and even heavy-duty pickup trucks.

According to the New York Times, the manufacturing industry is split essentially down the middle on the issue, with half concerned about the cost, logistics, and potential safety impacts. The other half seem to be on board and believe the plan is feasible by 2019 model year roll out. 

What say you?

 

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Topics: EPA Mandate, Carbon Emissions, Emissions, fuel efficiency

US Carbon Emissions Still on the Decline - Guess Why?

Posted by Ed Burke on Jul 11, 2014 5:03:24 PM

fracking equipment

In June, the White House released a 15 page report on the status of its' Climate Change Initiative. In 2009, Obama stated the goal would be to drop US carbon emissions to 17% below 2005 levels - an ambitious figure that the country is not only on track to meet, but should easily surpass.. In fact, in 2012, US carbon emissions hit a 20 year low. Why?

Is it all the wind power? Solar? Emissions mandates? Not even close. Its thanks to fracking.Yes, fracking. 

In fact, according to information from a meeting of the Council of Europe in Strasburg in June - fracking in the US alone has reduced carbon emissions by significantly more than the entire world's wind and solar projects - COMBINED. (You can read the whole article on that here: Oil and Gas Online)

Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's most recent report in April (as quoted in the daily caller) states that “A key development since AR4 is the rapid deployment of hydraulic‐fracturing and horizontal‐drilling technologies, which has increased and diversified the gas supply and allowed for a more extensive switching of power and heat production from coal to gas … this is an important reason for a reduction of GHG emissions in the United States"

So basically what is happening is the abundance of natural gas we now have domestically, plus its very attractive price level, is causing massive levels of companies and consumers to switch to natural gas. This in turn is causing a natural phase out of coal and other more carbon intensive methods of power generation. Nat Gas emits 45% less carbon per unit than coal, so naturally, carbon emissions drop drastically with a large population shift to a cleaner burning fuel. 

 

 

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Topics: Natural Gas Pipeline Explosion, Fracking, Climate Change, Carbon Emissions, Emissions

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