Energy Market Updates

You would think that a $.60 price drop in the last week would have us excited, but this is now roughly the fourth time we have retreated from a record high on peace news. Although what is interesting is that this most recent drop has come over 5 sessions, over a holiday week, and not a massive drop off a soundbite. To add, it doesn’t appear that any concrete plans have emerged and fighting within the Iranian delegation may prolong any lasting truce. On the bright side, ship traffic through the Strait is roughly 43% of normal, seeing about 25 vessel pass in the last 24 hours. My aluminum hat wearing side thinks this is likely what the US wants. Let Iran self-destruct and quietly return to normal. This coming from a guy who still can’t figure out how to hang up a call on an iPhone.

Recall last summer when the news cycles were reporting the US had “less than 30 days supply of diesel”! Well, expect to hear that again soon as finished diesel inventories now sit at roughly 26 days of supply, where the unofficial warning level is about 30 days. Reality check… that is if everything stopped today, we would have 26 days…. truth is refineries are running at 90% capacity with the vast majority of finished and unfinished products being exported.

 After 25 years, it finally happened. I made the switch to an iPhone. So I apologize if I hung up on you, called you randomly, or sent an uncomprehensible text. I think...

 Once again the market is reacting to the sound bites given on the Iranian ordeal. Late Tuesday night we “were close to a deal”, causing a massive sell off in futures...

 Last week we were optimistic that markets would turn south with news that Iran and the US would be meeting over the weekend to hammer out a resolution. That all turned Saturday morning with a tweet that the meeting was off. The past week has shown little in way of the conflict ending anytime soon. A senior meeting at the White House indicated that we could be in for “months” long standoff, and the President stating that he would like the Russian-Ukraine conflict to end at the same time.

Apparently the Strait of Hormuz is operating on Bankers hours this week. After a promising $.45 drop on Friday, the reaction to the news has now seen futures take back all of the loss and then some.

 Who said you cant triple stamp a double stamp? In an effort to restart ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the US has begun a blockade of any ships going to or out of Iranian ports. Also attempting to secure passage for all other vessels. Effectively showing Iran they won't be able to fire upon vessels moving through the tight passage. Depending upon which news outlet you listen to, it appears to be working. Those countries who depend on Iranian product like China and India, are now forced into the discussions on some type of resolution.

Yesterday illustrates perfectly how reactive fuel markets are to world stress. You can look at ULSD futures as the blood pressure reading the financial world. Right now its reading 180 over 120….

I have said to many in the last week that even though pricing remained elevated, we appeared to be moving in the right direction. For thirty days the markets have been...

It has been hard to find any good news in the fuel industry lately. Add to that a Texas refinery fire that put offline a 2m gallon per day diesel unit on Tuesday which halted the market sell off seen the day before. The Market is now tasked with trying to identify how much of the 15 point plan to peace is attainable, valid, or even received by Iran. It is largely held that there may be several factions seeking control in Iran, making it difficult to achieve any type of agreements. As some ships start to trickle through the Strait of Hormuz, it still may be a while until we see any type of normalized traffic, as I am guessing it will turn into a fee based passage system. They should put some of those gantry systems like on the Mass Pike!