Ukraine Tension, Inventory Projections & Chinese Economic Data
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Futures Firm After Almost 2 Week Correction
NYMEX values appeared to find support just above the 2.90 level on front month HO after a long cold stretch. The Polar Vortex that gripped a large portion of the Country, and plagued us in the Northeast with long terminal lines, appears to be subsiding. Many of us are getting a well deserved breather as we return to somewhat normalcy.
NYMEX Makes an About-Face on Jobs Report
NYMEX Stays Range Bound with Strong Pull Back
Most pundits have been warning of upside breakout potential with this market for the last several sessions. When you really look at HO for the last four months, the defined range of 2.95 to 3.05 has held, with conviction. As much as I try to disprove the techies with fundamental basics, I am batting roughly .146 since October. That's a slump!
Different Day, Same Headline as Futures Retreat
Once again the NYMEX started off the session well into positive territory with a strong Sunday night open. Much of the gains were attributed to Chinese data released Sunday that showed its Industrial Output rose year over year, signaling stronger demand. But as the day wore on, continued worries about Europe, as the Italian Prime Minister abruptly resigned, appeared to be entering into Traders minds. That fear turned inward as the real concern centers around US distillate demand. Its Common knowledge that inventory levels of distillates are on the very low end of the range, so in the minds of most, the lack of demand is overshadowing the lack of product. Others point that this is just the season to book some profits as traders square up the quarter. I'm pleasantly surprised that we have maintained HO below the $2.95 level, a clear level of support is difficult to define at this time. At the close, Crude fell .37 to $85.56, RBOB was up only 7 points to $2.5981 and HEAT led the charge lower falling .0191 to $2.8962.
Positive Sales and Demand Data boosts RBOB
Early morning trading pushed all pits higher as news spread of Chinese Crude imports jumping 6%. With a Market desperately looking for direction, the slightest potential shift in sentiment can have large scale implications. As the morning moved on, and gasoline demand numbers were reported as an increase of 1.1% over last week, the buyers took early control and never looked back. Very similar to what happens when you score 4 goals and 6 minutes, a la Bruin nation, it makes for an early day. The empty netter was a retail sales figure that showed the losses were better than expected only showing a .2% decrease while a .3% decrease was anticipated. Remember, it is all about expectations. So it will be interesting to see how Wednesday plays out as most expect for builds across the board with the DOE numbers. While we are still some 22 cents off the high seen back in early April, we are only 27 cents off the low in early May. Again this range of 2.85 to 3.35 on Heat while vast appears to be the new normal. A very hard close pushed values higher with about 10 minutes left in the session. HEAT was teetering on even ground only to end up .02 to $3.1258, RBOB soared .0678 to $3.0646 and Crude added $2.07 to $99.37, still under the mythical line in the sand of $100 a barrel.
Seesaw action ends with mixed day, blame Chinese currency fluctuation
Late Sunday night I was surprised to see values up over 2 cents because after Friday’s movement I would have expected some sharp drops. That is until I saw China...
NYMEX waivers ahead of Inventories
We had anticipated some sideways action over the next few sessions as traders decide which bandwagon to jump on. Nothing was more evident than today that saw thin news...