Energy Market Updates

The International Energy Agency said it will release 60 million barrels of oil from emergency stocks in the next 30 days to alleviate supply problems caused by the...

Futures tumbled today after seeing double digit increases in the HEAT pit on Friday as fear of prolonged unrest overseas and the possibilty of a Governmental shut down loomed.  At the eleventh hour a deal was struck to keep the U.S. Government running with both sides claiming victory.  New reports this morning had Libya tension cooling as a proposed peace deal is on the table.  The problem is, the deal calls for Gadhafi to remain in power.  As one would expect, the deal has been accepted by the current regime but rejected by rebel forces.  It was somewhat relieving to see our first down day in the last nine sessions.  We are all looking for a healthy correction of the speculative buying that has pushed HEAT higher by almost 20 cents in the last 10 days.  With warm air finally making its way into the Northeast, we should see some length get pulled out of the HEAT pit.  At the Close, CRUDE fell $2.87 to $109.92, RBOB lost .0602 to $3.2005 and HEAT tumbled .0672 to $3.2525.  As we have said many times, one day does not make a trend, but it would be nice if this was the start. 

What appeared to be a solid retreat this morning turned into another solid up day for the NYMEX.  The early morning session had both pits down over two cents in electronic trading as word of a Chinese rate hike hit the wires and a possible slow down in demand for the worlds second largest consumers.  Additionally minutes from last month FED Reserve meeting realeased today noted several members voicing concern over the rapidly rising energy costs and the effects that would have on the growth pattern of the country.  But by mid morning, sentiment had changed with news once again surfacing that the oil port town of Brega in Libya was back in control of loyalist forces.  Intensified fighting between France and Ivory Coast over the areas rightful President also pushed prices higher as the growing fear of worldly strife has many investors searching for the one investment that is insulated.  At the close, Crude actually fell .13 to $108.34 while RBOB jumped another .0325 to $3.2013 and HEAT topped out at $3.1850 up .0136.

RBOB spent much of the day bouncing back and forth from positive to negative before finally ending stronger.   Heating Oil never broke negative but did tease with it about mid day.  Depending upon which news wire you read, Libyan rebelshave either lost control of a major oil port city or regained full control.  The lack of credible reports coming from the crisis is playing into the risk premium.   New data was released this morning that shouwed the economy grew by 3.1% in Q4, slightly above the expected 3.0%.  Also psuhing values higer was data showing the economy created an addtional 31k jobs in the last month.  How much of that is seasonal workers is yet to be determined.  The rosey view and geopolitical risk that continues to spread over northern Africa and the Mid East has pushed HO above the $3.14 level, closing up .0369 to $3.1714.  RBOB moved higher by .0175 to close at $3.1688.  Crude reached an 18 month high before closing up .53 to $108.47.  We had said that the market appears to fade after HEAT touched $3.14, the breakthrough of that resistance level today lends to higher prices in the future. 

With what appears to be a cruel joke by Mother Nature, sending us another 6 to 12 inches of snow for Friday, markets got the fuel they needed to push higher today.  While the winter weather may be a simple coincidence, the real driver today appears to the ongoing unrest in Libya.  After the President adressed the Nation Monday night, and all but assured us that NATO forces would take command and ground troops would not be committed, that plan is begining to look suspect.  Over the last few days, Rebel forces have made little if any ground against the Gaddafi regime.  Their reliance upon US and NATO air strikes to make any advances has put their chances of an overthrow in jeapordy.  This, even on the heels of a long time supporter of Gaddafi defecting.  Overnight the Lybian Foriegn Minister sought refuge, signaling to the West that the power appears to be fracturing.  However, with the President authorizing use of covert operations, many point to this as the first step in a drawn out conflict.  With Lybian product shut in, and Japaneese demand expected to pick up, we cant be all that surprised to see the bumps.  The key will be in how long it will take for the jump to be peeled off.  Speculative money appears in control for the time being and the slight drop in jobless claims is not facilitating a sell off by any means.  At the close, Crude rose $2.45 to $106.72, RBOB jumped .0436 to $$3.1076 and HEAT led the charge adding .0502 to $3.0898.