Energy Market Updates

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CRUDE

From Venezuela to Iran: A Volatile Week in Fuel

It has been yet another bizarre week in the fuel world, although we are relatively numb to the bizarre.  Almost two weeks after the removal of the former Venezuelan dictator, markets jumped roughly $.20 as focus shifted to the next crisis, Iran.   One would have thought we would see some additional downside or at least a calm period as the US tries to figure out its restructure plan for Venezuela.   

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Floating Barrels, Sinking Sentiment

Once again we ended last week with a nice correction only to give it all back so far this week.  Again finding ourselves smack dab in the middle of the summer range.  Forward looking sentiment appears to have fully accepted we might be in for a bear run soon.  A start to an Israeli-Hamas peace deal looks to be on the horizon.  A mixed bag of Inventory data this week that is likely to be corrected due to the shutdown-Distillate demand strangely jumped almost 8% over last year.

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Crude Inventory Build Overshadows Finished Product Decline

The large Crude inventory build yesterday overshadowed the decline in finished products and took the floor out of pricing yesterday.  Crude increased over 12 million barrels, largely due to the limited refinery activity in the past weeks.  Refineries are running at about 80% capacity due to maintenance, cold, and limited demand forecasts.  Fundamentals have pushed aside the risk premium in the last few days.  The Global conflict premium had shot diesel pricing up almost $.40 since the first of the year.  With distillate demand down about 10% compared to the same time last year, it makes refiners walk a tightrope on producing even with margins very high on distillates, in the $41 per barrel range currently.

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