Energy Market Updates

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Shipping Lanes & Supply Strains

Futures markets surged higher yesterday on both a breakdown of Ukrainian-Russian talks along with naval “exercises” by Russian and Iranian fleets next to the Straits of Hormuz. A long talked about chokepoint in shipping and oil movements, any stress in that region will trigger panic buying. Good news is that east coast cash prices for products did not move has high as futures, which is reflected in your pricing. Still Diesel futures sit roughly $.50 higher than early JAN, touching the very top end of the range. Warmer temps into the Northeast are also helping to ease physical pricing as product movement and usage gets back to a normal pace.

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Diesel Rebounds, Demand Lags, and Drones Hit Refineries

Diesel futures remain on the high side of the summer seasonal range, taking back all of last weeks losses.  Fundamentally, even as demand saw a little bit of a boost this past week, if you strip out exports (implied demand),  we are still well below last years figures.  Gasoline, while slightly more stable, is still soft on a national level.  The inelasticity of gasoline (people need gas to commute daily) tends to be overlooked more than Diesel as it has a direct relationship to the health of the overall economy.  If folks aren’t buying diesel, trucks aren’t running.   

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