Energy Market Updates

 As the ebb and flow of ship traffic in the Middle East returns to pre conflict levels, traders have cut roughly half the increase in futures pricing. Shipping rates...

 Deal signed, now what. Actually it’s a “memorandum of understanding”. Can you imagine the password on that Docusign email! A lot still has to fall into place before we...

 In a world of post first, verify later, it has become increasingly more difficult to put any sort of rational into market movements. One would expect today to see...

 Well, that escalated quickly. On Friday afternoon tweets of lifting a blockade and free flowing ships had futures continuing their downward spiral. But a few hours...

You would think that a $.60 price drop in the last week would have us excited, but this is now roughly the fourth time we have retreated from a record high on peace news. Although what is interesting is that this most recent drop has come over 5 sessions, over a holiday week, and not a massive drop off a soundbite. To add, it doesn’t appear that any concrete plans have emerged and fighting within the Iranian delegation may prolong any lasting truce. On the bright side, ship traffic through the Strait is roughly 43% of normal, seeing about 25 vessel pass in the last 24 hours. My aluminum hat wearing side thinks this is likely what the US wants. Let Iran self-destruct and quietly return to normal. This coming from a guy who still can’t figure out how to hang up a call on an iPhone.

Recall last summer when the news cycles were reporting the US had “less than 30 days supply of diesel”! Well, expect to hear that again soon as finished diesel inventories now sit at roughly 26 days of supply, where the unofficial warning level is about 30 days. Reality check… that is if everything stopped today, we would have 26 days…. truth is refineries are running at 90% capacity with the vast majority of finished and unfinished products being exported.

 After 25 years, it finally happened. I made the switch to an iPhone. So I apologize if I hung up on you, called you randomly, or sent an uncomprehensible text. I think...

 Once again the market is reacting to the sound bites given on the Iranian ordeal. Late Tuesday night we “were close to a deal”, causing a massive sell off in futures...

 Last week we were optimistic that markets would turn south with news that Iran and the US would be meeting over the weekend to hammer out a resolution. That all turned Saturday morning with a tweet that the meeting was off. The past week has shown little in way of the conflict ending anytime soon. A senior meeting at the White House indicated that we could be in for “months” long standoff, and the President stating that he would like the Russian-Ukraine conflict to end at the same time.

Apparently the Strait of Hormuz is operating on Bankers hours this week. After a promising $.45 drop on Friday, the reaction to the news has now seen futures take back all of the loss and then some.