Energy Market Updates

Natural gas hit $5/mmBTU on the NYMEX for the first time in over 3 years last week, over concern about supply and a increase in demand due to to continuing frigid temperatures throughout the country. As of Jan 30, prices have backed off some but the underlying supply issues behind the spike may still play a relevant role in Nat Gas volatility going forward. 

The spike involved inventory reports showing Nat Gas storage 13% below the 5 year average which raised some supply concerns. Additionally, production can be affected by extreme cold by what are referred to as "freeze offs" - pipes become constricted from frozen liquid, diminishing their output capacity. Analysts speculated that if the cold extends well into February, we may not see the anticipated price corrections as continually high demand will push prices up further. Again, prices have backed off a little bit, but with another cold snap we could be having deja vu on the issue.

Natural Gas has been touted as a cheaper, more efficient way to heat than using heating oil (the EIA estimates 50% of Americans use Nat Gas as their primary heating source, compared to roughly 6% on heating oil, the majority of which are in the North East). A major selling point when heat prices skyrocketed was that Natural Gas prices were less volatile - but as Natural Gas conversions to homes and buildings happen left and right, and Nat Gas spikes on the NYMEX is that really true anymore?

Looking at prices for Nat Gas versus Heat isn't apples to apples given the way each is measured, but if you convert the cost for Natural Gas versus Heating Oil per therm you can get an idea of the comparison.  

You get about 35% more BTUs out of oil, so basically if Nat Gas ends up landing at a spot where its not at least 40% cheaper than oil, the price advantage breaks down. Additionally, thats product cost alone, not factoring utility fees and the like. 

Currently Natural Gas still strongly holds the price advantage, but without serious pipeline and transport fixes, supply crunches will likely continue - particularly in the Northeast where spot prices are incredibly higher than the national average. It will be interesting to see how prices settle out (or not) over the coming months.

NYMEX values appeared to find support just above the 2.90 level on front month HO after a long cold stretch.  The Polar Vortex that gripped a large portion of the Country, and plagued us in the Northeast with long terminal lines, appears to be subsiding.  Many of us are getting a well deserved breather as we return to somewhat normalcy.  

The recent correction has shaved off roughly 18 cents on Heat and close to .20 on RBOB.  Bulls returned as new unemployment figures were released showing that while the actual rate was down to 6.7%, the economy failed to add the expected 200k jobs in the last month.  Many point to the loss of December seasonal workers and the fact that more and more Americans have simply stopped looking for a job.  This caused the greenback to fall, thus pushing Commodities higher.  The new talk will ultimately put immediate pressure on new FED Chief Yellen and her stance on any new rate changes.  Strong foreign import data also put supported markets as China was said to have a nearly 14% increase in Crude over the last 30 days.  Look for next week to be a choppy session with HO testing and ultimately bouncing off the 2.90 mark.  

At the Close, Crude added  1.06 to close at 92.72, RBOB closed up .0265 at 2.6691, and heat settled out +.0193 at 2.9407

Last night API's set the early tone for todays rice action as preliminary numbers showed large draws in distillates.  Those numbers were confirmed this morning with the EIA releasing a staggering 4.8mbl draw in distillates vs expectations of a mere 700k.  Gasoline was down slightly at 345k and Crude showed a slight build at 375k bls.  On the surface it appears distillate demand is on the rise, not only in the US, but also from an export position.  Soon after the data released, pits jumped almost .04, and stayed in that range for most of the afternoon.  Supporting the bullish price action was FED meeting minutes which appear to confirm last weeks chatter that we will start to see some significant unwinding of the Bond buying program in the months to come, as well as a positive retail report for October.  The hope is that a positive October doesn't turn into a lackluster November and December which is often the case in the retail world.  News hit mid afternoon of US-Iranian talks ended almost as quickly as it started, one report said the talks lasted less than 10 minutes with few words spoken.  Even with the draw in distillates, the market appears to be well supplied as Crude actual lost .01 to close out at $93.33, RBOB added .0235 to $2.6630 and HO led the gainers settling up .0487 to $2.9545.  Again, well within its comfort zone.

We have all been in this far too long to get overly excited when the pits fall a few cents - like New England weather, wait and it will change.  

The recent sell off was primarily pinned to the expectation of growing Crude supplies (released this week on Thursday due to the Holiday), a better than expected Jobs report, and the talk of unwinding the government bond buying program.  That all came to a halt this morning as renewed concerns of global strife, specifically Libya, filled the newswires.  

Brent Crude surged early and brought the US markets along for the ride. Still, I have to give weight to some of the technical aspects, as HO has bounced higher again after touching the 2.85 level.  Recall, this has been the much talked about seasonal support level that has yet to be broken for more than a session.   

Heat still remains comfortable trading in the wide range of 2.85 to 3.05, with small breakouts to either side.  One would expect RBOB to get more volatile as global demand expectations have recently been revised higher and the current values appear to be relatively inexpensive.   

At the close, Crude gained .84 to $93.88, RBOB closed up +.0416, and HEAT settled out +.0445

Front month Heat continues to find comfort above the 2.95 level as traders weigh the recent barrage of news.  Earlier in the week, many feared an almost inevitable Government shutdown, but those fears were erased late Wednesday as a House Bill passed that would fund activities for the next several weeks.  While Inventories were in my opinion somewhat Bearish, the news didn't take so well yesterday and pushed futures up slightly ahead of today's report that showed the US economic growth rate fell in line with expectations with an increase of 2.5%.  Additionally, new applications for unemployment benefits fell by roughly 5000 to 305,000.  The Bullish overtures of a growing economy almost always will spur a rise in Commodity futures.  The Syrian problem continues to drag on in a political stalemate as Russia successfully blocked a UN resolution which would have authorized military strikes.    While news may be what most are pointing to as the driver, one must give the technical analyst his due.  The Failure of front month HO to settle below the 2.95 mark has spurred buying over  the last two sessions.  This level continues to be a huge support area.  At the Close, Crude gained .37 to $103.03, RBOB added .0321 to $2.7050 and HO settles up .0306 to $3.0037

As news continually breaks on developments on the Syrian conflict and the potential implications of US or other world power intervention in the region, stocks are dropping and commodities are going through the roof.

US Secretary of State John Kerry announced this week that there was “undeniable” evidence that the recent chemical weapons attacks in Syria were perpetrated by the Assad regime. The announcement in tandem with the presence of UN Weapons inspectors being fired upon in the country prompted speculation that the US may intervene with military action. Additionally, the
recent attacks cross the “red line” declaration issued by the Obama administration several months ago regarding chemical weapons.

The threat of US intervention has prompted Global Markets to react heavily to the news. In the US, the Dow fell Tuesday by over 170 to hit a two month low of 14,776.13 and the Nasdaq fell 78.13 points to 3579.44. Stocks took a hit while commodities shot up, notably gold in both the US & Canada. Brent Crude hit a six month high on Tuesday in the wake of the rumors of
military action, and US Crude rose over 3 dollars as well. Oil Prices have risen 15% over the past 3 months on concern over violent civil war in Egypt, and now conflict in Syria is pushing them even higher.

The issue with Syria is complex – Syria itself is not a major exporter. The issue is essentially concern that US intervention in Syria will spark regional unrest as well as create increased tensions with other major world powers, specifically Russia and China. Consensus seems to be that the major issue with intervention in the conflict could interrupt export and production schedules, particularly those in Iraq and Libya, according to cbc.ca.

It’s estimated that about 1% of global oil supply runs through the bay of Iskenderun in Turkey, only a few miles off the Syrian border, and tensions in Syria could threaten this export route, according to Olivier Jakob of Petromatrix in Reuters on Tuesday. Disruption of this supply
route would have a deep impact on European and Asian markets, particularly if tension spreads throughout the Middle East, which produces over 1/3 of Global Oil supply.

All news today was nothing but feed for the Bulls that have been in control of the pits over the last week.  After HO dipped below 2.95 late last week, buying has come back with force.  Today was strong out of the gate and while RBOB was tamed slightly, HO kept right on rolling.  NOAA models now show Tropical Storm Erin churning in the mid Atlantic with an expected path set on Puerto Rico for sometime late next week.  First storm of the season always brings the buyers out.  Data on the economic front showed the US had the lowest unemployment claims in just over six years.  While this is good for the economy, not so good for Future pricing.  Along side that, most now expect the FED to significantly slow down their Bond buying program over the next sixty days as the economy shows signs of improvement.  Finally, the continued and recently heightened unrest in Egypt, has many concerned over the regions safety.  Egypt largely controls the Suez canal which is a vital shipping lane for Crude barges, anything that can remotely affect Crude shipments will push futures higher.  Still optimism remains as RBOB shrugged off the news and was only able to muster a 15 point gain to close at $2.9845, while HO jumped another .0250 to $3.0728 ( the high end of the wide range  we have been in) .  Crude added .48 to $107.33.  I stay optimistic for lower prices coming as the semi mixed close is always a key point to momentum swings.

An Ounce of Prevention is Better than a Pound of Cure!!

According to WGGB.com, a Springfield MA based call center is closing due to the potential service interruptions the company has incurred and  forsees based on the extreme weather Western Mass has been hit with in the past few years. This closure will cost over 100 people their jobs in the Springfield area. According to their CFO, the assurance of 24/7/365 service they provide to their customers prompted the companies decision to move to a less disruptive area. (In this case, Chicago).

Service interruption is a primary concern, especially with the ever increasing data storage requirements and 24-7 nature of many industries today. Whether you run a  hospital emergency room, a  research and development lab or simply run servers to back up your financial data -  the fact is, you can NOT afford to lose your power and lose your data.

So what can you do about it?

An Emergency Generator. But how do you ensure your generator is ready to handle whatever nature throws your way?  You contract with a reputable fuel supplier who will guarantee that you are fueled and ready at all times. That’s where we come in.

Dennis K Burke’s Emergency Generator Program is the best way to guarantee that you’re ready. We guarantee delivery time windows along with a quarterly maintenance check-up that provides your fuel quality additives to keep your tank ready to go.

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July 16th - Energy Bulls showed their muscle today by posting solid gains after an ever so slight dip yesterday.  On the back of an early weak dollar, RBOB and HO were up almost .03 cents in the early morning.  After what appeared to be some resistance touching, futures slid to even shortly after Open outcry, even posting some negative numbers.  The slide was short-lived as traders began to focus on this weeks inventory levels that are projected to show a draw of roughly 3mbls of Crude, signaling a rising demand.  Small refinery news and traders rolling positions into AUG also contributed to today's rise.   Personally, I have said for months that HO is stuck in this large new normal range of 2.75 to 3.05, being at the top of that range now, one has to speculate at how much higher we can go.  At the close, Crude was able to shed some pounds finishing down .32 to $106.00, HO added .0208 to $3.0469 and RBOB gained .0314 to $3.1343.  RBOB appears to be driving the market so Wednesdays price action will be intresting.

A few days away from the "official" start of the driving season saw gas prices tumble.... Or at least that what the news outlets will be saying.  Futures corrected today as the DOE report showed a strong 3mbl build while the Trade expected 1m gallon draw.  Distillates and Crude were somewhat bearish showing draws of 1.1mbl and 338k respectively.    Losses could have been much steeper, but selling appeared to be tempered by the fact that most believe the FED will continue stimulus measures until a clear sign of economic improvements.  The assumption is that should the FED start to pull back their measures, it could cause a significant sell off as people get rid of long positions.  HEAT still seems content be range bound between 3.10 and 2.75, with a tighter range of 2.85 to 2.95.  At the close, Crude fell $1.90 to $94.28, RBOB lost .0264 to $2.8194 and HEAT took the brunt of the hit dropping .0554 to $2.8736, which is surprising since the builds were seen in Gas.