Energy Market Updates

Once again the NYMEX started off the session well into positive territory with a strong Sunday night open. Much of the gains were attributed to Chinese data released Sunday that showed its Industrial Output rose year over year, signaling stronger demand. But as the day wore on, continued worries about Europe, as the Italian Prime Minister abruptly resigned, appeared to be entering into Traders minds. That fear turned inward as the real concern centers around US distillate demand. Its Common knowledge that inventory levels of distillates are on the very low end of the range, so in the minds of most, the lack of demand is overshadowing the lack of product. Others point that this is just the season to book some profits as traders square up the quarter. I'm pleasantly surprised that we have maintained HO below the $2.95 level, a clear level of support is difficult to define at this time. At the close, Crude fell .37 to $85.56, RBOB was up only 7 points to $2.5981 and HEAT led the charge lower falling .0191 to $2.8962.

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What a difference a week makes! Last Monday we were gearing up for a strong week ahead of QE3. Today saw the entire weeks gains in the Heating Oil pit get erased, finishing slightly below last Mondays close down .0761 to $3.1634. That is after the pit pulled back some even more robust losses that at about 1:30 had HO down .12 and RBOB down just over .11 cents. We said the 3.25 level on prompt month HO was a pretty strong resistance area and today's OCT HO high just happened to be 3.2500. Technical- schmechnical, it appears as though rumors abound that there was an SPR release of gallons happening. To which is still do not fully understand, if the Government has to maintain required levels in the SPR, are they not just selling high and replacing at a lower price later? To be clear on QE3, of which the Fed is buying back some $4 billion in mortgage backed securities, this had and still has the potential to be bullish for commodities should the dollar fall. But lets live for today and be happy the market fell today. Crude finished down $2.38 to $96.62 and RBOB lost .0723 to 2.9433.

While much of todays chatter centered around the wild cash blowout of gasoline on Friday, up some .24 in NY harbor, markets found a way to turn positive ahead of the close. Many are betting that a new round of Quantitative Easing, also known as QE3, will be announced after this weeks FED meeting. This bet was doubled down after Fridays disappointing payroll figures.While the stimulus plans are designed to boost economic activity, Commodity prices are often collateral damage and many agree that we might see higher prices with this round. Keeping the pits in check are the fundamentals which, even besides this weekends short term blowout, the nation is well supplied. Additionally there was a memo sent by the Saudi Oil Minister confirming the oversupply of product as well as the unsubstantiated value of the current marketplace. Look for the remainder of the week to be a wild one. At the Close, Crude finished up .12 to $96.54, HEAT gained .0179 to $3.1668 and RBOB .0044 to $3.0240

The speculators jumped on the buying train as soon as trading opened Sunday evening and we saw RBOB jump to as high as 3.2050 (+.1250)before cooling off ahead of open outcry. The Explosion at the 650k bpd Amuay refinery in Venezuela is said to have caused at least 25 deaths and substantial damage to the surround area. With all the devastation, the unit is said to be back online by the end of the week. This facility is said to supply roughly 360 bpd of gasolines to the east coast. Additionally, the threat of Hurricane Isaac to the Gulf region has skyrocketed RBOB values. The storm, expected to make landfall sometime Tuesday evening, appears to be taking the same path as Rita and Katrina. This time however, it is much smaller in size and most offshore rigs have been evacuated and shutdown. The key to remember about storms is while it does take product off the market, it also reduces demand. The fact that HEAT finished marginally higher is a big win for Bears, considering it was up over .07 at one point. At the Close, Crude actually closed down .68 to $95.47, HO was up .0017 to $3.1118 and RBOB jumped .0768 to $3.1548.

After last nights API data release that showed Crude suffering a massive 11.2 mbl draw, most were awaiting todays DOE numbers with one eye closed, hoping it was an aberration. For those watching the screens at precisely 10:30 this morning you saw Rbob spike 4 cents and HO jump 3. While not as horrific as an 11 million barrel draw, Crude still lost 6.5mbl according to the DOE. Gasolines fell 2.2mbl and distillates fell 974k. Still, far more than expectations. Other Bullish influences to the Market early were the Federal Reserve meetings that many had been betting on another round of stimulus. That gamble didn't pay off as a short time ago they announced that while the economic turn around has slowed, it doesn't warrant another round of stimulus... yet. The interesting note to the entire session is that Crude, at its peak today, was only up $1.50. In the last half hour of the trade, HO looked to be going negative as the air was let out of the balloon. RBOB inflated to much to peel off any of the gains and finished up .0599 to $2.8342, HO gained .0108 to 2.8588 and Crude added .85 to $88.91. Thursday sets up to be another exciting day with Jobless figures due out at 8:30.

As always, the EIA site is an invaluable resource for snapshotting inventory, futures and spot pricing. I've highlighted some relevant snapshots below, but for more information you can also visit http://ir.eia.gov/ this will allow you to reference any of the weekly/daily inventory reports (weeklys are published every Wednesday)

For many of us who log in to check the market on Sunday evenings at PM, it is often times like Christmas morning to see what the surprise will be. Last night we got a lump of coal to see Commodity futures skyrocketing on news of a Spanish banks receiving a $120 billion dollar bailout. Heating Oil was as high as +.07 at one point. The infusion of cash looks to signal that the Euro will be around for a while longer. As the sun rose, the speculative gains were peeled away and the wheels fell off the cart with about an hour left in the session. Crude finished less $1.40 to close at $82.70, RBOB slipped .0286 to $2.6566 and HEAT fell .0364 to $3.6357, a whopping .11 cents lower than Sunday evening. It appeared that the bullish appointments on the calendar just could not keep the rally going. Next week, Greece has elections, Iran is set to meet with a group of five Nations on its nuclear program with Israel going increasingly impatient and the scheduled FOMC meeting. Many have commented on the limit to the downside in the pits after retracing some 60 cents in the last 50 days. With Europe still not out of the woods, the trend is your friend.

Lets take a minute to put this month into perspective as we all recognize our short memories. On May 1, HO opened at 3.1783. Todays close of 2.7062 is an astounding .4721 cent retracement. For several weeks we spoke of a fall to the 2.75 level on prompt month Heat, and it has become a reality. With the majority of talk centered around the ongoing European crisis, today saw more length shed from Commodities on the heels of continued growing Crude stocks and some uninspiring job data. The delayed DOE report showed Crude adding 2.2mbbls against an expected build of 800k, yet gasolines fell 832k and a rather bullish distillate draw of 1.7mbbls, verses expectations of +200k and +500k respectively. Traders apparently feel that Crude levels are so robust, it far outweighs and week to week changes in refined products. Secondly, ADP's monthly report on new job growth fell short of expectations as it showed 133k unit gain. Support that figure was new jobless claims rose by roughly 10,000 this past month. All in all, the market continues to search for a bottom as the US dollar gains strength and length is pulled from Commodities. At the close, Crude fell 1.29 to $86.53, RBOB lost .0332 to $2.8250 and HEAT slipped another .0336 to $2.7062