Energy Market Updates

Fuel pricing had a nice correction going the last couple of weeks, both gasoline and diesel were down about $.15. That was put on pause yesterday as the focus shifted...

It is very easy in this business to look back and think “what just happened?” With a relatively calm news cycle the last two weeks, calm in the sense of more of the...

I talk a lot about the short term happenings, inventories, missile strikes, etc.  The real key is to look at the long term, minimally the mid-range.  While diesel demand kicked up a whopping 10% last week, the four week average is still down by 3.8%.  Similar with gasoline demand that showed strength last week, but is still down about 1% on a four week average.  As core inflation finally ticked down 2 basis points this week, what are the long term effects, should that trend continue?  The FED should start to cut interest rates, slowly over time.  Lower borrowing costs typically stimulate an economy, thus pushing up demand for fuels, and higher prices.  We are about $.15 higher on diesel pricing than we were last year at this time, and spent much of the early summer in a tight range, we may have some downside left as war premiums are shed.

In what should have been the start of a nice 3 day pullback yesterday, turned into a resetting of ideas. While not long term positive news, morning reports of Inflation...

It has been a tough start for many this summer, the heavy rains throughout the region have delayed projects, hindered marina activity, and limited travel in general.  New Englanders, like the market, are resilient.  We always find a way to bounce back, move forward and DKB will be right there with you. 

Oil markets moved higher this week primarily on the “surprise” production cut announced Sunday evening.  Recall two weeks ago we cautioned   “ All eyes will be on the FED and what they announce in the next meeting, more rate hikes or not?  Also look to see if OPEC+ decides to cut production to bolster prices in the coming weeks.”    

While it might be hard to think about cold weather with temperatures in the 60s across the region, keep in mind that all too often, we still have an arctic blast come through late February into March.  Staying the course with a winterized fuel is critical to a smooth operation this time of year. 

The past two weeks has seen ULSD rise, and subsequently fall almost $.20 on the front month.  Much of the dip in the last few days came as market players were able to digest some of the details in the 785 page Inflation Reduction Act which appears to moving its way through.  One piece which many believe will have the most impact on futures is that the bill revives lease sales canceled or delayed by President Biden including: one in Alaska’s Cook Inlet  and three in the Gulf of Mexico.  This section also appears to require the Biden Administration to adopt Trump era directives for 2022 oil and gas leasing established.

With Friday and Mondays' sessions cutting into the recent losses on ULSD by about $.35, it’s important to keep in mind the trend is still your friend. With early morning action seeing ULSD down $.08, we are still down over $.80 in the last few weeks. 

The volatility within the ULSD pit continues to keep everyone scrambling.  $.20 swings from high to low have become the norm.  That coupled the lack of product in the Northeast is putting real stress on not only suppliers but customers alike.  As we mentioned a few days ago, refiners are stocking up on crude and producing as much distillates as they can.  Evident in yesterdays Inventory report that showed Crude surge 8.5mbls and distillate output up over 160,000 bpd.  While diesel inventories still remain low, down almost 1mbls, the demand numbers, down almost 200bpd are pointing to sure fire demand destruction.