Energy Market Updates

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Basis Blowout

Cash vs Future Spread & Precarious Supply Picture Keeping Diesel Users on Edge

Many refer to Diesel as being the backbone of the American Economy.  Trucks, trains, equipment, and ships all rely upon diesel for power.  So when a blowout happens, it can affect mostly all aspects of our daily lives - from the food we buy, to the clothes we wear, and even the way we operate our businesses, even if those blowouts are short lived. 

Since last Thursday we have seen the spread between future prices and cash prices grow to $.80 on Monday only to subsequently fall to $.55 yesterday.  (see chart below).  Tuesday and Wednesday saw diesel values weaken as deals appeared to be getting done for physical product delivered into New York Harbor. 

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Cash vs NYMEX Blowout on Supply Concerns Keeps Diesel Elevated

If there is one thing that I am sure of in all my years in this Industry it is that Customers do not like surprises

The last two weeks (or two years for that matter!) have certainly offered up many surprises.  News over the last three days has highlighted “Crude prices falling”, however, the disconnect from Crude pricing to the finished diesel product pricing has never been more sharply contrasted. Front month Diesel futures have once again skyrocketed $.80 to touch the $4.00 level in the last two weeks for the fifth time.  The rapid rise and rapid drop cycle doesn’t seem to be ending anytime soon. 

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Futures Move Higher as Stimulus Plan Takes Shape

While much of todays chatter centered around the wild cash blowout of gasoline on Friday, up some .24 in NY harbor, markets found a way to turn positive ahead of the close. Many are betting that a new round of Quantitative Easing, also known as QE3, will be announced after this weeks FED meeting. This bet was doubled down after Fridays disappointing payroll figures.While the stimulus plans are designed to boost economic activity, Commodity prices are often collateral damage and many agree that we might see higher prices with this round. Keeping the pits in check are the fundamentals which, even besides this weekends short term blowout, the nation is well supplied. Additionally there was a memo sent by the Saudi Oil Minister confirming the oversupply of product as well as the unsubstantiated value of the current marketplace. Look for the remainder of the week to be a wild one. At the Close, Crude finished up .12 to $96.54, HEAT gained .0179 to $3.1668 and RBOB .0044 to $3.0240

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