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Typically Inventory levels and price direction have an inverse relationship. When Inventories rise, prices fall…. When Inventories fall, prices rise. As one said, “this ain’t no typical market”.
We suggested last week that there would likely be sideways action in the market as everyone digests what impact production cuts will have, and that is exactly what has happened. We have seen large daily moves, but overall we are just about where we were a week ago.
Oil markets moved higher this week primarily on the “surprise” production cut announced Sunday evening. Recall two weeks ago we cautioned “ All eyes will be on the FED and what they announce in the next meeting, more rate hikes or not? Also look to see if OPEC+ decides to cut production to bolster prices in the coming weeks.”
A surprise increase in Distillate inventories fueled a sell off across all pits yesterday. Distillates grew by 300k barrels while most expected a decline of about 1.5m. This, coupled with surprisingly low demand numbers (down almost 7%) saw the pit erase the roughly $.15 in gains added in the last two weeks. It appears that we are continuing that slow progression downwards with mindless swings in between.
On February 24, 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine thrusting oil markets into one of the most volatile periods in decades, reaching prices never seen before. At just over a year later, the APR contract is just $.01 off of where we were when this all started. (see close on 2.24.23 below and chart) . The circumstances around the recent drop are obviously derived from the recent banking meltdown.
Futures markets appear to be content with being rangebound as the last month has seen us bounce back and forth by about $.25 in Diesel. The last four days has seen diesel futures fall almost $.15 in value.
We are now a year removed from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and like many times in the past, we seemed to have made it through an extremely volatile period. Since the onset of this “new normal” we have stressed the need to have a strong relationship with your supplier to help navigate the ever changing landscape. Recall that we said the $2.65 level for the ULSD contract is a key support level, we have now hit that four times and bounced off it (see below) and the market is truly searching for direction with a $.25 range the last few weeks.
While it might be hard to think about cold weather with temperatures in the 60s across the region, keep in mind that all too often, we still have an arctic blast come through late February into March. Staying the course with a winterized fuel is critical to a smooth operation this time of year.
Diesel futures continue to oscillate on both technical and fundamental influences. We had mentioned to many, don't be surprised if the March contract touches the support level of $2.65 area when in it was trading above $3.25 in late January. Low and behold on Monday it bounced off $2.6649 before jumping another $.20 over the next two sessions.
The wild ride continues as in just under two weeks, we have erased $.50 of value on the futures market. Front month ULSD fell $.1937 yesterday setting us up for a test of key technical support levels.