The EIA released its Short Term Energy Outlook today with its projections for both Crude prices and US Crude Oil production through 2016. It also projects where we will be on retail gasoline, natural gas storage, and electricity for 2015 & 2016.
In a nutshell, the outlook is as follows:
- Brent is expected to average $61/bbl for 2015 and $67/bbl in 2016. The prior projected price for Brent in 2016 was $70/bbl
- WTI is also forecast to drop about $3 dollars from the prior projection level for 2016. It forecasts WTI for 2015 to be up about a dollar higher than prior projections (up to $55.35/bbl)
- Crude production is expected to dwindle slightly through early 2016, but the total projected volumes were revised up slightly - the new projected numbers are 9.4mmbpd in 2015 and 9.3mmbpd in 2016
- Natural gas injections are expected to continue to climbing over their historic highs through 2016.
- Retail gasoline is expected to decline slightly through the end of the year, backing off its current yearly high.
- Additionally, for consumers, the EIA is projecting an almost 5% increase in electricity bills for this summer season.
Other mentions of note, Brent saw its highest monthly average of 2015 in May, a $5 jump over its April average price. Retail gasoline also hit its high for the year in May. All of this despite inventory builds and OPEC production levels remaining at highs.
The EIA Inventory Report publishes tommorow morning, we'll have to see how that impacts the NYMEX. Hopefully its an easier day than today, where we saw ULSD jump up .0631 to settle at 1.9179, and RBOB jumped .0696 to 2.0771 at the close.