Energy Market Updates

July 16th - Energy Bulls showed their muscle today by posting solid gains after an ever so slight dip yesterday.  On the back of an early weak dollar, RBOB and HO were up almost .03 cents in the early morning.  After what appeared to be some resistance touching, futures slid to even shortly after Open outcry, even posting some negative numbers.  The slide was short-lived as traders began to focus on this weeks inventory levels that are projected to show a draw of roughly 3mbls of Crude, signaling a rising demand.  Small refinery news and traders rolling positions into AUG also contributed to today's rise.   Personally, I have said for months that HO is stuck in this large new normal range of 2.75 to 3.05, being at the top of that range now, one has to speculate at how much higher we can go.  At the close, Crude was able to shed some pounds finishing down .32 to $106.00, HO added .0208 to $3.0469 and RBOB gained .0314 to $3.1343.  RBOB appears to be driving the market so Wednesdays price action will be intresting.

After last nights API data release that showed Crude suffering a massive 11.2 mbl draw, most were awaiting todays DOE numbers with one eye closed, hoping it was an aberration. For those watching the screens at precisely 10:30 this morning you saw Rbob spike 4 cents and HO jump 3. While not as horrific as an 11 million barrel draw, Crude still lost 6.5mbl according to the DOE. Gasolines fell 2.2mbl and distillates fell 974k. Still, far more than expectations. Other Bullish influences to the Market early were the Federal Reserve meetings that many had been betting on another round of stimulus. That gamble didn't pay off as a short time ago they announced that while the economic turn around has slowed, it doesn't warrant another round of stimulus... yet. The interesting note to the entire session is that Crude, at its peak today, was only up $1.50. In the last half hour of the trade, HO looked to be going negative as the air was let out of the balloon. RBOB inflated to much to peel off any of the gains and finished up .0599 to $2.8342, HO gained .0108 to 2.8588 and Crude added .85 to $88.91. Thursday sets up to be another exciting day with Jobless figures due out at 8:30.

You know winter has arrived when it takes over 3 hours to travel 50 miles on the Mass Pike. The cold snap and glancing blow of a Nor’easter to the New England area had...

With only 3 up days to speak of in the last two weeks, the early morning gains have become increasingly more difficult to give any credence to. The day saw pits start off up over a penny a piece but as the opening bell range, price fell off the shelf. Front month RBOB, under pressure as a lame duck product, fell .04 cents in a matter of minutes. As investors continue to point towards struggling economic picture as reasons for the retreats, the failure for HEAT to break the $1.95 support level tells another story. For the third time since Mid May, HEAT has touched the $1.95 area only to shoot to the $2.20 level in the following 30 day stretch. Not that past performance is any indication of future potential, but it sure does look convincing. (see chart below) As the day wore and the Dollar got stronger, it appeared that funds were content in some profit taking. At the Close, Crude fell .72 to $73.10, HEAT dropped .0156 to $1.9554 and front month RBOB lost .0441 to $1.8810 while OCT RBOB lost only .0285 to $1.8390.

It was clear today that traders had no idea what they wanted from the session and were riding the emotional wave on any piece of news released.  The morning news was dominated that yet another build in supplies were expected therefore pushing values down.  As the bottom feeders were able to push the pits back into positive ground, wires reported that Greece will more than likely default on their loans.  That sent the entire complex south.  But the resiliency of RBOB and HEAT to maintain some value while Crude tumbled has, many scratching their heads. Crude tumbled $1.76 to $82.44 but HEAT lost only .0068 to $2.2303 and RBOB fell only .0141 to $2.3268.  Those types of drops on Crude typically produce a 4 or 5 cent drop in the products at these levels.  Goes to show that someone out there still wants to ride this wave higher and is willing to put their money where their mouth is.  As the Dow continues to get slammed right now, down over 100 points, look for some fear selling on Wednesday despite what inventory levels are.