Mark Pszeniczny

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Futures continue to rise, buying spree after pause

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Sep 20, 2010 9:51:00 PM

After Fridays close, we were cautiously optimistic that we might have some downside over the next few sessions. That theory was quickly thrown in the garbage can as news spread of the FMOC more than likely keeping interest rates at historically low rates. This appeared to cause a buying spree in all commodities and Crude was no exception. Current idea is that the state of the economy has investors worried, with the FED not moving rates, only solidifies their position. What is odd is that there is data out there that appears to support a more positive economic outlook. One of those is the DOT numbers that showed total miles traveled in July were up almost as full percent. But as we know, that fuzzy grey area between market perception and reality are often much farther apart than we understand. What we do know is that the pits appear to be comfortable within their current range with support still at the $1.95 level and resistance at the $2.25 area for HEAT. At the Close, Crude rose $1.20 to $74.86, RBOB gained .0304 to $1.9496 and HEAT vaulted .0402 to $2.1394.

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Topics: NYMEX, The Market, HEAT, DOT numbers, FED rates

NYMEX Bulls remain in power

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Sep 13, 2010 9:49:00 PM

All too often in this Industry we hear or see things that so called experts attribute to the rising cost of fuel. The vast majority of these events are so far away from our personal bubble that it is hard for the normal person to understand the affects. So for the past several days we have talked about the Enbridge Pipeline leak that has put the entire market into a free for all as we head into turnaround time. This pipeline has the capacity to supply roughly 700,000 bpd to the US, more importantly a key end point in this pipeline is Cushing, Oklahoma. Cushing is often considered as the benchmark point for Crude in the US. So even though we know there are ample amounts of Crude throughout all PADD’s, with Cushing stocks off, the psychology among investors is that there is or will be a shortage of Crude, implied or otherwise. Lesson is, the Oil market is a small, small World. With China showing stronger than expected Manufacturing rates last month, the rally carried on today. Heat has risen over 17 cents in almost two weeks. Again, the bounce of the front month contract off the $1.95 level for the fourth time this year appears to have solidified the yearly low. At the close, Crude gained .74 to $77.19 (slightly above the widely talked about resistance level of $77. RBOB added .0075 to $1.9806 and HEAT lead the charge gaining .0183 to $2.1227.

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Topics: NYMEX, The Market, Enbridge Pipeline

After Gains, Futures content to stay range bound

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Aug 30, 2010 9:48:00 PM

After three days of solid gains that saw the HEAT chart move from testing support levels to meandering around mid range.  Today was somewhat uneventful even with 3 major stories playing in the minds of traders.  On Friday the FED chairman announced that they would take swift and immediate action to ward off any possible threat of a double dip recession which caused prices to continue to rise on Sunday night.  Additionally, Hurricane Earl, currently east of Cuba, is expected to move of the eastern seaboard and possibly give the Northeast a bath on Friday evening.  This event appears to be having a somewhat bearish reaction on the market as any storm away from the Gulf is a good thing.  Finally, Consumer spending for July came in slightly higher than expected and as a result a good sell off was seen in the pits.  What was lining up for another higher closed swiftly turned negative.  Again the range from 1.95 to 2.25 is intact and we are dead set in the middle of it as we were for most of July.  At the close Crude fell .47 to $74.70, RBOB lost .0138 to $1.9341 and HEAT led the way falling .0191 to $2.0252.  This week is typically a high vacation week with volumes thin, expect changes to be muted in either direction.

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Topics: The Market, HEAT, CRUDE, Hurricane Earl

NYMEX continues to slide, tests support

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Aug 23, 2010 9:47:00 PM

With only 3 up days to speak of in the last two weeks, the early morning gains have become increasingly more difficult to give any credence to. The day saw pits start off up over a penny a piece but as the opening bell range, price fell off the shelf. Front month RBOB, under pressure as a lame duck product, fell .04 cents in a matter of minutes. As investors continue to point towards struggling economic picture as reasons for the retreats, the failure for HEAT to break the $1.95 support level tells another story. For the third time since Mid May, HEAT has touched the $1.95 area only to shoot to the $2.20 level in the following 30 day stretch. Not that past performance is any indication of future potential, but it sure does look convincing. (see chart below) As the day wore and the Dollar got stronger, it appeared that funds were content in some profit taking. At the Close, Crude fell .72 to $73.10, HEAT dropped .0156 to $1.9554 and front month RBOB lost .0441 to $1.8810 while OCT RBOB lost only .0285 to $1.8390.


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Topics: NYMEX, The Market, Daily Heating Chart, Dollar Strengthens

Telvent DTN Energy Summit

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Aug 9, 2010 9:54:00 AM

Telvent  2010 will be held in Omaha, Nebraska

Start: August 9, 2010

End: August 10, 2010

Venue: Old Market District

Address: 1001 Cass St., Omaha, NE, United States, 68102

Google Map

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Topics: Telvent DTN Energy Summit, Events

Inventory report keeps losses at bay

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jul 14, 2010 9:46:00 PM

Estimates had Crude falling 1.5mbl with the gasolines flat and distillates building by 1.0mbl. The early losses had pits down over 2 cents but as of 10:30 that changed with another massive draw in Crude stocks. For the second week in a row, Crude fell by 5mbls, Gasolines built by 1.6mbl and Distillates built by a whopping 2.9mbls. While the products set a bearish tone, the huge draw in Crude has some believing that we may be at the beginning of a run up due to increase demand and the recent round of positive earning numbers. Without the draw of Crude, we should have seen yesterdays increases get peeled off, thus the numbers kept the losses in check most of the day, even turning positive for some of the afternoon. As we have seen, the range of 1.90 to 2.10 on HEAT appears to remain intact. 1.90 levels still hold as buy in and sentiment looks to be cautiously bearish. With current freight indexes down slightly on a month to month basis, demand, from a street perspective is still marginal at best. At the end of the day, Crude actually fell 11 to $77.04, RBOB lost .0156 to $2.0665 and HEAT lost .0113 to $2.0361.

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Topics: The Market, Distillates Build, CRUDE falls

Bulls in driver seat after third up day of specultative buying

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jul 9, 2010 9:44:00 PM

With the short trading week coming to a close, and what is typically a slow week, was anything but. Inventories showed a large draw in Crude but slight builds in the products, but more importantly was the stock market breaking the 10,000 mark thus implying renewed economic hope. Renewed hope signals increase fuel demand which brings about higher prices. HEAT appears to be still locked in the 1.90 to 2.05 range, and even with the third session in a row of gains, most appear to be skeptical that these levels hold for any length of time. The jump of 14 cents over the last three days appears to be pushed most by speculative investors buying the levels seen last touched back in late May after that dramatic two week fall. (see chart below) Buy on the dips as the old saying goes, and speculative buying lead to speculative selling. At the close, Crude added .34 to $75.77, RBOB gained .0258 to $2.0511 and HEAT rose .0266 to $2.0053. Look for more volatility next week as many return from vacations to find a slightly overpriced market. As a side note, Dennis K Burke is pleased to announce the launch of our newly designed web site. Please visit us at !

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Topics: The Market, Crude draws, Speculative Buying

Storm fear fades, prompting sell off: Crude tumbles

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jun 29, 2010 9:40:00 PM

As quick as we saw the jump on Friday, we had thought that it was storm fear buying. And today brought vindication of those thoughts as I woke to a market down over 5 cents in both pits. As the opening bell rang, the buyers could not contain themselves prompting prices to claw back a few cents only to be weighed down by overriding fundamentals. The first named storm of the season is projected to miss most of the producing region in the Gulf and make landfall off US soil south of the tip of Texas. Product remains plentiful, even with expected draws in both Crude and gasolines this week while distillates are expected to show mild increases. As Wednesday’s expiry approaches, technical selling and booking profits for the quarter might push values down even further. At the close, Crude tumbled $2.31 to $75.94, RBOB lost .0656 to $2.0720 and JUL HEAT lost .0720 to $2.0213. The range appears to be widening some, but most are still unwilling to commit one way or the other.

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Topics: The Market, CRUDE falls, Expected Draws in Crude and Gas

Seesaw action ends with mixed day, blame Chinese currency fluctuation

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jun 20, 2010 9:35:00 PM

Late Sunday night I was surprised to see values up over 2 cents because after Friday’s movement I would have expected some sharp drops. That is until I saw China announced that their currency would be allowed to fluctuate against other currencies. This would/should weaken the dollar to Chinese investors thereby making Crude and its products more affordable. Thus Crude now becomes a safe haven against a falling dollar for other investors, pushing values higher. Additionally, all goods become cheaper to China spurring US manufacturing rates and another economic boom is on the horizon! That was 7pm last night, as of 3pm today, eh … not so much. Profit taking ensued pealing values all the way back to zero and RBOB actually finished negative on the day, down .0048 to $2.1428, HEAT stayed positive closing at +.0170 to $2.1459. CRUDE mustered up enough strength to close up .64 to $77.82. I wish I can say this is the last of the recent rally, but that can only be determined after a few mixed sessions like we saw today. With month end and quarter end quickly approaching, expect some more downside as the big guys looks to book profits.

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Topics: NYMEX, The Market, Chinese Currency, Dollar falls, Profit taking

NYMEX waivers ahead of Inventories

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jun 8, 2010 9:34:00 PM

We had anticipated some sideways action over the next few sessions as traders decide which bandwagon to jump on. Nothing was more evident than today that saw thin news have short, sharp impacts on the trade. After a moderately low start, both products were down over a penny, news of a Natural gas pipeline explosion boosted values until mid morning as FED chairman Bernanke spoke on how the economic recovery is ongoing, we probably wont “feel” it for sometime. As what has been the theme for going on several weeks, the uncertainty around the health of the economy will slosh around the trade until we have defining technical or fundamental reasons to move in either direction. Looking out further, with the Chinese government intentionally slowing their economy to curb massive inflation concerns, it may have longer consequences on the US. With estimates of inventories being mixed, don’t expect any clearer view of direction in Wednesday’s session. At the close, Crude added .55 to $71.99, RBOB fell .0058 to $1.9891 and HEAT managed to edge out a loss of .0030 to $1.9653.

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Topics: NYMEX, The Market, Bernanke, Chinese Currency, Natural Gas Pipeline Explosion

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