Energy Market Updates

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Fundamentals

ULSD Continues to Skyrocket on Short Squeeze

Unfortunately you are all reading your nightly pricing correctly.  As seen below, ULSD prices have risen almost a full $1 in the last four sessions. 

2022-04-28_12-40-27

As I mentioned earlier in the week, it is likely due to a short squeeze versus anything fundamentally related to the Oil Markets.  Although there are some pointing to distillate stocks being at their lowest level in 14 years as a driver, it appears that is being over played because demand for ULSD has fallen for the fifth week in a row. 

Front month MAY ULSD (which falls off the board Friday) is a full $1 higher than JUNE trading presently at $4.9950.  It is $1.50 higher than front moth NL @ $3.5250.  Its important to note the disconnect to Crude which is “only” at $103 and change.  For those of you that remember July of 2008, when Crude was at an all time high of $147, Diesel was trading just above $4.00.  All the more evidence to point towards a squeeze versus fundamental factors. 

The problem is, how long does this last?   Looking at the strip above, the backwardation is still healthy out through December, not as pronounced but still present. 

I would like to say that we are past this after Friday, but my feeling is the rocket ship-feather theory will hold true. 

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NYMEX Stays Range Bound with Strong Pull Back

Most pundits have been warning of upside breakout potential with this market for the last several sessions. When you really look at HO for the last four months, the defined range of 2.95 to 3.05 has held, with conviction. As much as I try to disprove the techies with fundamental basics, I am batting roughly .146 since October. That's a slump!

Although, we must point that todays selling seemed to be a reaction to China data reporting that runaway inflation is imminent. The news should have sent futures higher but those trying to avoid risk proceeded to sell off. Additionally, the Saudi Group has acknowledged lower production rates, signaling to the investors that demand may be waning in the weeks to come.

This weeks massive builds in products weighed heavy today in the minds of traders as many had to decide to be long or short with it almost 40 degrees in mid January. At the close, Crude fell .26 to $93.56, HO lost .0458 to $3.0085 and RBOB slipped .0538 to $2.7395

DAILY HEATING OIL CHART

Heat map

RBOB CLOSE
CLOSE CHANGE
 
FEB 27395 -.0538
MAR 27543 -.0483
APR 29165 -.0381
MAY 29072 -.0375
JUN 28771 -.0253
JUL 28422 -.0335
HEAT CLOSE
CLOSE CHANGE
FEB 30085 -.0458
MAR 30018 -.0438
APR 29901 -.0422
MAY 30210 -.0410
JUN 30050 -.0398
JUL 29969 -.0385
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