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Israel vs Iran Price Jumps Fail to Materialize

If you were one of the ones I spoke with Sunday evening after news of Irans strike on Israel, you knew I was all in that we were headed for new highs.  In what turned out to be a Nothingburger without any Mac Sauce, Israel and their allies basically played space invaders on Iranian drones and missiles.  US aircraft were said to have neutralized over 30% of the weapons alone.  It will be interesting to see how Irans street cred is affected going forward, as we sit now, the market is unwinding a healthy chunk of the threat premium that’s been added in recent months.  ULSD futures now sit below the much talked about support level of $2.60.    

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Navigating Stability Amidst Global Tensions & Winter Dynamics

The trend to lower lows every 15 days or so appears to have subsided.  Does this mean the market has found a comfort level for the next few weeks?  My sense is that most are still weighing the Global Demand vs Mid East Risk Premium battle that we mentioned last week.  Global tensions continue to be elevated as Houthis strikes have reached vessels in the Red Sea, Pakistan has now struck Iranian targets and the war of words between all nations ramps ups.  The strike first, speak later motto is what has most on edge.  With Inventories set to be released this morning, a day later due to the Holiday, a careful eye will be not just on stocks, but demand, specifically in the distillate sector.   While the middle of the Country saw a cold snap  last week, here in the Northeast we are starting to get towards more seasonable temperatures.  Again, stay the course with Diesel Winterization programs. 

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2020 Starts with Surging on Iran Strikes

Today, the market surged up to 4% on intraday highs as the Pentagon confirmed that US Airstrikes in Bahgdad killed Iran's top commander, Qasem Soleimani. Soleimani was considered to be responsible for the attacks by Iran on the US Embassy earlier this week, and the strikes have been framed as a retaliation for those attacks, as well as a preemptive action to prevent alleged further attacks in the works on US targets in the region.

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