Energy Market Updates

With much of the Industry expecting large draws in Crude and distillates due to year end and a relatively cold week across the nation, the surprise build in distillates put immediate pressure across the pits.  With the Trade looking for some short term direction, it came in the way of Inventories.  Crude fell 1.25mbl vs estimates of a draw of 2.85mbl (bearish) Gasolines fell 2.3mbl vs estimates of a build of 1.5mbl (bullish) and Distillates increase 245k barrels vs estimate of a draw of 625k barrels (bearish).  With Bears taking two out of three it was enough to sink the Heating oil pit far enough down  making comeback towards the end of the day almost impossible.  Interestingly enough,  RBOB did make a comeback, after trading down over 3 cents the Front month was able to finish the day marginal positive.  Gasoline gained support with the jump in demand figures as well as the drop in jobless claims last week.  It will be interesting to see how Friday will play out as the focus again shifts to the economy and how much of an impact the northeast storm had on the historically large shopping day of after Christmas returns and gift card redemptions.    At the close Crude fell below the $90 mark dropping $1.28 to $89.84, RBOB added .0014 to $2.3918 and HEAT slipped .0361 to $2.4854

Today’s NYMEX action could be characterized as being at a 4-way stop sign with every car staring at the other to see who is going to move first, and nobody moves.  What started out looking like a good down day after touching some yearly highs, and every news outlet letting us know, the market came back slightly and stayed relatively flat all day.  News was light today as the only market pushing piece was that December consumer confidence slipped slightly.  With Inventories set to report on Thursday due to the Holiday, expectations are again for draws in all products with support coming from colder weather across much of the nation and increase driving for the holiday.  Again, there is nothing earth shattering about this, just a simpletons answer.  The million dollar question remains do we move higher or lower from here.  Unfortunately most still have not forgotten December of 2007 when we were right around the same level before we skyrocketed $1.50 higher on HEAT to over $4.  At the close Crude fell .37 to $91.12, still above the psychological $90 line.   HEAT lost 28 points to $2.5215 and RBOB led the charge falling .0152 to $2.3904.  Remember Friday is a full trading day but expect little volume.

You know winter has arrived when it takes over 3 hours to travel 50 miles on the Mass Pike.  The cold snap and glancing blow of a Nor’easter to the New England area had buyers out today.  Looming out on the horizon is another round of Inventory stats that are expected to be a mirror image of the last two weeks, draws in Crude and small builds in products.  While it is tough to distinguish between Holiday exuberance or a real change in sentiment, many out there are pointing to signs of a better economic picture.  How that has changed in only two weeks, I have no idea.  With the large Hovensa refinery attempted to be restarted, this has also attributed to the higher close.  Crude settled at $89.82 up .45 (again just shy of the $90 mark that has held all year)  RBOB added .0207 to $2.3985 and HEAT added .0269 to $2.5164.  With a short week for most and the Inventory report tomorrow we should expect a volatile session or two ahead of us.

After yesterday’s downright balmy weather in the northeast, today brought us back to reality with temps in the low teens.  That cold air was a key factor in keeping HEAT pits positive today while gasoline values fell.  Front month HEAT gained .0027 to close at $2.4679 while RBOB lost .0220 to $2.2964.  Crude is still unwilling to move from its current range and settled at $88.28, down 33 cents.  The market continues to search for direction as Inventories are expected to show a draw in Crude supplies and builds in gasolines and distillates.  With gasoline demand reported to have fallen over 2% in the last week, but again those are credit card transactions which can be misleading, some sought to shed length.  On the flip side, Personal spending rose pointing to a better economic picture for some as hit the heart of the buying season for most Americans.  Based on the HEAT chart below, we are due for breakout in either direction, which way remains to be seen.  Interesting to note that it has been over two months since we saw this type of range bound trading.

It appears to be the Oilman’s triple play today with Cold air, no snow and a falling market.  All we can say is Finally!  Early morning gains were wiped away upon news of the US trade deficit lowering and turning the dollar higher.  After yesterdays jump from what appeared to be a refinery issue (Fundamentals weren’t dead, they were just napping)  todays losses were a welcome sign.  As OPEC is scheduled to meet this weekend, the group is not expected to make any rate changes but they almost always throw their two cents in on prices.   With Crude hovering around the $90 mark, well above what most accept as a “reasonable” priced barrel, we can expect that the cartel will confirm the market is fairly priced.  Chatter is still surfacing that $100 Crude will be the average over the next 12 months, largely based on the assumption that demand should increase.   Awful lot of assumptions being made to hold this market this high.  At the end of the day, CRUDE fell .58 to $87.79, RBOB lost .0312 to $2.3093 and HEAT slipped .0093 to $2.4575. The week was largely a see saw finishing up around the same spot where we started, breakouts usually follow.

You wouldn’t know it from looking simply at the closing figures that todays inventory report was initially viewed as wildly Bearish.  Confirming last nights API report with a draw of 3.8mbl in Crude, a build of 3.8mbl in gasolines and a build of 2.2mbl in distillates, pits tanked over 3 cents down around 10:30 this morning.  The losses were short lived however as others focused on demand numbers that showed some strength.  Additional reports of severe cold stretching from Northern Maine to South Florida fed the mid day rally that had HEAT pits dancing in  positive ground after lunch.  Again, on the surface, it appears the NYMEX wants to go lower, and the $90 resistance level of Crude appears to be holding.  But as to why we are not seeing the dramatic falls, like we saw the dramatic rises are beyond my explanation.   Even with the large draws in Crude, inventories are still well above last year and a lofty 25mbl over the three year average.  As I have said it appears Fundamental analysis is dead.  At the Close, Crude slipped .41 to $88.28, RBOB lost .0184 to $2.3046 and HEAT fell only .0095 to $2.4607, this after touching the $2.43 level earlier in the day.

While I was watching FED Chairman on 60 minutes last night it occurred to me very early in the interview: Bernanke was very, very nervous.  Something I have never seen before, even in the midst of the crisis.  Furthermore, comments made about how our Nation’s economy was still “struggling to sustain itself”  appeared to rattle overnight investors.  Early session buyers flooded the market.  Yet in typical fashion, HEAT pits were unable to cross the $2.50 level which has held as the yearly high.  Keeping some pressure on HEAT was also the regions first shot of cold and wintery weather.  Both Maine and Southern Connecticut got hit along with areas in Eastern NY.  You won’t find many in our industry cursing the weather as it has been long over due.  Still many are keeping watchful eyes on their thermostats and purse strings as the recent Jobs report solidified a somewhat HO-HUM near term picture that our economy is not out of the woods yet.  $3 retail gasoline is not helping anyone out to boot!  At the close, Crude edge slightly higher to $89.38 gaining .19, RBOB lost .0104 to $2.3417 and HEAT fell .0117 to $2.4757.

Speaking with an associate today we were amazed to both discover that last year at this time we over 40 cents less than now.  But that is ancient history.  Today continued yesterdays skyrocketing session that had pits touching year high levels yet again.  With Bulls jumping on reports of “Crude averaging $100 over the next year” and “home sales up 10%” it gives the much needed ammunition to buy the rumor and sell the fact.  Not that we are in the same scenario as last April, but remember HEAT touched 2.50 and then proceeded to fall to under $2, again, ancient history.  Fundamental factors appear to be creeping into the bullish sentiment.  Spot gasoline is said to be in short supply in the Northeast due to Venezuela refinery issues and distillates are being fueled by a brash of cold air heading into the Northeast.  Its hard to understand the weather issue as I still haven’t put a winter coat on.  At the close, Crude added $1.25 to $88 even.  RBOB soared another .0549 to $2.3553 and HEAT bolstered another .0490 to close at $2.4546.  Time to close our eyes and hope for a fall.

NYMEX futures reached their highest levels in almost two weeks.  On the heels of a pre Thanksgiving jump, players got right back at where they left off on Wednesday.  Pushing values higher were news of Ireland accepting bailout funds over the weekend and as well as preliminary estimates of better than expected Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales.  To which I estimate my wife’s contribution to be half!  Despite the Dollar gaining against the world basket, NYMEX values continued higher all day without any regard.  The mild correction seen over the last two weeks appears to be stalled as Crude failed to break $80 and HEAT never got below the 2.23 level.  The HEAT pit looks to be comfortable trading in the 2.25 to 2.45 range.  With the bounce tied to an improving economic picture, it will be interesting to see how the markets react to consumer confidence news scheduled to be out Tuesday.  At the close, Crude $1.97 to $85.73, RBOB skyrocketed .0743 to $2.2846 and HEAT jumped .0419 to $2.3581.

After Fridays close, we were cautiously optimistic that we might have some downside over the next few sessions. That theory was quickly thrown in the garbage can as news spread of the FMOC more than likely keeping interest rates at historically low rates. This appeared to cause a buying spree in all commodities and Crude was no exception. Current idea is that the state of the economy has investors worried, with the FED not moving rates, only solidifies their position. What is odd is that there is data out there that appears to support a more positive economic outlook. One of those is the DOT numbers that showed total miles traveled in July were up almost as full percent. But as we know, that fuzzy grey area between market perception and reality are often much farther apart than we understand. What we do know is that the pits appear to be comfortable within their current range with support still at the $1.95 level and resistance at the $2.25 area for HEAT. At the Close, Crude rose $1.20 to $74.86, RBOB gained .0304 to $1.9496 and HEAT vaulted .0402 to $2.1394.