Futures Turn on Stimulus Talk

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on May 15, 2013 5:29:00 PM

Much of what we view every day in this business is based primarily on expectations and ultimately, reality.  Today was precisely one of those days.  While most expected slightly bearish inventory numbers, the news at 10:30 that showed Gasoline's up 2.6mbl and Distillates up 2.3mbl well beat expectations of builds of 700k and 800k respectively.  Pits reacted by selling off over four cents in each HO and RBOB.  With Crude showing a draw of 600k barrels while many expected a build of the same amount, you had to think how long the fall would last.  At the same time, the European Zone released figures that showed its GDP fell for the sixth straight quarter.  Soon talk of more FED stimulus took over the trade and the buy back gained momentum.  From what started out as a solid down day, turned on the expectation of what we think might happen, thus pushing the NYMEX higher by the closing bell.  At the close, Crude gain .09 to $94.30, HEAT added .0071 to $2.8801 and RBOB led the charge jumping .0294 to $2.8670, almost .10 higher than the intraday low.... Looks like some expect a busy driving season.

 

RBOB Close
      Close            Change
JUN    2.8670       +.0294
JUL    2.8480       +.0276
AUG    2.8192       +.0260
SEP    2.7853       +.0247
OCT    2.6407       +.0190
NOV    2.6130       +.0166
HEAT Close
       Close            Change
JUN    2.8801       +.0071
JUL    2.8742       +.0080
AUG    2.8797       +.0095
SEP    2.8892       +.0107
OCT    2.8977       +.0111
NOV    2.9031       +.0107
Read More

Topics: European Economy, Futures, GDP, Distillates Build, Stimulus

Futures Plunge as Data shows Economy Soft

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Aug 18, 2011 9:37:00 PM

I feel like I have said this before, but what a difference a day makes!  With yesterday market making its own reality, today i would say it got kicked in the pants BY reality.   Futures started the session down hard and sold off heavily as a string of bearish data got reported.  First was the July Home sales report that showed sales fell by roughly 3.5%, second was the jobless report for last week which increased by 9000 new claims.  Generally not a good sign with an already weak economy.  Lastly, Morgan Stanley downgraded their outlook for the remainder of the year, and within the report noted that it was cutting GDP estimates by roughly .3%.  So what does all this mean?  "There is Gold in them there hills"...  Generally, news like this would push Commodities higher as equities would absorb the brunt of the sell off, but with values of Crude and products perceived to be overpriced, the selling carried over to the NYMEX.  Keep in mind what we mentioned a few weeks ago,  in order for things to start to improve, it has to start with cheaper fuel prices.  Where that level is, only time will tell.  At the close, Crude fell$5.20 to $82.38, RBOB lost .0871 to $2.7832 and HEAT shed .0868 to $2.8748

heat map

RBOB CLOSE
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
  
SEP    27832       -.0871
OCT    26652      -.0750
NOV    26299      -.0770
DEC   26131       -.0784
JAN    26146       -.0791
FEB    26256      -.0795
HEAT CLOSE
          CLOSE    CHANGE
SEP    28748    -.0868
OCT   28836     -.0870
NOV    28948      -.0864
DEC   29049     -.0859
JAN   29153       -.0857
FEB   29149       -.0854
Read More

Topics: Commodities, GDP, New Normal, Jobless numbers

Futures Dip as GDP Report Shows Flat Economy

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jul 29, 2011 5:12:00 PM

Last week we mentioned that it was going to be a sloppy back and forth week if a debt ceiling resolution was not passed.  As shown below, that was exactly what materialized.  Starting the week, HEAT was at 3.1280 and finished today at 3.0962 with all sorts of gyrations in between.  As traders are not willing to commit either way as a resolution  still looms and a tropical storm hitting the gulf region, it was somewhat surprising to see the market fall off as much as it did mid session.  Both products were down as much as 4 cents on the heals of GDP data being released which showed the economy was basically flat.  Furthermore, it notes that the recession  was deeper than first thought and the economy is obviously growing at a much slower rate.  There is growing sentiment that we will begin to encounter demand destruction at a growing rate if prices do not ease relatively quickly. At the close Crude fell $1.74 to $95.70, RBOB lost .0047 to $3.1129 and HEAT fell .0090 to $3.0962. This weekend will be critical as to how the Markets will shake out for the next few months, as a resolution should see lower prices

heat chart

RBOB CLOSE
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
  
AUG    31129       -.0047
SEP    30579      -.0059
OCT    29211     -.0129
NOV   28852       -.0148
DEC    28691       -.0152
JAN    28708      -.0153
HEAT CLOSE
          CLOSE    CHANGE
AUG  30962     -.0090
SEP   30994       -.0150
OCT    31130      -.0156
NOV   31282      -.0169
DEC   31429       -.0176
JAN   31570       -.0183
Read More

Topics: GDP, Debt Ceiling Resolution, RBOB tumbles, CRUDE falls

Recent Posts

Posts by Topic

see all