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2015 is off to a wild start, with Crude dancing around and then dropping below $50/bbl. Wednesday (the 7th) Crude closed out at $48.65, yet another 5 year record. Gasoline and distillates have closed down every day this week, so it looks like the 2014 slide has no intention of stopping.
After the mulityear lows hit last week, oil started to rally today.
A doubly "Black Friday" this year as OPECs decision resulted in a commodities free fall. The second part is that it was hoped that the relief consumers have been getting at the pump since the summer would have helped boost retail sales for the season. As the numbers are coming in though, it's not looking good.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced this morning it was downgrading its outlook for Global growth in the wake of disappointing growth in the Euro Zone and Japan. This is the third time this year the IMF has revised its outlook down (this time to 3.3% from 3.8%) and out of the last twelve forecasts in the past 3 years, they've revised 9 of the estimates down. According to Fox News, the IMF consistently has based projections off of an assumption that wealthier nations would be able to reverse their high debt, high unemployment environments a lot faster than they have been.
The IMF's gloomy outlook on the Euro Zone and bleak projections for growth potential in emerging markets has been another force behind the rally of the US dollar, as the US economy has started to stabilize versus other major nations, especially France and Germany. Germany hit a record 5 year low on industrial production, not good considering they are one of the critical economic players in the zone.
Natural gas hit $5/mmBTU on the NYMEX for the first time in over 3 years last week, over concern about supply and a increase in demand due to to continuing frigid temperatures throughout the country. As of Jan 30, prices have backed off some but the underlying supply issues behind the spike may still play a relevant role in Nat Gas volatility going forward.
NYMEX values appeared to find support just above the 2.90 level on front month HO after a long cold stretch. The Polar Vortex that gripped a large portion of the Country, and plagued us in the Northeast with long terminal lines, appears to be subsiding. Many of us are getting a well deserved breather as we return to somewhat normalcy.
Bears were out in full force today (actually saw them hit after the close on Monday) as all eyes were watching election results in Italy. No clear cut winner has been announced thus casting doubt and uncertainty on recently passed austerity measures. The effect saw the US Dollar rise against the World basket forcing Commodities to fall harder than Tom Brady's Agents Commission check. Adding to the sell off was increasingly better news from the housing market with December values showing a .2% increase and 6.8% increase year on year. All this and as I walked into a lunch saw Fed Chief Bernanke on a big screen TV saying the economy is far better off than in recent years and that the FED is currently looking at ways to end its quantitative easing policies. Today had a flurry of news to push pricing down, but I still hang my hat on the saying "high prices is the cure for high prices" as we exit the heating season in the Northeast and some retail stations above $4.00 a gallon, some would say the US economy would struggle to support these energy costs. At the close, Crude lost .48 to $92.63, HEAT fell .0672 to $3.0317 and RBOB tumbled .0795 to $2.9816.
What a difference a week makes! Last Monday we were gearing up for a strong week ahead of QE3. Today saw the entire weeks gains in the Heating Oil pit get erased, finishing slightly below last Mondays close down .0761 to $3.1634. That is after the pit pulled back some even more robust losses that at about 1:30 had HO down .12 and RBOB down just over .11 cents. We said the 3.25 level on prompt month HO was a pretty strong resistance area and today's OCT HO high just happened to be 3.2500. Technical- schmechnical, it appears as though rumors abound that there was an SPR release of gallons happening. To which is still do not fully understand, if the Government has to maintain required levels in the SPR, are they not just selling high and replacing at a lower price later? To be clear on QE3, of which the Fed is buying back some $4 billion in mortgage backed securities, this had and still has the potential to be bullish for commodities should the dollar fall. But lets live for today and be happy the market fell today. Crude finished down $2.38 to $96.62 and RBOB lost .0723 to 2.9433.
For the second day in a row, early session losses were erased with strong closes. Todays bullish action came on the heals of a surprise increase in jobless claims and some cautiously upbeat comments the Federal Reserve. Commenting on the role of the Fed, Bernanke said ultra low rates would remain in effect through 2014 and did not rule out additional measures to pump up the economic situation. Commodities are the collateral damage of such news as the dollar again took a hit and caused the pits to show strong gains as the day wore on. Crude settled at $104.55 up .43, RBOB added .0276 to close at $3.1833 and HO took the lead gaining .0333 to $3.1944. Heat has come back with vengeance after touching 3.09 on the prompt month just over a week ago. There is fair amount of commentary out there that we should see substantially lower numbers in the coming sessions. Support for HO looks to be at the 3.15, then a 3.05 level.