Energy Market Updates

After a brief cease fire between the US and Iran early this week, hostilities resumed pushing oil markets to fresh highs. Finished diesel and gasoline are now close to levels we saw in early March when the war started. What is interesting to point out, at these levels, one would think crude oil to be $125-$135 per barrel, but that’s not the case, it’s $85. A factor of US sourced product, making the ULSD crack spread (value of a gallon of crude compared to the value of a gallon of diesel) at over $90 per barrel, compared to roughly $55 to make gasoline. That will and has pushed refiners to produce more distillates recently, which are starting to show in weekly inventory numbers. How that tames finished pricing down the road still remains to be seen. Theory being, more inventory, lower demand, lower pricing. The caveat may be the steep backwardation from one month to the next preventing some from carrying inventory. While it may feel like your swimming on Cape Cod with a pack of seals, (love shark week) knowing your supplier is in your corner can be the lifejacket you need.

 As military action dominates headlines the last week, diesel futures have soared roughly $.80 to new highs even as demand figures for the product are down roughly 7%...

 It was just 10 days ago we were feeling pretty good to seeing sub $3 diesel pricing. This morning I feel like Kevin Bacon’s character in the final scene of Animal House...

 As the ebb and flow of ship traffic in the Middle East returns to pre conflict levels, traders have cut roughly half the increase in futures pricing. Shipping rates...

 Deal signed, now what. Actually it’s a “memorandum of understanding”. Can you imagine the password on that Docusign email! A lot still has to fall into place before we...

 In a world of post first, verify later, it has become increasingly more difficult to put any sort of rational into market movements. One would expect today to see...

 Well, that escalated quickly. On Friday afternoon tweets of lifting a blockade and free flowing ships had futures continuing their downward spiral. But a few hours...

 After 25 years, it finally happened. I made the switch to an iPhone. So I apologize if I hung up on you, called you randomly, or sent an uncomprehensible text. I think...

 Once again the market is reacting to the sound bites given on the Iranian ordeal. Late Tuesday night we “were close to a deal”, causing a massive sell off in futures...

 Last week we were optimistic that markets would turn south with news that Iran and the US would be meeting over the weekend to hammer out a resolution. That all turned Saturday morning with a tweet that the meeting was off. The past week has shown little in way of the conflict ending anytime soon. A senior meeting at the White House indicated that we could be in for “months” long standoff, and the President stating that he would like the Russian-Ukraine conflict to end at the same time.