NYMEX Futures End Positive for Fifth Straight Session

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Aug 15, 2013 4:23:00 PM

All news today was nothing but feed for the Bulls that have been in control of the pits over the last week.  After HO dipped below 2.95 late last week, buying has come back with force.  Today was strong out of the gate and while RBOB was tamed slightly, HO kept right on rolling.  NOAA models now show Tropical Storm Erin churning in the mid Atlantic with an expected path set on Puerto Rico for sometime late next week.  First storm of the season always brings the buyers out.  Data on the economic front showed the US had the lowest unemployment claims in just over six years.  While this is good for the economy, not so good for Future pricing.  Along side that, most now expect the FED to significantly slow down their Bond buying program over the next sixty days as the economy shows signs of improvement.  Finally, the continued and recently heightened unrest in Egypt, has many concerned over the regions safety.  Egypt largely controls the Suez canal which is a vital shipping lane for Crude barges, anything that can remotely affect Crude shipments will push futures higher.  Still optimism remains as RBOB shrugged off the news and was only able to muster a 15 point gain to close at $2.9845, while HO jumped another .0250 to $3.0728 ( the high end of the wide range  we have been in) .  Crude added .48 to $107.33.  I stay optimistic for lower prices coming as the semi mixed close is always a key point to momentum swings.

 Daily Heat Chart
Daily heat chart
RBOB Close
                      CLOSE     CHANGE            
SEP   2.9845         +.0015
OCT  2.8562        +.0068
NOV   2.8118        +.0101
DEC    2.7813      +.0116
JAN     2.7646     + .0117
                  FEB    2.7599     +.0119               
  
HEAT Close
      CLOSE            CHANGE
SEP  3.0728        +.0250
OCT  3.0795      +.0255
 NOV  3.0823      +.0250   
DEC  3.0808     +.0246
JAN   3.0791    +.0240
FEB  3.0692     +.0243

 

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Topics: Eygpt, Tropical Storm, CRUDE, FED rates

FOMC Stance pushes Commodities Higher

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jan 26, 2012 4:27:00 PM

Late yesterday we saw the overnight pits shoot higher once news surfaced that the FED was of the position to keep fund rate very low through the foreseeable future.  Citing continued slow economic growth, a European debt crisis, (that I recently read to be compare to "a pimple on a teenage boy") and a persistent unemployment rate that is still around 8.5%, the FED is still considering another round of quantitative easing later this winter.  Commodities have responded positively as the greenback fell to a six week low early this morning.  Still positive signs of an improving economy are are out there as durable good orders for December showed a 3% increase which unfortunately has a bullish effective on Futures.  The range for Heat has not broke and we continue to see sideways action as shown in the chart below.  At the end of the day, Crude added .30 to $99.70, RBOB gained .0128 to $2.8466 and HEAT jumped .0343 to $3.0535.

heat chart

RBOB CLOSE
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
  
FEB    28466       +.0128
MAR   28508      +.0134
APR    29794      +.0165
MAY   29664       +.0173
JUN   29368       +.0167
JUL    29008       +.0167
HEAT CLOSE
          CLOSE    CHANGE
FEB     30535     +.0343
MAR    30446      +.0342
APR     30244      +.0318
MAY   30043      +.0288
JUN    29911     +.0268
JUL     29899      +.0246
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Topics: Commodities, European Economy, FED holds interest rates, FED rates

Futures continue to rise, buying spree after pause

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Sep 20, 2010 9:51:00 PM

After Fridays close, we were cautiously optimistic that we might have some downside over the next few sessions. That theory was quickly thrown in the garbage can as news spread of the FMOC more than likely keeping interest rates at historically low rates. This appeared to cause a buying spree in all commodities and Crude was no exception. Current idea is that the state of the economy has investors worried, with the FED not moving rates, only solidifies their position. What is odd is that there is data out there that appears to support a more positive economic outlook. One of those is the DOT numbers that showed total miles traveled in July were up almost as full percent. But as we know, that fuzzy grey area between market perception and reality are often much farther apart than we understand. What we do know is that the pits appear to be comfortable within their current range with support still at the $1.95 level and resistance at the $2.25 area for HEAT. At the Close, Crude rose $1.20 to $74.86, RBOB gained .0304 to $1.9496 and HEAT vaulted .0402 to $2.1394.

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Topics: HEAT, The Market, NYMEX, FED rates, DOT numbers

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