Positive Sales and Demand Data boosts RBOB

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jun 14, 2011 5:05:00 PM

Early morning trading pushed all pits higher as news spread of Chinese Crude imports jumping 6%.  With a Market desperately looking for direction, the slightest potential shift in sentiment can have large scale implications.  As the morning moved on, and gasoline demand numbers were reported as an increase of 1.1% over last week, the buyers took early control and never looked back.  Very similar to what happens when you score 4 goals and 6 minutes, a la Bruin nation, it makes for an early day.  The empty netter was a retail sales figure that showed the losses were better than expected only showing a .2% decrease while a .3% decrease was anticipated.  Remember, it is all about expectations.  So it will be interesting to see how Wednesday plays out as most expect for builds across the board with the DOE numbers.  While we are still some 22 cents off the high seen back in early April, we are only 27 cents off the low in early May.  Again this range of 2.85 to 3.35 on Heat while vast appears to be the new normal.  A very hard close pushed values higher with about 10 minutes left in the session.  HEAT was teetering on even ground only to end up .02 to $3.1258, RBOB soared .0678 to $3.0646 and Crude added $2.07 to $99.37, still under the mythical line in the sand of $100 a barrel.

heat chart
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
JUL     30646       +.0678
AUG    30250      +.0461
SEP    30069     +.0399
OCT    28897       +.0341
NOV     28676       +.0314
DEC    28554      +.0301
          CLOSE    CHANGE
JUL    31258       +.0200
AUG    31391      +.0189
SEP    31563     +.0187
OCT   31734      +.0180
NOV   31914       +.0181
DEC   32069       +.0182
Read More

Topics: Chinese Crude Builds, RBOB

Futures Continue to Rebound on Two Week Rally

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jun 9, 2011 9:04:00 AM

If you were to ask me two weeks ago if I thought the HEAT pit would rebound 30 cents after falling 45, I would say its about as likely as a tornado in Massachusetts....  And so here we are!   With what has been an almost two week rally, todays moves looked to be a reaction to the indecisiveness of OPEC.  For that last few years, OPEC has lost much of their mojo and most discounted their pumping policies and mandates as rhetoric.  As with any slow news day, people needed something to jump onto and the report that OPEC was doing nothing had bulls run the table.  That coupled with the DOE report of Crude having a 4.8mbl draw simple let the gates open for a decisively higher session.  Jobless claims increase slightly last week still signaling a troubled economy.  Even the Natgas report that showed an unexpected injection of 80bcf could not derail the upside.  While many see the last several sessions as technical buy backs, it is difficult to maintain the notion that better days are to come as we pop 3 or 4 cents higher everyday.  At the close, Crude maintained above $100 and settled up $1.19 to $101.93, HEAT rose .0441 to $3.1378 and RBOB jumped .0611 to $3.0398.

heat chart

                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
JUL     30398       +.0611
AUG    30217      +.0563
SEP    30079      +.0527
OCT    28922       +.0445
NOV     28701       +.0423
DEC    28887      +.0405
          CLOSE    CHANGE
JUL    31578       +.0441
AUG    31508      +.0427
SEP    31677     +.0412
OCT   31843      +.0400
NOV   32015       +.0401
DEC   32167       +.0397
Read More

Topics: Jobless numbers, OPEC

Dennis K Burke at NEFI Boston June 7th & 8th

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jun 6, 2011 10:26:00 AM

Dennis K Burke is excited to be an exhibitor at this years NEFI Expo and Energy Summit June 7th and 8th at Boston’s Hynes Convention Center.

The convention will feature exhibitors as well as information sessions on everything energy from Bioheat to securing credit lines to hedging. Of particular interest, there will be a keynote speak by Dave Nazzaro on Bioheat including RFS2 information and market changes. Also, there will be a feature on ULSD and corrosion issues.

For more information on the NEFI expo and how to register, visit the following link:  http://www.nefiexpo.com/

We hope to see you there! Visit us at booth 415

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Topics: NEFI Boston

Markets Jump Higher After Long Weekend

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on May 31, 2011 5:32:00 PM

What a difference a week makes!  less than a week ago were were talking about HEAT testing some key support levels, but after today, those might be to far to see in the rear view mirror.  The pits have jumped some 20 cents in the last five sessions.  While yesterdays electronic trading seemed to bear some positive tones as most of the session was down almost 2 cents, waking up this morning saw the market up over 4 and Crude up over a dollar.  The second round of bailout money for Greece appears to be in the works as Germany is conceding. Over the weekend, a NATO commander stated his forces were making significant strides against the Gaddafi regime and guaranteed his removal in the next few months.  On the homefront, a pipeline leak in the Kansas City area that originates in Canada forced that line down for the second time in a week.  The key detail in that report is that the pipeline ends up in Cushing, Oklahoma, a key yardstick for National Inventory numbers.  The fear pushed values higher and stayed there the remainder of the day with Crude now healthily over $100 to close up $2.11 to $102.70, front month RBOB added .0584 to $3.1504, while JUL RBOB was up only .0190.  HEAT finished higher by .0658 to $3.0563, JUL HEAT added .0516 to $3.0530.   HEAT is currently at the top end of the recent range of 2.80 to 3.05,  one would expect to see some profit taking over the next couple of days.

heat chart

                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
JUN    31504       +.0584
JUL    30503      +.0190
AUG    30186        +.0221
SEP    29903       +.0253
OCT     28612       +.0278
NOV    28311      +.0275
          CLOSE    CHANGE
JUN    30563       +.0658
JUL    30530      +.0516
AUG    30664      +.0511
SEP     30832      +.0506
OCT    30989       +.0503
NOV   31146       +.0500
Read More

Topics: Kansas City Pipeline, Greece Bailout, Ghaddafi

Rapture dissapoints, Commodities Tumble

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on May 23, 2011 3:39:00 PM

Not that one has to do anything with the other, but I wonder how the market would have reacted?    Even with another volcanic eruption in Iceland (coincidentally at 6:03 EST on Saturday), the markets still opened down heavily as debt concerns loom as late Friday Greece was downgraded to junk status.  Recall the last eruption sent the European airlines, and industry as a whole into a tizzy.  But with the dollar strengthening today, oil was on the opposite side of the see saw and saw another round of healthy drops.  Disappointing manufacturing numbers also weighed in pushing both pits down well over five cents.  Somehow RBOB was able to make a move and ended up finishing positive on the day.  Which is bizarre in and of itself as a report showed that Americans drove 1.4% less than the did a year ago in March.  Some blame could be towards higher fuel prices.  You have heard me say time and again that mixed days always bring a eye of suspicion.   Although today appears to be some adjusting ahead of the long weekend as outer month RBOB was down much stronger.  At the close, Crude fell $2.40 to $97.70, RBOB rose .0023 to $2.9381 and HO tumbled .0712 to $2.8471.  The key support level for Heat appears to be firmly placed at the $2.80 market, a close below that should initiate additional downside in the coming weeks.

Daily Heat Chart
heat chart
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
JUN    29381       +.0023
JUL    29059      -.0144
AUG    28739        -.0275
SEP    28451       -.0355
OCT     27111       -.0422
NOV    26834      -.0456
          CLOSE    CHANGE
JUN    28471      -.0712
JUL    28597      -.0723
AUG    28749      -.0712
SEP     28930      -.0707
OCT    29102       -.0700
NOV   29274       -.0689
Read More

Topics: Greece downgraded, Rapture, Dollar Strengthens

Markets tumble as Dollar rises and Rivers ease

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on May 16, 2011 5:22:00 PM

Early news today had European markets standing on their head as the investors try to sort out the mess with IMF chair being arrested and how that would play into the restructuring of many foreign nations debt.  The greenback was substantially stronger this morning thus pushing commodities down.    With the pending rape charges against Dominique Strauss- Kahn, most believe this would delay or prevent the International Monetary Fund from helping countries like Greece in restructuring their massive debt.  On our own soil, the Obama Administration announced that it would extend and "ramp up" domestic production in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska which had some significant psychological effects on trading.  As the day went on, and some disappointing manufacturing numbers were released, the dollar softened and we actually looked to be heading towards the positive side around lunchtime. Ahead of the bell, markets continued to falter as flood fears began to subside with the Army Corps of Engineers opening spillways to divert waters from reaching major refinery points in the Louisiana area.  At the close, Crude lost $2.49 to $97.17, HEAT shed .0678 to $2.8744 and RBOB tumbled .1433 to $2.9311.  Look for continued length to be shed with bounces in between as the current downward trend remains your friend.

heat chart


                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
JUN    29311       -.1433
JUL    29017       -.1146
AUG    28779        -.0969
SEP    28570       -.0847
OCT     27267       -.0723
NOV    27002      -.0668
          CLOSE    CHANGE
JUN    28744      -.0678
JUL    28886      -.0649
AUG    29030      -.0620
SEP     29197      -.0603
OCT    29360       -.0593
NOV   29524       -.0584
Read More

Topics: Spillways, IMF leader arrested, Dollar Strengthens

Futures plunge on dollar, data and demand

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on May 11, 2011 10:08:00 AM

LADIES AND GENTLEMAN, PLEAS KEEP YOUR HANDS AND FEET INSIDE THE ROLLER COASTER AT ALL TIMES!  What else can you say about the last several sessions that has seen 25 cent drops, 30 cent rises and another 25 cent drop.  Overnight saw big drops on gas as what appeared to be an overbought speculative position put on Monday and Tuesday get sawed off as fears resurfaced that the European Union might not be willing just yet to jump in and help Greece. The subsequent reaction was a large jump in the Dollar, pushing commodities to the floor.  So much for those tight supplies due to flooding?  Bearish inventory data pushed the NYMEX down even further as Crude gained 3.8mbl, distillates fell by 800k and gasolines rose 1.3mbl as most were expecting moderate draws.  For the first time since Rita and Katrina days, the Trade was halted as RBOB losses pushed over 25 cents.  At the close, Crude tumbled $5.67 to $98.21, HEAT lost .1029 to $2.8983 and RBOB  lost and astounding .2569 to $3.1228.   At the end of the day, most were looking at demand figures that showed drops across all products, furthering the notion that Americans are either unwilling or unable to support retail fuel over $4 per gallon.   

heat chart
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
JUN    31228       -.2569
JUL    30417       -.2121
AUG    29778        -.1800
SEP    29331       -.1567
OCT     27755       -.1373
NOV    27405      -.1330
          CLOSE    CHANGE
JUN    28983      -.1029
JUL    29123      -.1022
AUG    29262      -.1018
SEP     29426      -.1011
OCT    29587       -.1003
NOV   29740       -.1006
Read More

Topics: Greece Bailout, RBOB tumbles

NYMEX puts on rally hats to end day positive

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on May 10, 2011 5:04:00 PM

We truly have moved to a market that is tick to tick.  We all recall the days when a .01 move in the market called for a meeting.  Today, right out of the gate RBOB was up .08 while HEAT limped along slower than Shaq last night and was negative most of the morning.  Early in the session for about 20 minutes, both pits tumbled with HEAT negative almost 4 cents.  Gasoline futures are spiking on concerns of Midwest flooding preventing shipments moving from key areas.  But with overall gasoline demand slipping last week and demand destruction appears to be settling in as retail pump prices hover around the $4 mark, todays jump seems somewhat nonsensical.  Imagine the gray hairs the station owners and gasoline end users have sprouted the last few sessions, from falling 20 cents one day to being up over 25 cents in the last two days!  With Wednesday comes another round of inventory numbers that are expected to show Crude levels build by 1mbls and products to show slight increases.  On another note, one which might have tempered todays gains, the NYMEX raised margin requirements making it more expensive for people to purchase futures, ultimately will have minimal effect on the course of business.  At the close, Crude added $1.33 to $103.88, HEAT found strength towards the close and gained .0394 to $3.0012 and RBOB led the charge jumping .1013 to $3.3797.

heat chart

                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
JUN    33797       +.1013
JUL    32538       +.0894
AUG    31578        +.0776
SEP    30898       +.0662
OCT     29128       +.0610
NOV    28735      +.0605
          CLOSE    CHANGE
JUN    30012      +.0394
JUL    30145      +.0406
AUG    30280      +.0408
SEP     30437      +.0406
OCT    30590       +.0405
NOV   30746       +.0409
Read More

Topics: Inventory report, Midwest Flooding, Gasoline demand drop

Futures Tumble as length is shed with Jobs Data

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on May 5, 2011 3:28:00 PM

As the saying goes " we buy in fear and sell in greed", today appears to be the perfect example of that old one.  Coming off the first three day sell off in over six months, the NYMEX was poised for a correction.  A new term put to the days action in the pits, a "flash crash" .  With all three major pits teetering on key support levels at the open, the technical sell off ensued as new unemployment figures were released that showed claims up by roughly 43k more than most estimates.  That, coupled with yesterdays slightly bearish inventory numbers, many sought to exit positions put on several weeks ago.  Again, it appears that we did find the event that would cause a correction, the key now is how much length is left and where will Bulls find a buying opportunity.  The last point to be made for a continued sell off will be to determine how demand will stand up with retail gasoline breaking $4.00 a gallon across most of the country.  From all indications, or today at least, demand destruction is weighing heavily on the minds of investors.  At the Close, Crude tumbled $9.40 to settle below $100 for the first time in weeks at $99.80.  RBOB lost a staggering .2271 to close at $3.0954 and HEAT led the charge with a whopping loss of .2561 to $2.8869. 

Daily Heating Oil Chart
heat chart
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
JUN    30954       -.2271
JUL    30228       -.2352
AUG    29686        -.2391
SEP    29256       -.2403
OCT     27624       -.2410
NOV    27244      -.2409
          CLOSE    CHANGE
JUN    28869      -.2561
JUL    29020      -.2561
AUG    29169      -.2564
SEP     29345      -.2562
OCT    29513       -.2558
NOV   29676       -.2557


The information contained in this report has been taken from trade and statistical services and sources believed to be reliable. Dennis K. Burke, Inc. makes no representations or warranties with respect to the content of such news, including, without limitation, its accuracy and completeness. This bulletin is provided for informational purposes only, and is not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell commodities.
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Topics: Jobless claims rise, CRUDE falls, Flash Crash

Markets plummet early on hit of HVT #1

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on May 2, 2011 3:41:00 PM

On a day that for most of us was 10 years in the making, the sight of pits being down almost 9 cents  early this morning was almost surreal.  Over the last few months we have talked about "risk" or "violence" premiums built into the market, but today it was all about the "fear" premium that was erased overnight.  However, the Market being what it is, found a way to battle back and even trade higher for much of the session.  Finally finishing lower on the day with Crude falling .41 to $113.52, HEAT losing .0237 to $3.2521 and RBOB lading the charge falling .0505 to $3.3479.  As many talked how the removal of Bin Laden from the scene was a major win and will have impacts in the future of the markets, others began to chat up the power vacuum that may occur inside Al-Quida.  Most Political figures stressed the importance of remaining vigilant in the fight on terror.  Some cities even issued new warnings. All of us can remember life and markets pre 9/11 and in this "New Normal" market, we have always said that there needs to be an event or catalyst to change sentiment and direction.  This is the biggest one we could have had. 

heat chart
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
JUN    33479       -.0505
JUL    33062       -.0432
AUG    32679        -.0383
SEP    32340       -.0322
OCT     30792       -.0262
NOV    30426        -.0239
          CLOSE    CHANGE
JUN    32521       -.0237
JUL    32669      -.0246
AUG    32817      -.0257
SEP   32977       -.0259
OCT    33124       -.0259
NOV   33263        -.0262
Read More

Topics: New Normal, Osama Bin Laden killed

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