Rising Fuel Costs Amid Global Unrest & Policy Changes

In a whirlwind of news over the past few days, diesel and gasoline prices have risen by over $0.10 each. Over the weekend, the Assad regime in Syria fell after decades of factional fighting. This development is significant, as Syria was Iran's largest ally, and its collapse could exacerbate the already volatile conflicts in the region.
Meanwhile, China is reportedly loosening its monetary policy for the first time in over a decade, a move expected to boost crude oil demand. On the economic front, core inflation (excluding food and fuel) has risen to 3.3%, signaling that the Federal Reserve may hold off on a rate cut this month. These factors contributed to the market rally over the past three days.
However, there are bearish indicators for pricing in the weeks ahead. Distillate inventories are 6.9% higher than last year, while demand remains flat. A "warmer-than-normal" winter is predicted across the U.S. and Europe, which may further suppress demand. Additionally, ongoing tariff discussions and the absence of renewed key industry tax credits could cause physical or cash product pricing to diverge from futures pricing.
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