Energy Market Updates

A week ago we mentioned that we might reset to a new low if the three key drivers fell in line. They did just that, for the most part. OPEC+ rolled production status,...

As it has been said, “It’s the same old story, same old song and dance” specifically to the Oil complex. The trident of fundamental influences on the market over the...

I talk a lot about the short term happenings, inventories, missile strikes, etc.  The real key is to look at the long term, minimally the mid-range.  While diesel demand kicked up a whopping 10% last week, the four week average is still down by 3.8%.  Similar with gasoline demand that showed strength last week, but is still down about 1% on a four week average.  As core inflation finally ticked down 2 basis points this week, what are the long term effects, should that trend continue?  The FED should start to cut interest rates, slowly over time.  Lower borrowing costs typically stimulate an economy, thus pushing up demand for fuels, and higher prices.  We are about $.15 higher on diesel pricing than we were last year at this time, and spent much of the early summer in a tight range, we may have some downside left as war premiums are shed.

There are a plethora of factors that move futures markets. Technical factors such as support levels, moving averages, strength indicators. Fundamental factors such as...

With June future screen taking over, we have clearly reset the range over the last week. Recall, we noted that many were anticipating ULSD futures to reset back to the...

Special Friday edition! Last week we said fuels were at a pivotal stage and could see some downside. Well, like the Weatherman, it was 50-50 shot. In diesels, we are...

Today will prove to be a pivotal day as Diesel futures sit on the support line of $2.60. While we have shed nearly $.20 in the last two weeks, we still need to settle...

After testing the limits of the top half of the range on Monday, ULSD cooled off the last three days by about $.10 to fall into the comfort zone of the mid $2.60’s. The...

Sideways is the best way to describe the 20 days in the fuel market. Diesel pricing has been stuck in a $.10 range, unable to break below the $2.60 support level....

A massive increase in demand for gas and diesel stalled the downward correction we have been seeing as of late.  Adding to that, both finished products inventories fell last week, diesel futures took the lead and jumped up more than $.05 yesterday.  While we seem to be set for an early spring and hopefully a more robust construction season, the 15% increase in distillate demand has many scratching their heads.  Even with the latest increase, the 4 week average for demand on distillates is still relatively flat.  Gasoline average demand is still down about 3%, even after last weeks 6.4% increase.  Buoying pricing was also the first reported fatalities onboard a Commercial Vessel from Houti attacks in the Red Sea area.  A major global shipping lane, this latest attack will likely all but halt most vessels from entering the area.  The FED is in a holding pattern on rates, but have hinted that they will make “appropriate” adjustments in the coming months as inflation appears to be stalling, how that influences fuel pricing remains to be seen.  I would expect pricing to continue this sideways action and be somewhat range bound for the next week or so.