Kelly Burke

Recent Posts

Libya, Labor Participation, & GDP Woes Keep NYMEX Positive Despite Projected Inventory Builds

Posted by Kelly Burke on May 20, 2014 2:26:19 PM

Line charts depicting the stock market scattered on a table

Analysts expect that the EIA report due out tommorow will show US Crude stocks hitting a new record high. So why isn't the market coming down?

For one, levels at Cushing (the NYMEX physical delivery point) have hit multiyear lows since the pipeline to the Gulf came online in January, which has an impact seperate from overall crude levels. WSJ cites some analysts who think Cushing could hit minimum operational levels, and thats keeping some skepticism in the market and supporting the price.

Secondly, international concerns are always a factor, and Europe is dealing with more than a few energy related headaches this week. Brent Crude is hanging in there at over $109, which is largely being blamed on the ongoing issues with Libya. Libyan production has been capped well below 2013 levels, and major oilfields remain closed down despite government promises they would be up and running by now.  Perhaps more of a dire sign for the area though -  France's major oil player in Libya, Total, has cut presence in the country down severely, and Algeria's Sonatrach has evacuuated their employees - both companies did so on security and safety concerns. Not good news for hopes that war torn Libya would be stepping back in as a major supply player anytime soon. 

Russia and Ukraine are still essentially in a standoff as well, with the usual reports of progress being made but none seeming to really materialize. 

On another note, Domestically, like we talked about before, the economic recovery picture is not looking particularly sunny. There is a lot of heated discussion about the "real" jobless numbers and the labor participation rate. At the start of the summer job season, the amount of people under 25 in the work force dropped almost half a million, and the unemployment rate for 16-19 year olds hit the second lowest number ever.  Additionally, the GDP is moving at a crawl, the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated GDP grew 0.1% for Q1 of 2014 - not a great number in and of itself, but especially painful given that projections put it at a full 1%. Not very confidence inspiring, which tends to lend itself to higher commodities pricing (just ask a gold nut). 

 

 

Read More

Topics: Brent Crude, Libya, CRUDE, russia, EIA Inventories

Commodities and Stocks See-Saw on Sanctions, EIA Numbers, Unemployment, and Tech Dissapointments

Posted by Kelly Burke on May 9, 2014 1:18:03 PM


Line charts depicting the stock market scattered on a table

Wednesday's EIA report showed that the API projected Crude drops come to fruition, falling 1.78 million barrels. As we all saw this pushed up Crude & ULSD prices on the day, with ULSD closing up .0398 to 2.9275, and Crude up to 100.81, once again hanging by the new (unfortunately) benchmark of $100 we've all been hoping to drop from for quite some time now. 

Brent ticked upwards this week as well on EU discussion of stricter sanctions on Russia. Putin had announced earlier this week that Russian troops had withdrawn from the border, but no such withdrawal happened according to everyone else in the area, so more sanctions are back on the table it appears. Economic sanctions on the world's second largest energy exporter are, unsurprisingly, not great for downward price pressure. 

In contrast to Crude - US Natural Gas inventory was up 94 bcf and prices dipped slightly. That sounds like good news after the supply crunch (not to mention spiking prices) of this past winter, and it is, but bear in mind prices are likely to remain relatively high for nat gas in the foreseeable future. Why? Because even with a build of 94 bcf, supplies are close to 45% lower than they were just a year ago today and the only demand control as supply limps back up is the price level, unfortunately. 

In the broader stock market, the S&P is poised for a weekly loss, largely due to drops in energy & utility shares. The DIJA dropped 4.1 percent in 5 days over tech stock dissapointments (ahem, Twitter & Groupon), and the Nasdaq dropped almost 2% as well. Last week stocks were up for the week minus a Friday drop off, which was a little unforseen because the weekly jobs report was strong (at least on the headline level).

April's Job numbers showed unemployment dropped to 6.3%, the lowest in 5 years. However, the margin of error for revision is pretty large on these reports of late, so there may be some hesitancy in the market until the "real" numbers materialize. Additionally, the work force participation rate dropped to 62.8%, tying the all time worst record from 1978 (also October and December of 2013).

There's been a lot of contradictory indicators as of late from different segments -  real estate, manufacturing, labor participation, and Jobless claim numbers, for example, that make it difficult to get a good overall picture of the economy. As they say, the truth likely lies somewhere in the middle, but who knows where that is.   

 

 

 

 

Read More

Topics: Brent Crude, Inventory report, Jobless numbers, Crude draws, russia, ukraine,

WTI Drops Big (Again) on Expected Builds

Posted by Kelly Burke on Apr 22, 2014 2:53:08 PM

Barrel of oil with a line chart aiming up

Last week as we discussed, the EIA reports for the prior week (ending April 11) saw inventory builds in US Crude supplies while gasoline inventories drew down. Crude Inventories actually hit their highest level since June 2013 and production hit its highest level since 1988. 

Platt's is estimating that this Wednesdays EIA report (on the week ending April 18th) will show inventory builds of  up to10 million gallons. As a result of the anticipated build, WTI has dropped more than we've seen in the previous 3 months. Brent Crude, the European benchmark, wasn't quite so lucky.

Compared to WTI's over 2% drop, Brent was down less than one percent on continued Ukrainian tensions (stop me if you've heard this one before...) and on the heels of Vice President Biden's speech this morning in Kiev, in which he expressed US support for Ukraine. The sentiment, though true, wasn't very helpful for the already fragile (read: falling apart) agreements with Russia to reduce friction in the area, especially coming one day after Secretary Kerry demanded that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov control seperatist activity in Ukraine, with the Russians firing back that the US should intercede in to control "Ukrainian militia activity" in the region and today insisting that any agreements reached in Geneva "have nothing to do with us".  

The global headache that is Ukrainian/Russian/US relations at the moment would likely have resulted in a lot of market volatility and price spikes, but consistently increasing inventory levels have seemingly kept it at bay, particularly domestically. Hopefully that trend continues, and we start to see some progress towards resolution in Eastern Europe.

 

Read More

Topics: EIA, Brent Crude, Brent vs WTI, Inventory report, russia, ukraine,, WTI Crude

Markets Up on Ukraine Tensions, Inventory Projections, and Chinese Economic Data

Posted by Kelly Burke on Apr 16, 2014 11:14:35 AM

World map with Ukraine and Russia highlighted

(Image Credit - Russavia [CC-BY-SA-2.5 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.5)], via Wikimedia Commons)

Deja Vu - global oil prices are again creeping higher on increasing friction on the Ukraine-Russia standoff, projected inventory numbers, and Chinese economic numbers suggesting slower growth than anticipated. Didn't we just go through this two weeks ago??

Brent CRUDE hit over $110 Tuesday for the first time since March 4th on increasing concern over long term energy supply impacts of the mounting Ukrainian situation, and concerns of potential Western (US) interventions. Tuesday saw Ukranian troops clash with Russians at an occupied airport in Kramatorsk, about 100 miles from the Russian border - the first armed clash thus far in the ongoing power struggle. Tuesday also saw Ukranian troops headed toward the Russian border, counter to the tens of thousands of Russian troops reportedly stationed there. Concerns over potential Western response pushed stock markets lower, including the German DAX and Russian MICEX and pushed Brent and WTI prices up, with Brent hitting $110 as we mentioned, and WTI gaining to as much as 104.99 ahead of Inventory numbers due out later today. 

The primary cited reason for the jumps is the escalations in the Ukraine, but Chinese Economic data is also looking weaker than projected, with economic expansion numbers clocking in at the lowest we've seen in 6 quarters and falling short of the governments stated target of 7.5% growth. On the bright side, the Hariga port in Libya loaded for the first time in July when it was seized and shut down by rebels. 

Domestically, US inventories on gas are projected to show draws of up to 1.75 mb in Bloomberg estimates, while CRUDE is expected to show builds, and distillates are projected to be largely stable. It will be interesting to see how pricing plays out if the EIA report pulls the rug out from under the analysts like it did the last week of March.

Read More

Topics: weekly inventory numbers, Chinese Industrial Output, russia, ukraine,

Surprise CRUDE Inventory Drops Catch Analysts Off Guard - but NYMEX Holds on to Week's Losses

Posted by Kelly Burke on Apr 2, 2014 3:01:39 PM

Line charts depicting the stock market scattered on a table

The EIA Inventory data out today showed that US Crude stocks unexpectedly fell 2.38 million barrels last week - if you remember, earlier this week, analysts were expecting roughly that amount of BUILD to be reported. Gulf Coast inventories had been expected to show a huge build but instead dropped by over a million barrels. On the other side, gasoline inventories dropped essentially in line with expectations, falling by a little over 1.5 million barrels. 

So what happened on Crude?

Consensus seems to be the main factor was the Houston shipping lane closure we discussed last week - the interruption likely caused higher draws than anticipated, primarily because it impacted imports to the Gulf during the shutdown, forcing refineries to pull off existing stock. This makes sense, as we saw a much larger reversal in inventory actuals versus expectations in the Gulf Coast region than generally.   

Despite the surprise inventory numbers, NYMEX futures are still trending down today. 

Interestingly, RBOB prices continue to trend downwards (although it pulled in mostly by the close) despite sustained and growing issues with ethanol supply, and a dramatic increase in its cost. Bloomberg reports that ethanol climbed 81% over the quarter, so even though RBOB is dropping on the screen, it's very unlikely consumers will see any real relief at the pump any time soon - at least until the supply and logistics issues spiking the price of ethanol subside.  

At the Close - ULSD settled -0.0212 to 2.8666, RBOB settled -0.0029 to 2.8668, and CRUDE settled out -0.12 to 99.62 

Read More

Topics: EIA, Ethanol, CRUDE, NYMEX, Inventory Draws, Crude draws

Crude Continues to Drop on Supply Estimates & Manufacturing Speculations

Posted by Kelly Burke on Apr 1, 2014 1:44:21 PM

Crude - both Brent and WTI - continued to drop today on speculations of another inventory build on tommorows EIA report. According to a Bloomberg survey, tommorows report may show increases of 1.8mbl up to 2.5mbbl. The prior weeks report (the tenth increase in a row) indicated US Crude inventories climbed to 385 million barrels, the highest on hand since November, with PADD 3 numbers (Gulf Coast) hit over 200 million barrels, the highest since 1990. 

Additional domestic factors in the market drop is an anticipated failure of US Manufacturing increases to meet projected gains. Internationally, China is showing a drop in manufacturing index to below 50, signaling a contraction in the sector. Euro zone manufacturing is expected to show stagnant to weak numbers as well. Overall, global economic indicators are not very confidence inspiring, and in combination with increasing supply, and the impending end of the heating season in the US, we should see the market continue a downward trend, assuming EIA reports back speculative numbers. 

Last week's jobless numbers saw an unanticipated drop of 10,000 initial jobless claims. It will be interesting to see what this Friday's numbers look like - a continuing downward trend would be a positive economic sign, but time will tell what the overall impact will be. 

 

U.S. crude oil stocks graph

(Image Credit: EIA.gov)

 

Read More

Topics: EIA, Brent Crude, Brent vs WTI, Jobless numbers, US Manufacturing Data, WTI Crude

Houston & Ukraine Concerns Drive Early Week's Market Swings

Posted by Kelly Burke on Mar 26, 2014 2:29:49 PM

 

Sinking barge

(USCG Photo/Reuters)

The first half of the week saw futures up and down on reactions to international tensions, and on the news of the 22nd’s collision between a bulk carrier and a barge resulting in the temporary closure of the Houston shipping channel connecting the Gulf of Mexico with Gulf Coast refineries. The collision resulted in a spill of up to 170,000 gallons of bunker fuel into Galveston Bay and caused immediate closure for cleanup operation, according to the AP in Houston. Tuesday saw the channel partially reopen, but the Coast Guard reported it would be an additional several days before it reopened to full capacity. About 10% of US refining capacity is based in the Gulf area. The positive news is that the channel will reopen relatively quickly and isn’t anticipated to have any long term price implications.

Of more concern for long term energy pricing is the growing and continued tension over Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and the potential impacts on the European energy situation that could hike prices significantly. We will likely see impact of US and/or G7 proposed sanctions begin to hit the markets this week or next, especially if significant action is taken on the proposed intervention on Russian oil nat & gas dependency, and on Emergency Funding measures for Ukraine. In the US, the Senate voted down the IMF/Ukraine Emergency fund Legislation presented on Tuesday, but another vote on the bill without the more controversial IMF reforms included is scheduled for Thursday, and according to both Speaker Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Reid, it is expected to pass both houses.


 

 
Read More

Topics: Gulf Oil Leak, G7 summit,, Putin,, ukraine,, Houston Shipping Channel,

Don't Forget! MA Gas & Diesel Tax Rate Change Effective Today!

Posted by Kelly Burke on Jul 31, 2013 11:04:00 AM

The State of Massachusetts, as part of the Transportation bill, has voted to increase the state excise tax on gas & diesel. This increase will be tied to inflation and increase annually. The increase this year, effective today, July 31 2013, is $0.03, which raises the excise tax to $0.24 per gallon.

 

 

The current breakdown of taxes on over the road fuel products in MA is as follows:

 

Diesel

Federal Excise Tax: .243

Federal Lust: .001

Federal Oil Spill: .0019

MA State Excise Diesel: .240

MA URP: .0119

MA UST : .025

 

Gas:

Federal Excise Tax: .183

Federal Lust: .001

Federal Oil Spill: .00171

MA State Excise: .24

MA URP: .00119

MA UST: .025

Read More

Topics: MA Excise Tax, Gas Tax

Recent Posts

Posts by Topic

see all