Up Like a Rocket, Down Like a Feather

This time last week futures markets were screaming higher on diminishing trade talks with China and larger sanctions on Russia Crude producers and their buyers.  Those sanctions, primarily focused on India, appear to be getting some attention as India’s largest refiner is soliciting outside bids for 24mbls of crude for Q1 2026.  While that may keep the price higher, on the flipside, we are now “on the same page” with China after yesterdays meeting between the two leaders.  As both sides walk back from stronger stances on tariffs, rare earth minerals (this is an important term for years to come), and Ukraine, one would think markets would cool off dramatically. The $.25 gain in diesel pricing in the last week put us right back to the top of the range.  Up like a rocket, down like a feather.  Largely overlooked was the FED cutting rates by another Quarter point and signaling at least one more this year as labor markets start to cool off and inflation appears to be artificially inflated by tariffs.  Inventory data is all over the map recently, specifically demand, which again showed weakness this week, might be an effect of the shutdown.  The key factor this last week is that we didn’t set a higher high, meaning expect a gradual slide back to levels touched a week ago.