The Elephant in the Room

I was out the last few days.  Anything happen while I was gone?  The elephant in the room is what to expect with a new Administration coming in January.  Short term, don’t expect much to change as the market still relies heavily on fundamental factors such as Hurricane Rafael now a CAT3 storm in the gulf causing yet another round of oil platform evacuations.  Demand for both gasoline and diesel taking massive hits this week.  Distillate demand was shown down 12% to last week and almost off 20% to the same period last year.  The storm would support pricing (as it showed Monday and Tuesday), demand figures would push futures lower (yesterday and today).  Looking longer range, it is expected that more Pro-Business (oil & gas) policies are to be in place for the first half of 2025.  Opening up of Federal land for production should push pricing lower.  But the demand has to be there for a driller to want to drill.  AND they have to find the people to do it.  Refiners are currently running at 91% capacity.   Last weeks jobs report should issue in another quarter point reduction in key interest rates.   With those pro-business policies, will that stimulate growth and keep inflation high?  Will this be the last rate reduction we see in a while?  It’s a tight rope to walk, not as easy to just “drill baby drill”.  OPEC+ put a surprise halt on new supply increases attributed to earlier gains.  It is the thought that the Trump Administration will be more direct and influential with the Cartel going forward, along with other Nations.  It will be a tough task to resolve both the Ukraine and Israel situation, a band aid on either will be a win.