With an early morning report of the death of the former Libyan dictator, I would have bet the house that it would be received as bearish news. As the morning started off up strong in both pits, the slow chipping away at values as many digested what this really meant to oil markets. Two distinct camps once again. One side believes Libyan oil, about 1mb per day capacity, will now find its way into friendlier markets, pushing values down. The other warns against an ongoing struggle within the Country as a vacuum occurs and a new regime comes into power. Sometimes the devil you know is better than the devil you don't. With Barclays reporting today that the death, while important, will do little to the "underlying dynamics" of the situation. That is, roughly 50% of the countries production is for domestic use. The Bulls won on the day in similar fashion as the Bears won yesterday, a late rally with less than an hour left tin the session. RBOB was down over .07 at one point to finish up .0040 to close at $2.6755, HEAT added .0489 to $3.0301 (some .06 off the days low). Yet again, WTI shed gains while its stepchildren added, finishing down .81 to $85.30. HEAT still is at the top end of the range as the chart below shows, many are convinced we will continue the cycle and see a sixth attempt at the 2.70 level.
|
RBOB CLOSE
|
|
CLOSE CHANGE
NOV 26755 +.0040
DEC 26570 +.0121
JAN 26466 +.0168
FEB 26415 +.0175
MAR 26424 +.0169
APR 27606 +.0180
|
|
HEAT CLOSE
|
|
CLOSE CHANGE
NOV 30301 +.0489
DEC 30266 +.0466
JAN 30130 +.0418
FEB 29925 +.0382 MAR 29641 +.0354
APR 29203 +.0335
|
