Greece Debt Crisis pushes Nymex Lower

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jun 20, 2011 7:31:00 PM

For the fourth straight day values across the most of the complex have fallen.  This mornings early action was surrounded by ongoing debt concerns in Greece, who announced they needed an immediate $17 billion....yes, billion... dollar infusion in order to meet creditors.  As a result the Euro plummeted and the dollar soared, which pulled money out of commodities.  Many feel that downside may be limited as ongoing concerns of supply disruptions continue and we are knocking on hurricane season.  What is interesting to note about todays session was that Crude actually finished higher by.25 to close at $93.26.  Still Crude values seem low for products being so high.  HEAT fell .0573 to 2.9329 and RBOB lost .0345 to 2.9115.  Or, the products are overpriced for Crude values.  I tend to think the latter scenario is more fitting.  As you may recall it wasn't to long ago that HO was at the 2.80 level.  With todays finish, we continue to be on the back nine of the recent range and would not put it out of the realm of possibility to touch 2.80 in the near future.
Daily Heat Chart
heat chart
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
JUL     29115       -.0345
AUG    28526      -.0368
SEP    28324     -.0375
OCT    27165       -.0357
NOV     26953       -.0351
DEC    26848      -.0341
          CLOSE    CHANGE
JUL    29320       -.0513
AUG    29469      -.0509
SEP    29655     -.0502
OCT   29843      -.0495
NOV   30031       -.0490
DEC   30202       -.0481
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Topics: Greece Bailout, Dollar Strengthens

Rapture dissapoints, Commodities Tumble

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on May 23, 2011 3:39:00 PM

Not that one has to do anything with the other, but I wonder how the market would have reacted?    Even with another volcanic eruption in Iceland (coincidentally at 6:03 EST on Saturday), the markets still opened down heavily as debt concerns loom as late Friday Greece was downgraded to junk status.  Recall the last eruption sent the European airlines, and industry as a whole into a tizzy.  But with the dollar strengthening today, oil was on the opposite side of the see saw and saw another round of healthy drops.  Disappointing manufacturing numbers also weighed in pushing both pits down well over five cents.  Somehow RBOB was able to make a move and ended up finishing positive on the day.  Which is bizarre in and of itself as a report showed that Americans drove 1.4% less than the did a year ago in March.  Some blame could be towards higher fuel prices.  You have heard me say time and again that mixed days always bring a eye of suspicion.   Although today appears to be some adjusting ahead of the long weekend as outer month RBOB was down much stronger.  At the close, Crude fell $2.40 to $97.70, RBOB rose .0023 to $2.9381 and HO tumbled .0712 to $2.8471.  The key support level for Heat appears to be firmly placed at the $2.80 market, a close below that should initiate additional downside in the coming weeks.

Daily Heat Chart
heat chart
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
JUN    29381       +.0023
JUL    29059      -.0144
AUG    28739        -.0275
SEP    28451       -.0355
OCT     27111       -.0422
NOV    26834      -.0456
          CLOSE    CHANGE
JUN    28471      -.0712
JUL    28597      -.0723
AUG    28749      -.0712
SEP     28930      -.0707
OCT    29102       -.0700
NOV   29274       -.0689
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Topics: Greece downgraded, Rapture, Dollar Strengthens

Markets tumble as Dollar rises and Rivers ease

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on May 16, 2011 5:22:00 PM

Early news today had European markets standing on their head as the investors try to sort out the mess with IMF chair being arrested and how that would play into the restructuring of many foreign nations debt.  The greenback was substantially stronger this morning thus pushing commodities down.    With the pending rape charges against Dominique Strauss- Kahn, most believe this would delay or prevent the International Monetary Fund from helping countries like Greece in restructuring their massive debt.  On our own soil, the Obama Administration announced that it would extend and "ramp up" domestic production in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska which had some significant psychological effects on trading.  As the day went on, and some disappointing manufacturing numbers were released, the dollar softened and we actually looked to be heading towards the positive side around lunchtime. Ahead of the bell, markets continued to falter as flood fears began to subside with the Army Corps of Engineers opening spillways to divert waters from reaching major refinery points in the Louisiana area.  At the close, Crude lost $2.49 to $97.17, HEAT shed .0678 to $2.8744 and RBOB tumbled .1433 to $2.9311.  Look for continued length to be shed with bounces in between as the current downward trend remains your friend.

heat chart


                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
JUN    29311       -.1433
JUL    29017       -.1146
AUG    28779        -.0969
SEP    28570       -.0847
OCT     27267       -.0723
NOV    27002      -.0668
          CLOSE    CHANGE
JUN    28744      -.0678
JUL    28886      -.0649
AUG    29030      -.0620
SEP     29197      -.0603
OCT    29360       -.0593
NOV   29524       -.0584
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Topics: Spillways, IMF leader arrested, Dollar Strengthens

NYMEX continues to slide, tests support

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Aug 23, 2010 9:47:00 PM

With only 3 up days to speak of in the last two weeks, the early morning gains have become increasingly more difficult to give any credence to. The day saw pits start off up over a penny a piece but as the opening bell range, price fell off the shelf. Front month RBOB, under pressure as a lame duck product, fell .04 cents in a matter of minutes. As investors continue to point towards struggling economic picture as reasons for the retreats, the failure for HEAT to break the $1.95 support level tells another story. For the third time since Mid May, HEAT has touched the $1.95 area only to shoot to the $2.20 level in the following 30 day stretch. Not that past performance is any indication of future potential, but it sure does look convincing. (see chart below) As the day wore and the Dollar got stronger, it appeared that funds were content in some profit taking. At the Close, Crude fell .72 to $73.10, HEAT dropped .0156 to $1.9554 and front month RBOB lost .0441 to $1.8810 while OCT RBOB lost only .0285 to $1.8390.


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Topics: NYMEX, The Market, Daily Heating Chart, Dollar Strengthens

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