NYMEX Makes an About-Face on Jobs Report

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on May 3, 2013 5:06:00 PM

After starting the early morning in the red, Markets made an about face mid morning as new economic news hit the wires. The Jobs report showed an additional 165,000 jobs were added last month, above the 148k expected. That pushed unemployment down to roughly 7.5%, additionally the magic pencil revised March and February numbers up by a combined 60k jobs. While these are encouraging numbers for the US workforce, most agree that the World market may not be as optimistic. A well supplied market and growing concern over an already fragile European Zone, which today cut forward growth rates, has limited the upside to the NYMEX over the last several sessions. Additionally, China is expected to report sluggish manufacturing rates next week. As the day went on, distillate markets cooled off while gasoline still stayed strong. Look for next week to be much of the same as positions look to be solidified as we move towards the summer driving hype. At the close, Crude added $1.62 to $95.61, HEAT gained .0289 $2.8844, and RBOB jumped .0448 to $2.8254



Daily heat chart

RBOB Close
JUN 2.8254 +.0448
JUL 2.8072 +.0418
AUG 2.7817 +.0399
SEP 2.7515 +.0394
OCT 2.6101 +.0392
NOV 2.5867 +.0376
HEAT Close
JUN 2.8844 +.0289
JUL 2.8824 +.0291
AUG 2.8884 +.0312
SEP 2.8964 +.0321
OCT 2.9032 +.0324
NOV 2.9072 +.0321
Read More

Topics: European Economy, Jobless numbers, Euro Debt Zone, Chinese Industrial Output

NYMEX Tumbles as Markets eye Italian Election

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Feb 26, 2013 5:08:00 PM

Bears were out in full force today (actually saw them hit after the close on Monday) as all eyes were watching election results in Italy.  No clear cut winner has been announced thus casting doubt and uncertainty on recently passed austerity measures.   The effect saw the US Dollar rise against the World basket forcing Commodities to fall harder than Tom Brady's Agents Commission check.  Adding to the sell off was increasingly better news from the housing market with December values showing a .2% increase and 6.8% increase year on year.  All this and as I walked into a lunch saw Fed Chief Bernanke on a big screen TV saying the economy is far better off than in recent years and that the FED is currently looking at ways to end its quantitative easing policies.  Today had a flurry of news to push pricing down, but I still hang my hat on  the saying "high prices is the cure for high prices"  as we exit the heating season in the Northeast and some retail stations above $4.00 a  gallon,  some would say the US economy would struggle to support these energy costs.  At the close, Crude lost .48 to $92.63, HEAT fell .0672 to $3.0317 and RBOB tumbled .0795 to $2.9816. 

Italian heat chart

                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
MAR       29816       -.0795
APR        31988      -.0648
MAY      31617      -.0625
JUN         31035      -.0604
JUL          30450       -.0583
AUG        29872        -.0560
          CLOSE    CHANGE
MAR        30317      -.0672
APR        30268      -.0713
MAY       31139     -.0672
JUN        30862      -.0645
JUL        30704        -.0622
AUG       30576     -.0594
Read More

Topics: Commodities, Italian Election, RBOB tumbles, Dollar Strengthens

Futures Continue to Rise as Supply Questions Loom

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jan 29, 2013 3:41:00 PM

The NYMEX continued strong gains as most early risers thought we would see a reversal of yesterdays spike. At 5 am, RBOB was down almost .03 and HO was down about a penny. It had me thinking that yesterdays reaction to the Hess announcement that it was closing their New Jersey refinery was somewhat overdone. But as the rest of the world woke up, and saw the Dollar struggling, Futures made an about face at the open. While consumer confidence was reported to be at the lowest levels since late 2011 (maybe an effect of Americans seeing less in their checks this month), Home values were reported to see roughly a 5.5% increase in values year on year. Back to the notion of a gasoline shortage, with there being only two major refineries to serve the Eastcoast, it is easy to see how some can predict a long term crunch. My hunch is higher prices will solve that problem eventually. Still, HO has risen above the top end of the range we have been stuck in since October, closing up .0476 to 3.1092, RBOB added.0386 to 2.9734 and Crude gained $1.13 to $97.57. All ahead of the relatively tropical forecast for the next two days. (shown below)

Weather heat map of the USA

FEB 29734 +.0386
MAR 29763 +.0354
APR 31242 +.0388
MAY 30961 +.0364
JUN 30469 +.0332
JUL 29971 +.0306
FEB 31092 +.0476
MAR 30986 +.0443
APR 30806 +.0398
MAY 31151 +.0360
JUN 30961 +.0326
JUL 30856 +.0308
Read More

Topics: Hess closes Refinery, Dollar Struggles, East Coast Refineries, Gasoline Supply Crunch

NYMEX Stays Range Bound with Strong Pull Back

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jan 11, 2013 5:15:00 PM

Most pundits have been warning of upside breakout potential with this market for the last several sessions. When you really look at HO for the last four months, the defined range of 2.95 to 3.05 has held, with conviction. As much as I try to disprove the techies with fundamental basics, I am batting roughly .146 since October. That's a slump!

Although, we must point that todays selling seemed to be a reaction to China data reporting that runaway inflation is imminent. The news should have sent futures higher but those trying to avoid risk proceeded to sell off. Additionally, the Saudi Group has acknowledged lower production rates, signaling to the investors that demand may be waning in the weeks to come.

This weeks massive builds in products weighed heavy today in the minds of traders as many had to decide to be long or short with it almost 40 degrees in mid January. At the close, Crude fell .26 to $93.56, HO lost .0458 to $3.0085 and RBOB slipped .0538 to $2.7395


Heat map

FEB 27395 -.0538
MAR 27543 -.0483
APR 29165 -.0381
MAY 29072 -.0375
JUN 28771 -.0253
JUL 28422 -.0335
FEB 30085 -.0458
MAR 30018 -.0438
APR 29901 -.0422
MAY 30210 -.0410
JUN 30050 -.0398
JUL 29969 -.0385
Read More

Topics: Saudi Group, Chinese Inflation, Fundamentals, Distillates Build

Futures Rise as Cliff gets Less Steep and DOE's Draw

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Dec 19, 2012 5:40:00 PM

Overnight trading set the tone for much of todays session as early markets were up well over two cents on both products. News out of European Markets showed that Greece's credit rating had been upgraded along with an unexpected increase in the consumer confidence among Germans had pushed the US dollar lower. Commodities were the unfortunate collateral damage in this scenario. More importantly, it appears that some movement by GOP leaders to increase taxes on those Americans making over $1 million a year (Phew, I'm safe!) has been seen as a major concession in the stalled talks. Again, Bullish on Commodities. Lastly, the DOE's released the weekly numbers that showed draws in distillates and Crude, -1.1mbl and 949k respectively, with a modest build in gasolines, +2.2mbl. The report was viewed as Bullish by most even with Crude missing the expectations of a 1.3mbl draw, evidence of the mentality of the day already given up to higher prices. Look for action to continue higher as a historical light trading week winds down and HO stays well within the 2.90 to 3.10 range we have been in for the last 90 days. At the close, Crude gained $1.58 to $89.51, Heat added .0391 to $3.0356 and RBOB led gaining .0522 to $3.7431.



heat map


JAN 27431 +.0522
FEB 27338 +.0496
MAR 27412 +.0495
APR 28792 +.0582
MAY 28719 +.0499
JUN 28406 +.0486
JAN 30356 +.0391
FEB 30313 +.0374
MAR 30176 +.0353
APR 29965 +.0355
MAY 30258 +.0352
JUN 30077 +.0345
Read More

Topics: Fiscal Cliff, Dollar falls, DOE, Crude draws, Tax Increases

Different Day, Same Headline as Futures Retreat

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Dec 11, 2012 8:23:00 AM

Once again the NYMEX started off the session well into positive territory with a strong Sunday night open. Much of the gains were attributed to Chinese data released Sunday that showed its Industrial Output rose year over year, signaling stronger demand. But as the day wore on, continued worries about Europe, as the Italian Prime Minister abruptly resigned, appeared to be entering into Traders minds. That fear turned inward as the real concern centers around US distillate demand. Its Common knowledge that inventory levels of distillates are on the very low end of the range, so in the minds of most, the lack of demand is overshadowing the lack of product. Others point that this is just the season to book some profits as traders square up the quarter. I'm pleasantly surprised that we have maintained HO below the $2.95 level, a clear level of support is difficult to define at this time. At the close, Crude fell .37 to $85.56, RBOB was up only 7 points to $2.5981 and HEAT led the charge lower falling .0191 to $2.8962.

Heat map


JAN 25981 +.0007
FEB 26071 +.0024
MAR 26266 +.0034
APR 27758 +.0041
MAY 27705 +.0035
JUN 27437 +.0020
JAN 28962 -.0191
FEB 29056 -.0184
MAR 29043 -.0178
APR 28923 -.0157
MAY 29227 -.0138
JUN 29095 -.0124
Read More

Topics: Prime Minister Resigns, US Distillate Demand, NYMEX, Chinese Industrial Output

Burke Oil Aids FEMA in Storm Restoration

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Nov 14, 2012 9:06:00 AM

Almost two weeks after Superstorm Sandy slammed the East Coast, Massachusetts fuel distributor Dennis K. Burke, Inc. continues sending fuel and resources to assist in FEMA relief efforts in the storm devastated areas of New York and New Jersey.

Adding insult to injury, a second major storm brought whipping winds and record snowfalls, hampering utility workers and adding another 200,000 to the 550,000 homes left without power.

Initially, Burke started sending fuel trucks to support the utility trucks traveling to some of the worst hit areas of New York. Two days after the storm, Burke sent five more trailers of fuel to join the caravans of utility trucks heading towards New York.

Just as the fuel distributor’s trucks were arriving in New York, FEMA officials were asking Burke if they could help by bringing in fuel for the army of emergency vehicles that were brought in to help with the recovery. The fuel dealer has been sending several trucks to New York and New Jersey every day since.

Dennis K Burke refueling trucks in a convoy

Burke has decades of working with utility companies in rough weather. During bad storms, the fuel company often sends trucks to fuel the utility trucks and tree-cutter’s trucks while they’re parked and out of service.

The company also offers its customers an emergency generator program, where they check the generator’s fuel status and guaranteeing emergency fuel deliveries in the New England area.

Dennis K. Burke, Inc. is one of New England’s leading suppliers of diesel fuel, gasoline and motor oil products. Burke supplies fuel customers in ten states, with terminal positions in eight states, across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region.

Read More

Topics: Emergency Generator Program, New York Disaster Recovery, Hurricane Sandy, FEMA

New England braces for "Frankenstorm" - Is your Generator Ready?

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Oct 26, 2012 1:34:00 PM

As New England starts preparing for Hurricane Sandy’s expected landfall, don’t forget to make sure your generator is ready for the impact.  The Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) is predicting significant impacts to Massachusetts from the storm including downed powerlines, associated blackouts, and coastal flooding. (If you remember, in 2011, thousands of Mass residents went without power for several days after a freak October storm that downed powerlines.)  Experts are predicting up to a billion dollars of damage could result from the storm – to put that in perspective, “The Perfect Storm” that hit the East Coast in 1991 caused 200 million in damages.

Don’t roll the dice on this happening to you or your business.  A fueled up, properly operating generator is absolutely essential to ensure staff safety, protect crucial computer data, and keep your business’ critical operations from grinding to a halt.

Dennis K Burke is standing by, on call, to handle your generator fuel needs. We are on call 24-7-365 and run a full staff of drivers 7 days a week to ensure that your fuel needs are met. No matter what the emergency – we’ve got you covered.

We would also like to remind you that we have an Emergency Generator Fueling Program to ensure that a key part of your reliability plan for backup power is not overlooked going forward.

On this program, when the power is out, we guarantee fuel deliveries to keep your generator operating until the power outage is resolved, regardless of how long that might take. We have the fuel storage, the trucks, and the manpower to back it up.

To place an order for your generator, or to find out more about the program call us at 617-884-7800, or email us at insidesales@burkeoil.com. Any one of our dedicated, professional staff members can assist you.

Read More

Topics: Hurricane Sandy, Emergency Fuel, Generator Fuel

NYMEX Collapses as Last Weeks Gains Erased

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Sep 17, 2012 5:45:00 PM

What a difference a week makes! Last Monday we were gearing up for a strong week ahead of QE3. Today saw the entire weeks gains in the Heating Oil pit get erased, finishing slightly below last Mondays close down .0761 to $3.1634. That is after the pit pulled back some even more robust losses that at about 1:30 had HO down .12 and RBOB down just over .11 cents. We said the 3.25 level on prompt month HO was a pretty strong resistance area and today's OCT HO high just happened to be 3.2500. Technical- schmechnical, it appears as though rumors abound that there was an SPR release of gallons happening. To which is still do not fully understand, if the Government has to maintain required levels in the SPR, are they not just selling high and replacing at a lower price later? To be clear on QE3, of which the Fed is buying back some $4 billion in mortgage backed securities, this had and still has the potential to be bullish for commodities should the dollar fall. But lets live for today and be happy the market fell today. Crude finished down $2.38 to $96.62 and RBOB lost .0723 to 2.9433.

Daily Heat Chart

heat chart

OCT 29433 -.0723
NOV 28596 -.0719
DEC 28050 -.0712
JAN 27798 -.0714
FEB 27965 -.0710
MAR 27868 -.0706
OCT 31634 -.0761
NOV 31644 -.0741
DEC 31633 -.0718
JAN 31594 -.0694
FEB 31472 -.0671
MAR 31259 -.0646
Read More

Topics: Commodities, QE3, SPR Gallon Release

Futures Move Higher as Stimulus Plan Takes Shape

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Sep 10, 2012 3:52:00 PM

While much of todays chatter centered around the wild cash blowout of gasoline on Friday, up some .24 in NY harbor, markets found a way to turn positive ahead of the close. Many are betting that a new round of Quantitative Easing, also known as QE3, will be announced after this weeks FED meeting. This bet was doubled down after Fridays disappointing payroll figures.While the stimulus plans are designed to boost economic activity, Commodity prices are often collateral damage and many agree that we might see higher prices with this round. Keeping the pits in check are the fundamentals which, even besides this weekends short term blowout, the nation is well supplied. Additionally there was a memo sent by the Saudi Oil Minister confirming the oversupply of product as well as the unsubstantiated value of the current marketplace. Look for the remainder of the week to be a wild one. At the Close, Crude finished up .12 to $96.54, HEAT gained .0179 to $3.1668 and RBOB .0044 to $3.0240


Daily Heating Oil Chart

Heat map

OCT 30240 +.0044
NOV 29051 +.0059
DEC 28304 +.0059
JAN 28013 +.0054
FEB 27965 +.0058
MAR 28059 +.0059
OCT 31668 +.0179
NOV 31674 +.0167
DEC 31666 +.0167
JAN 31639 +.0173
FEB 31524 +.0186
MAR 31322 +.0192
Read More

Topics: CRUDE, RBOB, QE3, Basis Blowout, Saudi Oil Minister

Recent Posts

Posts by Topic

see all