The US Energy Information Association - EIA - is out today with the Short Term Energy Outlook report with projections for 2019 & 2020.
Here are what I think are the major takeaways:
- 2019 Price forecast for Crude oil - $61/bbl Brent, $53-57/bbl WTI. The Brent average for 2018 was $71/bbl, so we are expecting to continue to downward overall trend in pricing.
- 2019 Projected retail gas price - $2.47 (Down from 2018 average of $2.73)
- US Crude Production hit a high in 2018 - it is expected to continue to accelerate from the current level through 2019 & 2020. Over the next 2 years, experts expect an increase of over 1.5 million barrels per day.
- US Importing of crude & refined products is expected to continue to decline. Although we temporarily saw the US become a net exporter in 2018, the actual average per day imported was around 2 million barrels. That's expected to decline to 1mmb/d for 2019 and a shocking 0.1 mmb/d per day in 2020. (You read that right - .01, amazing)
- US (Dry) Natural Gas production is expected to jump from 83 bcf per day in 2018 to 90 in 2019.
- Global Inventories are expected to continue to increase.
- On the clean energy front, coal's role in electrical production continues to decline over the next 2 years. Hydropower's share of generation is projected to remain stable. Wind power electrical generation is expected to outpace hydropower for the first time ever in 2019.
- Carbon emissions are projected to decline 1.2% in 2019 as well, and a little under 1% for 2020 as it stands now.
Long story short - expect more production, more inventory, lower prices, continued progress and growth on cleaner energy and a decline in carbon emissions - all at the same time. Happy 2019!