Dennis K. Burke, Inc. Market Updates

Market Psychology, Tariffs, and the Illusion of Range

Written by Mark Pszeniczny | Jul 24, 2025 12:15:00 PM

Rangebound is a common term used to describe a market that is confined within a particular space or price range.  Looking at the ULSD chart below for the last several months you would be crazy to call it rangebound.  But a closer look at the last two weeks, it indeed looks as though we are stuck in a range.  Last Friday saw intraday prices jump over $.10 higher, only to close down $.01.  Markets have psychology to them, albeit sometimes schizophrenic, nevertheless it exists.  There is an underlying sentiment that, with yet again a tariff deadline looming, we could see a sharp downturn in global demand.  So why you ask isn’t the market in a range of lower pricing ready to jump higher?  The last several months of conflicts throughout the world has risen us to a level that has become comfortable for many.  Important to note that ULSD once again is presently $.13 backwards to January, meaning the outer months are less expensive than the near months.   Does that provide any indication of where we might end up?  With the US and Japan reaching a trade deal this week, and other Nations at least talking, my guess is we remain rangebound and down for a while, until the elephant in the room (China) has a deal.  Every company, owner, management has a different approach or need when it comes to fuel supply.  The great thing about DKB is that we can accommodate all of them.