Dennis K. Burke, Inc. Market Updates

Distillates Down, Tonnage Down, Tariffs Up: What’s Fueling the Diesel Drop

Written by Mark Pszeniczny | May 22, 2025 12:15:00 PM

The sell off in Diesel futures recently is welcome news to most as pricing is down roughly $.10 from a week ago.  With new demand figures released yesterday showing distillates off 12% over last year and gasoline down just over 7%, odds are that we could continue to see this trend develop.  Trucking tonnage was also reported as being down 1.8% in the last two months.  As mentioned, many use tonnage as a symptom of the overall health of the economy.  The decline in fuel demand and amount of goods being shipped, one has to attribute some of it to the tariff virus.  US ports are down anywhere from 13%-50% in volume, with buyers “hitting the pause button” on foreign imports.  The ripple affect will make its way into the fuel market until alternate goods are sourced.  Russian and OPEC influences still exist.  As Russia refused to attend Ukrainian peace talks, the European Union immediately put docking and port access sanctions on the over 200 shadow fleet tankers roaming about the seas.  The hope is that it forces Russia at least to the table.  OPEC seems content with current output Quotas putting pressure on US producers as current Crude values are right about our breakeven point of $61 per barrel.    Again, their breakeven is much lower.  Looks to be a somewhat rocky road for the next few weeks in terms of pricing, as always we strive to relieve that burden to all of our Customers.  Feel free to reach out to discuss your specific needs.