Dennis K. Burke, Inc. Market Updates

Fear, Greece, DOE send market south

Written by Mark Pszeniczny | May 6, 2010 12:26:00 AM

While I thought we were in for a correction, I wouldn’t have thought in a million years that we would see 20 cents in gas and 15 cents in HEAT get wiped away in two sessions. Playing in on the days action was the continued fear that the European Union is in a whole bunch of trouble with the Greece bailout plan. Not only that, but Spain and Portugal appear to be next in line. That pushed the dollar higher and the selling tsunami hit at the opening bell as the shift from optimism to fear hit investors in their jugular, their wallet. On the Inventory front, while bearish, for the most part were in line with expectations. Crude stocks grew by 2.75mbl vs estimates of +1.0. Gasolines added 1.25mbl vs estimates of 1.0 and Distillates posted increases of 575k barrels, much less than the 2.0mbl expected. The issue in the Gulf, may not rear its head for a few weeks on the inventory front. Be weary though, looking at the chart below, we can see the pattern of two weeks ago where we anticipated a continued correction before jumping 15 cents in two weeks, noting HEAT stopped dead in its tracks hitting the 38% retracement level and actually put the rally hat on mid day and was only down about 3 cents before slipping into the close finishing -.0750 to $2.1845. RBOB tumbled again falling .1018 to $2.2204 and Crude lost $2.77 finishing below $80 to $79.97. Look for a third down day to confirm a prolonged trend reversal.