OPEC output keeps upward price pressure on, while PDVSA sanctions have little impact

Posted by Kelly Burke on Feb 13, 2019 3:44:43 PM

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Prices have been trending upward this week, largely based on OPEC following through on production cuts. Namely, we saw a drop in output of around 800K bpd in January by its member nations. This would seem to indicate that the so called "OPEC+ deal" to cut output and thus global oversupply is actually being followed, and it appears it is starting to have the desired effect - stabilizing prices higher than we have seen over the past year or so.

On the other hand, US domestic production continues to surge, which is holding off the major jumps in pricing we would expect to see on the OPEC move normally. 

This afternoon WTI settled out at $53.90 (from 52.41 Monday), ULSD closed up +.0316 to $1.9388, and RBOB jumped +.0379 to settle at $1.4651.

Assuming we see the existing dynamic continue to play out over global (OPEC) vs domestic (US) output, the main question on how widely pricing will swing in the next few weeks hinges on Venezuela.

The sanctions placed on state run PDVSA by the Trump administration are the type of political event that normally rocks the market, but so far in terms of benchmarking they have had little effect (on the NYMEX - that is not to say they have not or will not have a serious impact Venezuela/PDVSA, to be clear).

CNBC has a great piece today detailing the impacts the IEA expects to see from the sanctions, and why they don't see them having an outsized impact. You can read that piece here:  "Don't expect US sanctions against Venezuela to fuel a rally in oil prices, IEA says" 

Stay tuned! 

 

 

 

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Topics: PDVSA, Venezuela, OPEC, US Crude Production

EIA Draws Keep NYMEX Boosted; Venezuelan Vote & Sanctions Loom on the Horizon

Posted by Kelly Burke on Jul 26, 2017 3:26:56 PM

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Today, the NYMEX continued it's winning streak - At the end of the day, we settled up across the board yet again, with Crude settling out at $48.75/bbl (+1.7%), ULSD climbed +.0268 to $1.5953 and RBOB edged up +.02111 to $1.6173. 

Yesterday we talked about the OPEC production & export factors affecting the market, as well as projected slow downs in domestic oil & gas exploration. (For a refresher, you can peruse yesterdays article here: 2017s Largest One Day Rally Hits on OPEC & US Production Projections ) 

Today, while API projections called for a 10.23mmb draw in Crude, the EIA Inventory Report showed an actual draw of 7.2mmb. Current Crude levels are now around 483.4 mmb, or the upper end of average for this time of year. For finished products, distillates drew down 1.9mmb but are still on the upper end of what we normally see for average levels, while on gasoline, projections were calling for a build of 1.9mmb but actuals showed a draw of 1mmb. 

In broader news that can potentially have huge ("YUGE!") market impacts, the Trump administration has floated the possibility of a ban on Venezuelan Crude as a U.S. response to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, should he choose to go forward with rewriting the country's constitution, in what the United States sees as a move to clamp down on opposition. The vote on rewriting the country's constitution is expected Sunday, and Platts is reporting that the U.S. Treasury department is crafting sanctions currently. 

At the same time however, even as the Treasury works out the details, it appears the Administration has already backed off of the idea after looking at its potential impacts. They are now hinting at more targeted sanctions than an overall ban, but that would still likely create some serious aftershocks in the market.

Venezuela is the third largest supplier of imported Crude oil to the United States (after Canada and Saudi Arabia), and supplies a huge percentage of the Crude refined in the Gulf Coast.

A ban could be devastating for US refiners and importers, and even simply not taking the option off the table could impact the markets in a drastic way over the next few days, particularly if the option remains even theoretically possible on Monday after the vote takes place (its expected to be a "show vote" with Maduro's desired outcome essentially 100% certain).

Definitely something to keep an eye on that could drastically change the supply and pricing picture as we know it.

Stay tuned!  

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Topics: Venezuela, CRUDE, sanctions, EIA Inventories

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