EIA Projections for 2015 & 2016 Released Today

Posted by Kelly Burke on Jun 9, 2015 3:05:31 PM

Line charts depicting the stock market scattered on a table

The EIA released its Short Term Energy Outlook today with its projections for both Crude prices and US Crude Oil production through 2016. It also projects where we will be on retail gasoline, natural gas storage, and electricity for 2015 & 2016.

In a nutshell, the outlook is as follows:

  • Brent is expected to average $61/bbl for 2015 and $67/bbl in 2016. The prior projected price for Brent in 2016 was $70/bbl
  • WTI is also forecast to drop about $3 dollars from the prior projection level for 2016. It forecasts WTI for 2015 to be up about a dollar higher than prior projections (up to $55.35/bbl)
  • Crude production is expected to dwindle slightly through early 2016, but the total projected volumes were revised up slightly - the new projected numbers are 9.4mmbpd in 2015 and 9.3mmbpd in 2016
  • Natural gas injections are expected to continue to climbing over their historic highs through 2016.
  • Retail gasoline is expected to decline slightly through the end of the year, backing off its current yearly high. 
  • Additionally, for consumers, the EIA is projecting an almost 5% increase in electricity bills for this summer season.

Other mentions of note, Brent saw its highest monthly average of 2015 in May, a $5 jump over its April average price. Retail gasoline also hit its high for the year in May. All of this despite inventory builds and OPEC production levels remaining at highs. 

The EIA Inventory Report publishes tommorow morning, we'll have to see how that impacts the NYMEX. Hopefully its an easier day than today, where we saw ULSD jump up .0631 to settle at 1.9179, and RBOB jumped .0696 to 2.0771 at the close. 

Stay tuned!

 

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Topics: natural gas, EIA, Brent Crude, WTI Crude, retail gasoline, US Crude Production

NYMEX See-Saws on Inventories and Profit Taking

Posted by Kelly Burke on May 22, 2015 12:43:10 PM

Line charts depicting the stock market scattered on a table

 

We enjoyed a little easing on NYMEX pricing for the beginning of this week, with a Goldmann Sachs prediction that oil prices could drop to $45/bbl. Additionally, it was reported that Saudi production for March hit 10.3mmb/day, a new record for them, which kept the market bearish.

That is, until the domestic inventory speculation talk started.

The API report for last weeks inventories predicted a 5.2mmb drop on Crude, and a 1.2mmb drop in gasoline supplies, and that, combined with the actual EIA reported draws pushed up the market. 

Wednesdays EIA report showed actual drops of 2.67mmb on Crude, and a 2.8mmb drop on gasoline. Consequently, as we saw, the market jumped up.

Crude and ULSD backed off Wednesday's intraday highs with ULSD closing up .0168 to 1.946, but RBOB settled out up .0461 to 2.0411. Yesterday the trend continued, with ULSD jumping up .0399 and RBOB closing up .0413 to 2.0824. 

Today the NYMEX has backed off, by noon ULSD was trending down -.0354, with RBOB following suit at -.0396 on profit taking from the weeks earlier gains. 

A bright spot for Memorial Day Weekend - retail gas prices are at their lowest in 6 years. Have a great long weekend, everyone!

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Topics: Goldman Sachs, EIA Inventories, retail gasoline

Retail & Market Prices Drop on Crude Supply & Pricing

Posted by Kelly Burke on Oct 8, 2014 1:44:23 PM

Fuel pump filling up a commuter car

EIA weekly petroleum report showed inventory gains across the board.

Analysts had expected much smaller builds in CRUDE than the actuals, and had anticipated drops in both gasoline and distillate inventories - neither of which came to fruition. (Who are these "analysts" anyways - not even CLOSE, guys!)

  • CRUDE: inventories jumped 5 million barrels. (Expectation was a build of 1.9 million barrels)
  • Gasoline: inventories jumped 1.2 million barrels, while the EIA showed a drop in consumption of 1.3%. (Analysts had anticipated a 900K barrel drop)
  • Distillates: inventories were up 400K barrels. Both production and consumption levels dropped for distillates. (Analysts had antipated a 1.2 million barrel drop) 

Retail gasoline prices in the US have been trending downward big time, spurred on by the drop in CRUDE prices, as well as weakening demand. The reported average for last week was 3.41/gal in September which is almost 30 cents below the average price 4 months ago. AAA is reporting that the current average gasoline price is $3.267 - a little over 8 cents a gallon cheaper than this time last year. 

Lower global demand, high supply, and a bleak global economic outlook (we're looking at you Europe) dropped Brent Crude to lows we havent seen in years - September was the first time Brent traded under $100/bbl in 2 years, and last week saw Brent hit $92, close to a 27 month low.

WTI is trading down as well, having broken through several resistance levels, and hit $86.20 after the EIA report hit this morning. (At the moment its -1.53 to 87.32 on the electronics)   

The NYMEX is trending down today again, currently ULSD is down over 3 cents (-.0326 to 2.5747) and RBOB is down over 4. (-.0466 to 2.3217)

Stay Tuned!

 

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Topics: European Economy, Brent Crude, Gasoline demand drop, CRUDE, WTI Crude, EIA Inventories, retail gasoline

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