NYMEX Collapses as Last Weeks Gains Erased

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Sep 17, 2012 5:45:00 PM

What a difference a week makes! Last Monday we were gearing up for a strong week ahead of QE3. Today saw the entire weeks gains in the Heating Oil pit get erased, finishing slightly below last Mondays close down .0761 to $3.1634. That is after the pit pulled back some even more robust losses that at about 1:30 had HO down .12 and RBOB down just over .11 cents. We said the 3.25 level on prompt month HO was a pretty strong resistance area and today's OCT HO high just happened to be 3.2500. Technical- schmechnical, it appears as though rumors abound that there was an SPR release of gallons happening. To which is still do not fully understand, if the Government has to maintain required levels in the SPR, are they not just selling high and replacing at a lower price later? To be clear on QE3, of which the Fed is buying back some $4 billion in mortgage backed securities, this had and still has the potential to be bullish for commodities should the dollar fall. But lets live for today and be happy the market fell today. Crude finished down $2.38 to $96.62 and RBOB lost .0723 to 2.9433.

Daily Heat Chart

heat chart

RBOB CLOSE
CLOSE CHANGE
 
OCT 29433 -.0723
NOV 28596 -.0719
DEC 28050 -.0712
JAN 27798 -.0714
FEB 27965 -.0710
MAR 27868 -.0706
HEAT CLOSE
CLOSE CHANGE
OCT 31634 -.0761
NOV 31644 -.0741
DEC 31633 -.0718
JAN 31594 -.0694
FEB 31472 -.0671
MAR 31259 -.0646
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Topics: Commodities, QE3, SPR Gallon Release

Futures Move Higher as Stimulus Plan Takes Shape

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Sep 10, 2012 3:52:00 PM

While much of todays chatter centered around the wild cash blowout of gasoline on Friday, up some .24 in NY harbor, markets found a way to turn positive ahead of the close. Many are betting that a new round of Quantitative Easing, also known as QE3, will be announced after this weeks FED meeting. This bet was doubled down after Fridays disappointing payroll figures.While the stimulus plans are designed to boost economic activity, Commodity prices are often collateral damage and many agree that we might see higher prices with this round. Keeping the pits in check are the fundamentals which, even besides this weekends short term blowout, the nation is well supplied. Additionally there was a memo sent by the Saudi Oil Minister confirming the oversupply of product as well as the unsubstantiated value of the current marketplace. Look for the remainder of the week to be a wild one. At the Close, Crude finished up .12 to $96.54, HEAT gained .0179 to $3.1668 and RBOB .0044 to $3.0240

 

Daily Heating Oil Chart

Heat map

RBOB CLOSE
CLOSE CHANGE
 
OCT 30240 +.0044
NOV 29051 +.0059
DEC 28304 +.0059
JAN 28013 +.0054
FEB 27965 +.0058
MAR 28059 +.0059
HEAT CLOSE
CLOSE CHANGE
OCT 31668 +.0179
NOV 31674 +.0167
DEC 31666 +.0167
JAN 31639 +.0173
FEB 31524 +.0186
MAR 31322 +.0192
Read More

Topics: CRUDE, RBOB, QE3, Basis Blowout, Saudi Oil Minister

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