Futures shed value, outpaced by Crude

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jul 11, 2011 6:14:00 PM

Crude values have tumbled over the last two sessions outpacing the products which has many Americans wondering why.  Crude fell another $1.05 today to close at $95.15 while HEAT managed to lose only 89pts to $3.0875 and RBOB dropped .0221 to $3.0705. HEAT actually traded positive briefly with about 20 minutes lef tin the session.  The complex as a whole opened up with strong losses across the board as China released reports that inflation has hit a 3 year high, while seeing Crude imports drop 6%, thus sending the dollar higher.  As Friday's news lingered this morning of a mere 18k jobs being added last month, the lowest in over 9 months, and the apparent stalemate with the debt reduction resolutions, many were taking profits.  Should be of no surprise that many market managers added length in the last week according to the most recent CFTC report.  The common theme is that once again we are in an overbought market with a very wide range.  That range for HEAT has been from 2.80 to 3.35.  The complex has been unwilling to breakout in either direction, primarily based on fear of the unknown.  Once again, an event will need to happen to have it break through the high or fall below the low.   
heat chart
RBOB CLOSE
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
  
AUG     30705       -.0221
SEP    30249     -.0282
OCT    28915      -.0310
NOV    28561       -.0321
DEC     28446      -.0297
JAN    28506      -.0269
HEAT CLOSE
          CLOSE    CHANGE
AUG    30875       -.0089
SEP    30982      -.0099
OCT    31106     -.0111
NOV   31262     -.0119
DEC   31416     -.0129
JAN   31560      -.0141
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Topics: Jobless numbers, CRUDE

Futures Continue to Rebound on Two Week Rally

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jun 9, 2011 9:04:00 AM

If you were to ask me two weeks ago if I thought the HEAT pit would rebound 30 cents after falling 45, I would say its about as likely as a tornado in Massachusetts....  And so here we are!   With what has been an almost two week rally, todays moves looked to be a reaction to the indecisiveness of OPEC.  For that last few years, OPEC has lost much of their mojo and most discounted their pumping policies and mandates as rhetoric.  As with any slow news day, people needed something to jump onto and the report that OPEC was doing nothing had bulls run the table.  That coupled with the DOE report of Crude having a 4.8mbl draw simple let the gates open for a decisively higher session.  Jobless claims increase slightly last week still signaling a troubled economy.  Even the Natgas report that showed an unexpected injection of 80bcf could not derail the upside.  While many see the last several sessions as technical buy backs, it is difficult to maintain the notion that better days are to come as we pop 3 or 4 cents higher everyday.  At the close, Crude maintained above $100 and settled up $1.19 to $101.93, HEAT rose .0441 to $3.1378 and RBOB jumped .0611 to $3.0398.

heat chart

RBOB CLOSE
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
  
JUL     30398       +.0611
AUG    30217      +.0563
SEP    30079      +.0527
OCT    28922       +.0445
NOV     28701       +.0423
DEC    28887      +.0405
HEAT CLOSE
          CLOSE    CHANGE
JUL    31578       +.0441
AUG    31508      +.0427
SEP    31677     +.0412
OCT   31843      +.0400
NOV   32015       +.0401
DEC   32167       +.0397
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Topics: Jobless numbers, OPEC

Jobs data, Inventories and Dollar lead to mix day

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Apr 21, 2011 3:43:00 PM

Another mixed end to another volitile session that saw both RBOB and HEAT finish on opposite sides of par.  Solid early morning gains built on Wednesdays DOE report that had all products reporting substantial draws, much higher than expectations, eventually gave way to news of yet another dismal Job report.  The number of Jobless claims missed analysts expectations by about 10,000 claims that sent the pits down at the Opening Bell.   Heat and RBOB were down almost .04 each as Crude remained strong on a falling dollar.  The Dollar continues to  hover around a 2 1/2 year low.  While strife continues abroad, the threat of barrels off the market appears to be taking a back seat.  The Saudi cartel have stated that there is no need for excess production as buyers appear to be limited.  As we mentioned, the volitility from day to day has remained with a downward bias.  The hope amongst peers is that at somepoint it falls off the shelf.  As a reminder, the NYMEX is closed Friday in observance of Good Friday.  At the Close Crude added 81 cents to $112.29, RBOB jumped .0313 to $3.3086 and HEAT fell .0222 to $3.1992.

DAILY HEATING OIL CHART

chart

 

RBOB CLOSE
                 CLOSE       CHANGE MAY    33086       +.0313
JUN    32723       +.0239
JUL    32425        +.0186
AUG    32141       +.0144
SEP     31848       +.0124
OCT    30337        +.0108
HEAT CLOSE
          CLOSE    CHANGE
MAY    31992       -.0222
JUN    32162       -.0197
JUL    32352       -.0181
AUG    32535        -.0169
SEP    32711       -.0157
OCT    32880        -.0150
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Topics: Dollar falls, Jobless numbers

NYMEX rises on jobs and overseas risk

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Apr 4, 2011 12:55:00 PM

RBOB spent much of the day bouncing back and forth from positive to negative before finally ending stronger.   Heating Oil never broke negative but did tease with it about mid day.  Depending upon which news wire you read, Libyan rebelshave either lost control of a major oil port city or regained full control.  The lack of credible reports coming from the crisis is playing into the risk premium.   New data was released this morning that shouwed the economy grew by 3.1% in Q4, slightly above the expected 3.0%.  Also psuhing values higer was data showing the economy created an addtional 31k jobs in the last month.  How much of that is seasonal workers is yet to be determined.  The rosey view and geopolitical risk that continues to spread over northern Africa and the Mid East has pushed HO above the $3.14 level, closing up .0369 to $3.1714.  RBOB moved higher by .0175 to close at $3.1688.  Crude reached an 18 month high before closing up .53 to $108.47.  We had said that the market appears to fade after HEAT touched $3.14, the breakthrough of that resistance level today lends to higher prices in the future. 

Daily HEAT Chart:
heat chart
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Topics: Jobless numbers, Libya, Daily Heating Chart

Sell off fails to materialize, prices dip

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Dec 6, 2010 9:54:00 PM

While I was watching FED Chairman on 60 minutes last night it occurred to me very early in the interview: Bernanke was very, very nervous.  Something I have never seen before, even in the midst of the crisis.  Furthermore, comments made about how our Nation’s economy was still “struggling to sustain itself”  appeared to rattle overnight investors.  Early session buyers flooded the market.  Yet in typical fashion, HEAT pits were unable to cross the $2.50 level which has held as the yearly high.  Keeping some pressure on HEAT was also the regions first shot of cold and wintery weather.  Both Maine and Southern Connecticut got hit along with areas in Eastern NY.  You won’t find many in our industry cursing the weather as it has been long over due.  Still many are keeping watchful eyes on their thermostats and purse strings as the recent Jobs report solidified a somewhat HO-HUM near term picture that our economy is not out of the woods yet.  $3 retail gasoline is not helping anyone out to boot!  At the close, Crude edge slightly higher to $89.38 gaining .19, RBOB lost .0104 to $2.3417 and HEAT fell .0117 to $2.4757.

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Topics: Bernanke, Jobless numbers, HEAT, RBOB

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