Wild May Ends in Wild Fashion with HEAT retracement

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on May 31, 2012 5:23:00 PM

Lets take a minute to put this month into perspective as we all recognize our short memories. On May 1, HO opened at 3.1783. Todays close of 2.7062 is an astounding .4721 cent retracement. For several weeks we spoke of a fall to the 2.75 level on prompt month Heat, and it has become a reality. With the majority of talk centered around the ongoing European crisis, today saw more length shed from Commodities on the heels of continued growing Crude stocks and some uninspiring job data. The delayed DOE report showed Crude adding 2.2mbbls against an expected build of 800k, yet gasolines fell 832k and a rather bullish distillate draw of 1.7mbbls, verses expectations of +200k and +500k respectively. Traders apparently feel that Crude levels are so robust, it far outweighs and week to week changes in refined products. Secondly, ADP's monthly report on new job growth fell short of expectations as it showed 133k unit gain. Support that figure was new jobless claims rose by roughly 10,000 this past month. All in all, the market continues to search for a bottom as the US dollar gains strength and length is pulled from Commodities. At the close, Crude fell 1.29 to $86.53, RBOB lost .0332 to $2.8250 and HEAT slipped another .0336 to $2.7062

Daily Heating Oil Chart

Heat map

RBOB CLOSE
CLOSE CHANGE
 
JUN 28250 -.0332
JUL 27227 -.0512
AUG 26676 -.0477
SEPT 26244 -.0444
OCT 24770 -.0430
NOV 24442 -.0408
HEAT CLOSE
CLOSE CHANGE
JUN 27062 -.0336
JUL 27032 -.0406
AUG 27130 -.0403
SEPT 27249 -.0394
OCT 27375 -.0385
NOV 27507 -.0380
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Topics: Jobless claims rise, HEAT, CRUDE

Morning Losses Erased with Jobs News

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Apr 26, 2012 5:50:00 PM

For the second day in a row, early session losses were erased with strong closes. Todays bullish action came on the heals of a surprise increase in jobless claims and some cautiously upbeat comments the Federal Reserve. Commenting on the role of the Fed, Bernanke said ultra low rates would remain in effect through 2014 and did not rule out additional measures to pump up the economic situation. Commodities are the collateral damage of such news as the dollar again took a hit and caused the pits to show strong gains as the day wore on. Crude settled at $104.55 up .43, RBOB added .0276 to close at $3.1833 and HO took the lead gaining .0333 to $3.1944. Heat has come back with vengeance after touching 3.09 on the prompt month just over a week ago. There is fair amount of commentary out there that we should see substantially lower numbers in the coming sessions. Support for HO looks to be at the 3.15, then a 3.05 level.

Daily Heating Oil Chart

Heat map

RBOB CLOSE
CLOSE CHANGE
 
MAY 31833 +.0276
JUN 31328 +.0137
JUL 30852 +.0066
AUG 30435 +.0028
SEPT 30043 +.0004
OCT 28602 -.0006
HEAT CLOSE
CLOSE CHANGE
MAY 31944 +.0333
JUN 31984 +.0315
JUL 31982 +.0292
AUG 31985 +.0269
SEPT 32006 +.0259
OCT 32038 +.0245
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Topics: Commodities, Jobless claims rise, Jobless numbers, CRUDE

NYMEX dips ahead of Presidential Speech, DOE's Mixed

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Sep 8, 2011 9:24:00 PM

Although the market finished down, it was not until very late in the session that we felt somewhat comfortable that it was a certainty.  Early morning jobs data reported yet another increase in unemployment claims, up 2k to 414k, Commodities fought their way back into positive ground as investors rushed for a safe haven.  The new information will be a key tenet for tonights Presidential address on the state of the economy, which could shift the markets in either direction.  The White House is expected to announce yet another round of stimulus spending, roughly $300 billion, on infrastructure and tax cuts.  Additionally, reports of the European Central Bank reporting what they perceive as "significant downside risk" to the European Economy.  With the mixed DOE report of Crude losing 4mbl and Gas and Distillates adding 198k and 708k respectively, while surprising , kept any major losses in check.  I would expect next weeks numbers to have the full impact of the past weeks weather, specifically in the Northeast.  It has become increasingly more difficult to determine how news will be perceived in the eyes of  market participants, what was once a bullish news day has now turned to a cautiously bearish one.  At the close, Crude slipped .29 to $89.05, RBOB lost .0228 to $2.8852 and HEAT lost .0313 to $3.0443.

heat map

RBOB CLOSE
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
  
OCT    28852       -.0228
NOV    28351      -.0255
DEC    28044      -.0273
JAN   27976        -.0290
FEB    28020        -.0296
MAR    28099      -.0297
HEAT CLOSE
          CLOSE    CHANGE
OCT    30443    -.0313
NOV   30526     -.0330
DEC   30603      -.0344
JAN   30689     -.0358
FEB   30646      -.0363
MAR   30515      -.0363
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Topics: European Economy, President Obama Address, Jobless claims rise

Futures Tumble as length is shed with Jobs Data

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on May 5, 2011 3:28:00 PM

As the saying goes " we buy in fear and sell in greed", today appears to be the perfect example of that old one.  Coming off the first three day sell off in over six months, the NYMEX was poised for a correction.  A new term put to the days action in the pits, a "flash crash" .  With all three major pits teetering on key support levels at the open, the technical sell off ensued as new unemployment figures were released that showed claims up by roughly 43k more than most estimates.  That, coupled with yesterdays slightly bearish inventory numbers, many sought to exit positions put on several weeks ago.  Again, it appears that we did find the event that would cause a correction, the key now is how much length is left and where will Bulls find a buying opportunity.  The last point to be made for a continued sell off will be to determine how demand will stand up with retail gasoline breaking $4.00 a gallon across most of the country.  From all indications, or today at least, demand destruction is weighing heavily on the minds of investors.  At the Close, Crude tumbled $9.40 to settle below $100 for the first time in weeks at $99.80.  RBOB lost a staggering .2271 to close at $3.0954 and HEAT led the charge with a whopping loss of .2561 to $2.8869. 

 
Daily Heating Oil Chart
heat chart
RBOB CLOSE
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
  
JUN    30954       -.2271
JUL    30228       -.2352
AUG    29686        -.2391
SEP    29256       -.2403
OCT     27624       -.2410
NOV    27244      -.2409
HEAT CLOSE
          CLOSE    CHANGE
JUN    28869      -.2561
JUL    29020      -.2561
AUG    29169      -.2564
SEP     29345      -.2562
OCT    29513       -.2558
NOV   29676       -.2557

 

The information contained in this report has been taken from trade and statistical services and sources believed to be reliable. Dennis K. Burke, Inc. makes no representations or warranties with respect to the content of such news, including, without limitation, its accuracy and completeness. This bulletin is provided for informational purposes only, and is not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell commodities.
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Topics: Jobless claims rise, CRUDE falls, Flash Crash

NYMEX continues to slip on Jobless Report Numbers

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on May 20, 2010 8:34:00 PM

The last three days has left me feeling the same way I do after watching an episode of “LOST”…. What the hell just happened??? Values have plummeted on European financial fears, Greenback gains and as Hedge funds dumped length at every turn. Todays fall was accelerated as a Jobless report showed an unexpected climb in claims, but a glimmer of hope for Bulls appeared as the market put their rally hats on and fought off an 8 cent decline in the HEAT pit and closed down only .0433 to $1.9019. RBOB lost .0507 to $1.9645 and Crude dropped $1.86 to $68.01. As we mentioned a while back, we saw a major resistance level at the $2.05 level, as that was broke earlier in the week, the technical selling pushed values all the way down to the 100% retracement level of $1.85, to which we touched today. That level held and the bounce off looks to define the pre season low. But we said that about $2.05. Long and short of it the near 50 cent drop in values has given many a second bite of the apple. As shown below, the play in early FEB was a home run for 3 months, we could be in that cycle.

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Topics: Jobless claims rise, The Market

Market continues to tumble into close post Citi fiasco

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on May 7, 2010 8:29:00 PM

After yesterdays amazing post close circus, today started out rather mild. For those of you who didn’t hear, a fat finger mistake by a former Citi trader… (as of 3:05pm yesterday he is a former employee) who put a trade in for several billion rather than million shares, sent the market into near collapse in minutes. Heat went from -.0705 to -.1250 in about 4 minutes. As things resolved themselves and world indices came back to reality, some of the fear carried over into todays session. The mere conjecture that $40 stocks can go to $0 in minutes had some traders getting out of Dodge and booking profits. While the panic does not suggest that markets can collapse instantly, it does point to the fact that there are a lot of stop limits out there in all markets which suggest a continued overbought mentality. With the jobless report showing employers adding jobs but the jobless rate grew to 9.9% (don’t ask, I’m just as confused) that held prices down for the remainder of the day. Heat still was able to bounce off the 61% retracement as it did during the panic sell off yesterday, so that 2.05 area looks tough to break. With the daily chart the last few weeks looking much like my recent EKG, its impossible to tell where we are headed in the near term. What we can say is that this was a much needed correction and a fourth down day should confirm a new trend. At the close, Crude fell $2.00 to $75.11, RBOB lost .0312 to $2.1251 and HEAT slipped .0342 to $2.0795

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Topics: Jobless claims rise, The Market, Profit taking

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