Weak Jobs push Markets south, destroy extended rally

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jun 4, 2010 9:24:00 PM

The sideways action continues as a healthy correction has once again seen buyers run for the hills. On the heels of healthy construction spending and new home sales, and some bullish inventory numbers, the Jobs data that was released today wiped away any chance of an extended rally. Most were expecting healthy increases in jobs but once the census workers were removed from the data, jobs actually were flat, setting off a firestorm of selling in all markets. The Dow was down over 300pts and the Euro continues to get hammered against the greenback. Short term, the prompt HEAT contract in the $1.85 to $1.95 range looks still to be defining the 5 to 7 o’clock hour on the clock. Anywhere in this range appears to bring out the buyers. Longer out is going to heavily depend on demand and when OPEC feels the need to jump in. At the Close, HEAT fell .0814 to $1.9577, RBOB lost .0859 to $1.9953 and Crude lost $3.10 to $71.51. The prevention of the magical third up day has most assuming the sideways action or range bound trading will continue.

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Topics: Weak Jobs Report, HEAT, The Market, OPEC

Futures shrug off DOE’s, end higher

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on May 26, 2010 8:39:00 PM

In what appears to be an about face to recent trends, the Pits reacted strongly overnight to yesterdays API report that showed Gasoline taking a whopping 3.2mbl hit. That message was contradicted this morning with the official DOE report that showed Crude build by 2.4mbl, Gasoline fall by only 200k bls and distillates draw by 267k barrels. The rather bearish report, when compared to estimates that had Crude only adding 250k barrels, was pushed aside as value seekers jumped on an already fast moving train. So much so that right after the report was released, again this is bearish news, the markets jumped higher. The length that was shed over the last few weeks appears to be burning a whole in the pockets of the funds. Or they could simply see this as buying opportunity as they did in late January. Again with Front month HEAT touching, but not breaking that 100% retracement level, expect to see sideways action until the next round of economic news is released. Many will focus on the Far East and their economic health as well as the tie to the dollar. At the close, Crude vaulted $2.76 to $71.51, RBOB rose .0396 to $1.9704 and HEAT gained .0490 to $1.9207.

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Topics: DOE, HEAT, CRUDE, The Market, API report

Futures edge higher off lows, products expected to build

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on May 11, 2010 8:30:00 PM

As the morning began, we looked to head towards a session that was going to continue the downward slide after a brief bounce on Monday. That all changed as the opening bell rang and what was a negative market turned positive. HEAT bounced off the 50% retracement level and never looked back. With news relatively mild today as the country braces towards Wednesdays DOE report, all expectations are for the products to build by 1 mbl. The rig disaster in the gulf should not have a major effect on supply, yet should inventories come in lower than expected; it will be pointed to as the primary cause. HEAT appears to be range bound for the time being as last weeks big fall as many heads still spinning. It’s natural to see some buy back. As little as we want to put stock in the charts, as shown below, that 2.05 level held and the 2.10 level held today. But, “turn it upside down and it will say the same thing”. We could see a short term range defined with the inventory report on Wednesday. At the Close, Crude fell .43 to $76.37, RBOB added .0226 to $2.1952 and HEAT rose .0199 to $2.1401.

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Topics: DOE, HEAT, The Market

Fear, Greece, DOE send market south

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on May 5, 2010 8:26:00 PM

While I thought we were in for a correction, I wouldn’t have thought in a million years that we would see 20 cents in gas and 15 cents in HEAT get wiped away in two sessions. Playing in on the days action was the continued fear that the European Union is in a whole bunch of trouble with the Greece bailout plan. Not only that, but Spain and Portugal appear to be next in line. That pushed the dollar higher and the selling tsunami hit at the opening bell as the shift from optimism to fear hit investors in their jugular, their wallet. On the Inventory front, while bearish, for the most part were in line with expectations. Crude stocks grew by 2.75mbl vs estimates of +1.0. Gasolines added 1.25mbl vs estimates of 1.0 and Distillates posted increases of 575k barrels, much less than the 2.0mbl expected. The issue in the Gulf, may not rear its head for a few weeks on the inventory front. Be weary though, looking at the chart below, we can see the pattern of two weeks ago where we anticipated a continued correction before jumping 15 cents in two weeks, noting HEAT stopped dead in its tracks hitting the 38% retracement level and actually put the rally hat on mid day and was only down about 3 cents before slipping into the close finishing -.0750 to $2.1845. RBOB tumbled again falling .1018 to $2.2204 and Crude lost $2.77 finishing below $80 to $79.97. Look for a third down day to confirm a prolonged trend reversal.

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Topics: Greece Bailout, DOE, HEAT, The Market

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