Futures Continue to Rebound After Early Week Sell Off

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Sep 26, 2013 5:00:00 PM

Front month Heat continues to find comfort above the 2.95 level as traders weigh the recent barrage of news.  Earlier in the week, many feared an almost inevitable Government shutdown, but those fears were erased late Wednesday as a House Bill passed that would fund activities for the next several weeks.  While Inventories were in my opinion somewhat Bearish, the news didn't take so well yesterday and pushed futures up slightly ahead of today's report that showed the US economic growth rate fell in line with expectations with an increase of 2.5%.  Additionally, new applications for unemployment benefits fell by roughly 5000 to 305,000.  The Bullish overtures of a growing economy almost always will spur a rise in Commodity futures.  The Syrian problem continues to drag on in a political stalemate as Russia successfully blocked a UN resolution which would have authorized military strikes.    While news may be what most are pointing to as the driver, one must give the technical analyst his due.  The Failure of front month HO to settle below the 2.95 mark has spurred buying over  the last two sessions.  This level continues to be a huge support area.  At the Close, Crude gained .37 to $103.03, RBOB added .0321 to $2.7050 and HO settles up .0306 to $3.0037

RBOB Close
                      CLOSE     CHANGE            
OCT   2.7050        +.0321
NOV   2.6887        +.0318
DEC   2.6647        +.0286
JAN    2.6557       +.0276
FEB     2.6583      + .0272
              MAR    2.6675      +.0269                 
HEAT Close
      CLOSE            CHANGE
OCT  3.0037        +.0306
NOV   2.9993      +.0280
    DEC     2.9930    +.0272     
JAN     2.9885     +.0265
FEB    2.9824    +.0251
MAR  2.9689     +.0234


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Topics: unemployment benefits fall, Futures, government shutdown, Syria

Crude Rises as Products Fade in Late Sell Off

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jul 21, 2011 9:03:00 PM

Crude once again danced above the $100 a barrel mark today as many speculated that the economy is showing signs of improving.  Furthermore a marathon meeting session on Greece of European Leaders ended with a consensus that they will throw more money into the debt strapped country.  The Euro rose on the news as the dollar fell, thus pushing money into Crude.  The products failed to follow the rally.  RBOB slipped .0475 to $3.0995 while HEAT lost .0192 to $3.0992.  All while Crude managed to gain .73 to close at $99.13, more than a full buck off its high of $100.16.  Holding down products appear to be the fact that demand is still soft, and retail gas stations are still in the high $3 range.  Additionally, our friends at the IEA stated that they are willing to release more product to the market to stave off any spike in futures.  HEAT remains in a congested selling pattern and looking back over the last few months, you have seen healthy corrections after these periods.  In laymen terms, nobody is willing to make a move either way until an event pushes us too.  This event will likely be in the form of how the US debt ceiling issue is resolved, meaning we probably have another week of sloppy back and forth days

heat chart

RBOB CLOSE
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
  
AUG    30995       -.0475
SEP    30567      -.0379
OCT    29285     -.0277
NOV   28959       -.0235
DEC    28801       -.0215
JAN    28832      -.0200
HEAT CLOSE
          CLOSE    CHANGE
AUG  30992     -.0192
SEP   31129       -.0191
OCT    31273      -.0188
NOV   31437       -.0191
DEC   31600       -.0191
JAN   31753       -.0190
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Topics: Greece Bailout, Dollar falls, government shutdown, CRUDE

Market Finally Falls after Calm Weekend

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Apr 11, 2011 9:58:00 AM

Futures tumbled today after seeing double digit increases in the HEAT pit on Friday as fear of prolonged unrest overseas and the possibilty of a Governmental shut down loomed.  At the eleventh hour a deal was struck to keep the U.S. Government running with both sides claiming victory.  New reports this morning had Libya tension cooling as a proposed peace deal is on the table.  The problem is, the deal calls for Gadhafi to remain in power.  As one would expect, the deal has been accepted by the current regime but rejected by rebel forces.  It was somewhat relieving to see our first down day in the last nine sessions.  We are all looking for a healthy correction of the speculative buying that has pushed HEAT higher by almost 20 cents in the last 10 days.  With warm air finally making its way into the Northeast, we should see some length get pulled out of the HEAT pit.  At the Close, CRUDE fell $2.87 to $109.92, RBOB lost .0602 to $3.2005 and HEAT tumbled .0672 to $3.2525.  As we have said many times, one day does not make a trend, but it would be nice if this was the start. 

 
Daily Heat Chart
heat map
RBOB CLOSE
                 CLOSE       CHANGE MAY    32005       -.0602
JUN    31867        -.0595
JUL    31741        -.0590
AUG    31562       -.0589
SEP     31305        -.0597
OCT    29909        -.0625
HEAT CLOSE
          CLOSE    CHANGE
MAY    32525       -.0672
JUN    32647       -.0645
JUL    32784       -.0620
AUG    32931        -.0591
SEP    33085       -.0571
OCT    33230        -.0556
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Topics: HEAT, government shutdown, Libya, Market analysis

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