NYMEX Remains Volatile with Ghadaffi Death

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Oct 20, 2011 8:34:00 PM

With an early morning report of the death of the former Libyan dictator, I would have bet the house that it would be received as bearish news. As the morning started off up strong in both pits, the slow chipping away at values as many digested what this really meant to oil markets. Two distinct camps once again. One side believes Libyan oil, about 1mb per day capacity, will now find its way into friendlier markets, pushing values down. The other warns against an ongoing struggle within the Country as a vacuum occurs and a new regime comes into power. Sometimes the devil you know is better than the devil you don't. With Barclays reporting today that the death, while important, will do little to the "underlying dynamics" of the situation. That is, roughly 50% of the countries production is for domestic use. The Bulls won on the day in similar fashion as the Bears won yesterday, a late rally with less than an hour left tin the session. RBOB was down over .07 at one point to finish up .0040 to close at $2.6755, HEAT added .0489 to $3.0301 (some .06 off the days low). Yet again, WTI shed gains while its stepchildren added, finishing down .81 to $85.30. HEAT still is at the top end of the range as the chart below shows, many are convinced we will continue the cycle and see a sixth attempt at the 2.70 level.
heat chart
RBOB CLOSE
CLOSE CHANGE
 
NOV 26755 +.0040
DEC 26570 +.0121
JAN 26466 +.0168
FEB 26415 +.0175
MAR 26424 +.0169
APR 27606 +.0180
HEAT CLOSE
CLOSE CHANGE
NOV 30301 +.0489
DEC 30266 +.0466
JAN 30130 +.0418
FEB 29925 +.0382
MAR 29641 +.0354
APR 29203 +.0335
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Topics: Ghaddafi Dies, Ghaddafi

Markets Jump Higher After Long Weekend

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on May 31, 2011 5:32:00 PM

What a difference a week makes!  less than a week ago were were talking about HEAT testing some key support levels, but after today, those might be to far to see in the rear view mirror.  The pits have jumped some 20 cents in the last five sessions.  While yesterdays electronic trading seemed to bear some positive tones as most of the session was down almost 2 cents, waking up this morning saw the market up over 4 and Crude up over a dollar.  The second round of bailout money for Greece appears to be in the works as Germany is conceding. Over the weekend, a NATO commander stated his forces were making significant strides against the Gaddafi regime and guaranteed his removal in the next few months.  On the homefront, a pipeline leak in the Kansas City area that originates in Canada forced that line down for the second time in a week.  The key detail in that report is that the pipeline ends up in Cushing, Oklahoma, a key yardstick for National Inventory numbers.  The fear pushed values higher and stayed there the remainder of the day with Crude now healthily over $100 to close up $2.11 to $102.70, front month RBOB added .0584 to $3.1504, while JUL RBOB was up only .0190.  HEAT finished higher by .0658 to $3.0563, JUL HEAT added .0516 to $3.0530.   HEAT is currently at the top end of the recent range of 2.80 to 3.05,  one would expect to see some profit taking over the next couple of days.

heat chart

RBOB CLOSE
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
  
JUN    31504       +.0584
JUL    30503      +.0190
AUG    30186        +.0221
SEP    29903       +.0253
OCT     28612       +.0278
NOV    28311      +.0275
HEAT CLOSE
          CLOSE    CHANGE
JUN    30563       +.0658
JUL    30530      +.0516
AUG    30664      +.0511
SEP     30832      +.0506
OCT    30989       +.0503
NOV   31146       +.0500
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Topics: Kansas City Pipeline, Greece Bailout, Ghaddafi

Markets find strength ahead of Spring storm

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Mar 31, 2011 10:47:00 AM

With what appears to be a cruel joke by Mother Nature, sending us another 6 to 12 inches of snow for Friday, markets got the fuel they needed to push higher today.  While the winter weather may be a simple coincidence, the real driver today appears to the ongoing unrest in Libya.  After the President adressed the Nation Monday night, and all but assured us that NATO forces would take command and ground troops would not be committed, that plan is begining to look suspect.  Over the last few days, Rebel forces have made little if any ground against the Gaddafi regime.  Their reliance upon US and NATO air strikes to make any advances has put their chances of an overthrow in jeapordy.  This, even on the heels of a long time supporter of Gaddafi defecting.  Overnight the Lybian Foriegn Minister sought refuge, signaling to the West that the power appears to be fracturing.  However, with the President authorizing use of covert operations, many point to this as the first step in a drawn out conflict.  With Lybian product shut in, and Japaneese demand expected to pick up, we cant be all that surprised to see the bumps.  The key will be in how long it will take for the jump to be peeled off.  Speculative money appears in control for the time being and the slight drop in jobless claims is not facilitating a sell off by any means.  At the close, Crude rose $2.45 to $106.72, RBOB jumped .0436 to $$3.1076 and HEAT led the charge adding .0502 to $3.0898.
heat map
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Topics: HEAT, Libya, CRUDE, RBOB, Ghaddafi

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