Retail & Market Prices Drop on Crude Supply & Pricing

Posted by Kelly Burke on Oct 8, 2014 1:44:23 PM

Fuel pump filling up a commuter car

EIA weekly petroleum report showed inventory gains across the board.

Analysts had expected much smaller builds in CRUDE than the actuals, and had anticipated drops in both gasoline and distillate inventories - neither of which came to fruition. (Who are these "analysts" anyways - not even CLOSE, guys!)

  • CRUDE: inventories jumped 5 million barrels. (Expectation was a build of 1.9 million barrels)
  • Gasoline: inventories jumped 1.2 million barrels, while the EIA showed a drop in consumption of 1.3%. (Analysts had anticipated a 900K barrel drop)
  • Distillates: inventories were up 400K barrels. Both production and consumption levels dropped for distillates. (Analysts had antipated a 1.2 million barrel drop) 

Retail gasoline prices in the US have been trending downward big time, spurred on by the drop in CRUDE prices, as well as weakening demand. The reported average for last week was 3.41/gal in September which is almost 30 cents below the average price 4 months ago. AAA is reporting that the current average gasoline price is $3.267 - a little over 8 cents a gallon cheaper than this time last year. 

Lower global demand, high supply, and a bleak global economic outlook (we're looking at you Europe) dropped Brent Crude to lows we havent seen in years - September was the first time Brent traded under $100/bbl in 2 years, and last week saw Brent hit $92, close to a 27 month low.

WTI is trading down as well, having broken through several resistance levels, and hit $86.20 after the EIA report hit this morning. (At the moment its -1.53 to 87.32 on the electronics)   

The NYMEX is trending down today again, currently ULSD is down over 3 cents (-.0326 to 2.5747) and RBOB is down over 4. (-.0466 to 2.3217)

Stay Tuned!

 

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Topics: European Economy, Brent Crude, Gasoline demand drop, CRUDE, WTI Crude, EIA Inventories, retail gasoline

NYMEX puts on rally hats to end day positive

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on May 10, 2011 5:04:00 PM

We truly have moved to a market that is tick to tick.  We all recall the days when a .01 move in the market called for a meeting.  Today, right out of the gate RBOB was up .08 while HEAT limped along slower than Shaq last night and was negative most of the morning.  Early in the session for about 20 minutes, both pits tumbled with HEAT negative almost 4 cents.  Gasoline futures are spiking on concerns of Midwest flooding preventing shipments moving from key areas.  But with overall gasoline demand slipping last week and demand destruction appears to be settling in as retail pump prices hover around the $4 mark, todays jump seems somewhat nonsensical.  Imagine the gray hairs the station owners and gasoline end users have sprouted the last few sessions, from falling 20 cents one day to being up over 25 cents in the last two days!  With Wednesday comes another round of inventory numbers that are expected to show Crude levels build by 1mbls and products to show slight increases.  On another note, one which might have tempered todays gains, the NYMEX raised margin requirements making it more expensive for people to purchase futures, ultimately will have minimal effect on the course of business.  At the close, Crude added $1.33 to $103.88, HEAT found strength towards the close and gained .0394 to $3.0012 and RBOB led the charge jumping .1013 to $3.3797.

heat chart

RBOB CLOSE
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
  
JUN    33797       +.1013
JUL    32538       +.0894
AUG    31578        +.0776
SEP    30898       +.0662
OCT     29128       +.0610
NOV    28735      +.0605
HEAT CLOSE
          CLOSE    CHANGE
JUN    30012      +.0394
JUL    30145      +.0406
AUG    30280      +.0408
SEP     30437      +.0406
OCT    30590       +.0405
NOV   30746       +.0409
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Topics: Inventory report, Midwest Flooding, Gasoline demand drop

Futures End Down after Wild Session

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Apr 19, 2011 11:28:00 AM

NYMEX futures struggled to put together consecutive down days, and similar to the Bruins last night, it was a little tense right up to the end.  Futures opened down over 3 cents in both Pits and fell to as much as over five cents down before clawing all the way back, and actually trading positive briefly with about 40 minutes left in the day.  The days fall can be attributed to yesterdays news of Standard & Poors issuing a negative long term credit rating for the United States.  Highlighting that report was concern over the future of Commodity pricing and its effect on consumers.  Yet many are pointing to signals within the economy that could lead one to believe that we are well into a recovery.  Lets face it, last weeks DOE numbers were an aboration of refinery turns.  And as the pits turned stronger today, it centered around reports that gasoline demand jumped over 3% last week.  But that report is by spendingpulse.  Spendingpulse is a yardstick for usage of credit card customers.  Americans generally charge gasoline as a last resort to cash or debit. Thus the sell off continued.  At the close, front month Crude rose $1.03 on the expiry to $108.15. RBOB fel .0197 to $3.2331 and HEAT fell .0243 to $3.1585.  Keep in mind, we have not seen three consecutive down days since early FEB, and previously in early DEC.

 

heat chart

RBOB CLOSE
                 CLOSE       CHANGE MAY    32331       -.0197
JUN    31993        -.0191
JUL    31722       -.0161
AUG    31477       -.0131
SEP     31204       -.0085
OCT    29689        -.0087
HEAT CLOSE
          CLOSE    CHANGE
MAY    31585       -.0243
JUN    31725       -.0227
JUL    31895        -.0201
AUG    32062        -.0179
SEP    32226       -.0165
OCT    32391        -.0153
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Topics: Gasoline demand drop, DOE, S&P Downgrade

Gas falls, HEAT holds as cold air hits

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Dec 15, 2010 9:57:00 PM

After yesterday’s downright balmy weather in the northeast, today brought us back to reality with temps in the low teens.  That cold air was a key factor in keeping HEAT pits positive today while gasoline values fell.  Front month HEAT gained .0027 to close at $2.4679 while RBOB lost .0220 to $2.2964.  Crude is still unwilling to move from its current range and settled at $88.28, down 33 cents.  The market continues to search for direction as Inventories are expected to show a draw in Crude supplies and builds in gasolines and distillates.  With gasoline demand reported to have fallen over 2% in the last week, but again those are credit card transactions which can be misleading, some sought to shed length.  On the flip side, Personal spending rose pointing to a better economic picture for some as hit the heart of the buying season for most Americans.  Based on the HEAT chart below, we are due for breakout in either direction, which way remains to be seen.  Interesting to note that it has been over two months since we saw this type of range bound trading.

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Topics: Gasoline demand drop, HEAT, The Market

NYMEX slip as next move deliberated

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Apr 28, 2010 8:19:00 PM

In what was a slow news day had the futures market bouncing between positive and negative territory for much of the morning session. With durable good orders on the rise in March, some might put another feather in the hat of bulls. But the inability of the pits to stay above some key resistance areas, HEAT was unable to stay above $2.25 and Crude fell below $85, has to play into the minds of players that another correction can be in the cards. We have discussed a number of times over the last few weeks that the market is searching for direction and fundamentals do not support current price levels. With many personalities at the Atlantic Region Energy Expo the next few days, I wouldn’t expect any wild swings in the market. Furthermore, speaking with some retail operators over the last few days, gasoline demand appears to still limping along. At the end of the day, Crude slipped 92 cents to $84.02, RBOB fell .0122 to $2.3409 and HEAT dropped .0134 to $2.2371.

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Topics: AREE, Gasoline demand drop, The Market, NYMEX

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