Flat Demand and Gasoline draw push NYMEX

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Aug 17, 2011 5:12:00 AM

When the always suspect API's were released last night at around 4:30pm,  I couldn't contain myself when I saw the massive 5.2mbl draw announced for gasolines.  By in large, estimates were that we were only to expect a 1.2mbl draw down in stocks.  Obviously overnight markets reacted strongly to the pending news pumping up values almost .06 on all products ahead of the 10:30 announcement of today's DOE numbers.  And to much of my chagrin,  the inventory report confirmed the API gasoline read as a 3.5mbl draw was announced in gasolines.  Yet Crude showed a large 4.2mbl build vs estimates of a 500k draw and distillates grew by 2.5mbl while expectations were for only a 500k barrel increase.  While the draw in gas can be explained by a seasonal switch over, on relatively flat demand, it is difficult to explain away the builds in Crude and distillates.  Unfortunately the Market has a way of making its own reality and could never gather enough momentum to sell off hard enough to turn negative today.  Values still appear to be on the high end of the range as the HEAT low of 2.70 a few weeks ago may have been the seasonal low.  We have now added about 20 cents in value over the last five sessions.  At the close, WTI Crude rose .93 to $87.58, RBOB added .0165 to $2.8703 as outer months were about two cents stronger, and HEAT jumped .0290 to $2.9616.
heat map
RBOB CLOSE
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
  
SEP    28703       +.0165
OCT    27402      +.0386
NOV    27069      +.0409
DEC   26915       +.0411
JAN    26937       +.0407
FEB    27051      +.0400
HEAT CLOSE
          CLOSE    CHANGE
SEP    29616     +0290
OCT   29706      +.0285
NOV    29812      +.0284
DEC   29908     +.0281
JAN   30010       +.0281
FEB   29906       +.0280
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Topics: S&P Downgrade, Dollar Strengthens, Expected Draws in Crude and Gas

Storm fear fades, prompting sell off: Crude tumbles

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jun 29, 2010 9:40:00 PM

As quick as we saw the jump on Friday, we had thought that it was storm fear buying. And today brought vindication of those thoughts as I woke to a market down over 5 cents in both pits. As the opening bell rang, the buyers could not contain themselves prompting prices to claw back a few cents only to be weighed down by overriding fundamentals. The first named storm of the season is projected to miss most of the producing region in the Gulf and make landfall off US soil south of the tip of Texas. Product remains plentiful, even with expected draws in both Crude and gasolines this week while distillates are expected to show mild increases. As Wednesday’s expiry approaches, technical selling and booking profits for the quarter might push values down even further. At the close, Crude tumbled $2.31 to $75.94, RBOB lost .0656 to $2.0720 and JUL HEAT lost .0720 to $2.0213. The range appears to be widening some, but most are still unwilling to commit one way or the other.

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Topics: CRUDE falls, The Market, Expected Draws in Crude and Gas

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