EIA Data, Refinery Closures & International Tensions Spike NYMEX

Posted by Kelly Burke on Jun 26, 2019 3:07:45 PM

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The NYMEX is up big this afternoon in the wake of surprise draws in inventories, ongoing international issues, and the potential closure of the largest gasoline refinery on the East Coast. 

Inventories: Crude was projected to drop ~2.5mmb but EIA data showed a surprise drop of a whopping 12.79mmb for the week ending June 21.

Gasoline & Distillates were both expected to show builds, but gasoline drew down 1 mmb, and distillates dropped 2.44mmb (projections were for builds of 0.29mmb & 0.52mmb, respectively).

Crude jumped over 3% on the news, and refined products shot up as well. Gas has been up over 8 cents most of the day, with diesel up .04-.05. 

At the close, Crude settled at $59.38, ULSD jumped .0479 to $1.9713, and Gasoline was up .0932 to $1.9704

International Tensions The ongoing tension between the US & Iran continues to make markets nervous as we wait to see what the next steps may be after the abrupt calling off of air strikes last week in response to Iran shooting down an American drone. 

Continuing concern about the ongoing saga regarding US-China relations and the potential ramifications of proposed tarriffs on Chinese manufactured goods is also serving to keep markets on edge. 

The G20 Summit is slated for this week, and all eyes are on reported meetings to occur between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Saudi Crown Prince. The previously scheduled OPEC meeting for the end of this month has been postponed, purportedly in order to allow for Russia & Saudi Arabia to discuss the so called OPEC+ deal on production caps, and what the ongoing supply curbs under that deal may look like at the summit. 

Refinery Closures  In addition to inventory draw downs, the Philadelphia Refinery that suffered an explosion last week when a vat of butane ignited is reportedly seeking to shut down permanently. The site is the largest gasoline refinery on the East Coast, and the long term supply impacts of it's shuttering could be substantial.

Stay Tuned!

 

  

 

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Topics: Iran, East Coast Refineries, Refinery Closures, EIA Inventories, china

Futures Continue to Rise as Supply Questions Loom

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jan 29, 2013 3:41:00 PM

The NYMEX continued strong gains as most early risers thought we would see a reversal of yesterdays spike. At 5 am, RBOB was down almost .03 and HO was down about a penny. It had me thinking that yesterdays reaction to the Hess announcement that it was closing their New Jersey refinery was somewhat overdone. But as the rest of the world woke up, and saw the Dollar struggling, Futures made an about face at the open. While consumer confidence was reported to be at the lowest levels since late 2011 (maybe an effect of Americans seeing less in their checks this month), Home values were reported to see roughly a 5.5% increase in values year on year. Back to the notion of a gasoline shortage, with there being only two major refineries to serve the Eastcoast, it is easy to see how some can predict a long term crunch. My hunch is higher prices will solve that problem eventually. Still, HO has risen above the top end of the range we have been stuck in since October, closing up .0476 to 3.1092, RBOB added.0386 to 2.9734 and Crude gained $1.13 to $97.57. All ahead of the relatively tropical forecast for the next two days. (shown below)

Weather heat map of the USA

RBOB CLOSE
CLOSE CHANGE
 
FEB 29734 +.0386
MAR 29763 +.0354
APR 31242 +.0388
MAY 30961 +.0364
JUN 30469 +.0332
JUL 29971 +.0306
HEAT CLOSE
CLOSE CHANGE
FEB 31092 +.0476
MAR 30986 +.0443
APR 30806 +.0398
MAY 31151 +.0360
JUN 30961 +.0326
JUL 30856 +.0308
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Topics: Hess closes Refinery, Dollar Struggles, East Coast Refineries, Gasoline Supply Crunch

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