Futures Turn on Stimulus Talk

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on May 15, 2013 5:29:00 PM

Much of what we view every day in this business is based primarily on expectations and ultimately, reality.  Today was precisely one of those days.  While most expected slightly bearish inventory numbers, the news at 10:30 that showed Gasoline's up 2.6mbl and Distillates up 2.3mbl well beat expectations of builds of 700k and 800k respectively.  Pits reacted by selling off over four cents in each HO and RBOB.  With Crude showing a draw of 600k barrels while many expected a build of the same amount, you had to think how long the fall would last.  At the same time, the European Zone released figures that showed its GDP fell for the sixth straight quarter.  Soon talk of more FED stimulus took over the trade and the buy back gained momentum.  From what started out as a solid down day, turned on the expectation of what we think might happen, thus pushing the NYMEX higher by the closing bell.  At the close, Crude gain .09 to $94.30, HEAT added .0071 to $2.8801 and RBOB led the charge jumping .0294 to $2.8670, almost .10 higher than the intraday low.... Looks like some expect a busy driving season.

 

RBOB Close
      Close            Change
JUN    2.8670       +.0294
JUL    2.8480       +.0276
AUG    2.8192       +.0260
SEP    2.7853       +.0247
OCT    2.6407       +.0190
NOV    2.6130       +.0166
HEAT Close
       Close            Change
JUN    2.8801       +.0071
JUL    2.8742       +.0080
AUG    2.8797       +.0095
SEP    2.8892       +.0107
OCT    2.8977       +.0111
NOV    2.9031       +.0107
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Topics: European Economy, Futures, GDP, Distillates Build, Stimulus

NYMEX Stays Range Bound with Strong Pull Back

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jan 11, 2013 5:15:00 PM

Most pundits have been warning of upside breakout potential with this market for the last several sessions. When you really look at HO for the last four months, the defined range of 2.95 to 3.05 has held, with conviction. As much as I try to disprove the techies with fundamental basics, I am batting roughly .146 since October. That's a slump!

Although, we must point that todays selling seemed to be a reaction to China data reporting that runaway inflation is imminent. The news should have sent futures higher but those trying to avoid risk proceeded to sell off. Additionally, the Saudi Group has acknowledged lower production rates, signaling to the investors that demand may be waning in the weeks to come.

This weeks massive builds in products weighed heavy today in the minds of traders as many had to decide to be long or short with it almost 40 degrees in mid January. At the close, Crude fell .26 to $93.56, HO lost .0458 to $3.0085 and RBOB slipped .0538 to $2.7395

DAILY HEATING OIL CHART

Heat map

RBOB CLOSE
CLOSE CHANGE
 
FEB 27395 -.0538
MAR 27543 -.0483
APR 29165 -.0381
MAY 29072 -.0375
JUN 28771 -.0253
JUL 28422 -.0335
HEAT CLOSE
CLOSE CHANGE
FEB 30085 -.0458
MAR 30018 -.0438
APR 29901 -.0422
MAY 30210 -.0410
JUN 30050 -.0398
JUL 29969 -.0385
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Topics: Saudi Group, Chinese Inflation, Fundamentals, Distillates Build

DOE’s tempt Futures to sell off

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Dec 8, 2010 9:55:00 PM

You wouldn’t know it from looking simply at the closing figures that todays inventory report was initially viewed as wildly Bearish.  Confirming last nights API report with a draw of 3.8mbl in Crude, a build of 3.8mbl in gasolines and a build of 2.2mbl in distillates, pits tanked over 3 cents down around 10:30 this morning.  The losses were short lived however as others focused on demand numbers that showed some strength.  Additional reports of severe cold stretching from Northern Maine to South Florida fed the mid day rally that had HEAT pits dancing in  positive ground after lunch.  Again, on the surface, it appears the NYMEX wants to go lower, and the $90 resistance level of Crude appears to be holding.  But as to why we are not seeing the dramatic falls, like we saw the dramatic rises are beyond my explanation.   Even with the large draws in Crude, inventories are still well above last year and a lofty 25mbl over the three year average.  As I have said it appears Fundamental analysis is dead.  At the Close, Crude slipped .41 to $88.28, RBOB lost .0184 to $2.3046 and HEAT fell only .0095 to $2.4607, this after touching the $2.43 level earlier in the day.

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Topics: The Market, API report, NYMEX, Distillates Build

Inventory report keeps losses at bay

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jul 14, 2010 9:46:00 PM

Estimates had Crude falling 1.5mbl with the gasolines flat and distillates building by 1.0mbl. The early losses had pits down over 2 cents but as of 10:30 that changed with another massive draw in Crude stocks. For the second week in a row, Crude fell by 5mbls, Gasolines built by 1.6mbl and Distillates built by a whopping 2.9mbls. While the products set a bearish tone, the huge draw in Crude has some believing that we may be at the beginning of a run up due to increase demand and the recent round of positive earning numbers. Without the draw of Crude, we should have seen yesterdays increases get peeled off, thus the numbers kept the losses in check most of the day, even turning positive for some of the afternoon. As we have seen, the range of 1.90 to 2.10 on HEAT appears to remain intact. 1.90 levels still hold as buy in and sentiment looks to be cautiously bearish. With current freight indexes down slightly on a month to month basis, demand, from a street perspective is still marginal at best. At the end of the day, Crude actually fell 11 to $77.04, RBOB lost .0156 to $2.0665 and HEAT lost .0113 to $2.0361.

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Topics: CRUDE falls, The Market, Distillates Build

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