Bulls Remain in Control of Markets

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jul 16, 2013 5:45:00 PM

July 16th - Energy Bulls showed their muscle today by posting solid gains after an ever so slight dip yesterday.  On the back of an early weak dollar, RBOB and HO were up almost .03 cents in the early morning.  After what appeared to be some resistance touching, futures slid to even shortly after Open outcry, even posting some negative numbers.  The slide was short-lived as traders began to focus on this weeks inventory levels that are projected to show a draw of roughly 3mbls of Crude, signaling a rising demand.  Small refinery news and traders rolling positions into AUG also contributed to today's rise.   Personally, I have said for months that HO is stuck in this large new normal range of 2.75 to 3.05, being at the top of that range now, one has to speculate at how much higher we can go.  At the close, Crude was able to shed some pounds finishing down .32 to $106.00, HO added .0208 to $3.0469 and RBOB gained .0314 to $3.1343.  RBOB appears to be driving the market so Wednesdays price action will be intresting.

Energy market heat chart

RBOB Close
               CLOSE         CHANGE        
 AUG   3.1343         +.0314
SEP   3.0530         +.0227
OCT   2.8702       +.0186
NOV    2.8074        +.0137
DEC    2.7655       +.0094
JAN    2.7437       +.0057
HEAT Close
      CLOSE            CHANGE
AUG    3.0469       +.0208
SEP    3.0464       +.0186
OCT    3.0449       +.0167
NOV    3.0426      +.0138
DEC    3.0401       +.0113
JAN    3.0382       +.0091

 

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Topics: Dollar Struggles, Bull Market, Daily Heating Chart, RBOB

Futures Spike on Bullish DOE Numbers

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Aug 1, 2012 4:01:00 PM

After last nights API data release that showed Crude suffering a massive 11.2 mbl draw, most were awaiting todays DOE numbers with one eye closed, hoping it was an aberration. For those watching the screens at precisely 10:30 this morning you saw Rbob spike 4 cents and HO jump 3. While not as horrific as an 11 million barrel draw, Crude still lost 6.5mbl according to the DOE. Gasolines fell 2.2mbl and distillates fell 974k. Still, far more than expectations. Other Bullish influences to the Market early were the Federal Reserve meetings that many had been betting on another round of stimulus. That gamble didn't pay off as a short time ago they announced that while the economic turn around has slowed, it doesn't warrant another round of stimulus... yet. The interesting note to the entire session is that Crude, at its peak today, was only up $1.50. In the last half hour of the trade, HO looked to be going negative as the air was let out of the balloon. RBOB inflated to much to peel off any of the gains and finished up .0599 to $2.8342, HO gained .0108 to 2.8588 and Crude added .85 to $88.91. Thursday sets up to be another exciting day with Jobless figures due out at 8:30.

Heat map

RBOB CLOSE
CLOSE CHANGE
 
SEPT 28342 +.0599
OCT 26281 +.0447
NOV 25322 +.0401
DEC 25398 +.0370
JAN 25282 +.0334
FEB 25322 +.0320
HEAT CLOSE
CLOSE CHANGE
SEPT 28588 +.0108
OCT 28663 +.0105
NOV 28748 +.0101
DEC 28819 +.0108
JAN 28869 +.0113
FEB 28831 +.0104
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Topics: DOE, Daily Heating Chart, RBOB, Crude draws, Stimulus

Bulls remain in control ahead of Inventory Data

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Apr 5, 2011 1:02:00 PM

What appeared to be a solid retreat this morning turned into another solid up day for the NYMEX.  The early morning session had both pits down over two cents in electronic trading as word of a Chinese rate hike hit the wires and a possible slow down in demand for the worlds second largest consumers.  Additionally minutes from last month FED Reserve meeting realeased today noted several members voicing concern over the rapidly rising energy costs and the effects that would have on the growth pattern of the country.  But by mid morning, sentiment had changed with news once again surfacing that the oil port town of Brega in Libya was back in control of loyalist forces.  Intensified fighting between France and Ivory Coast over the areas rightful President also pushed prices higher as the growing fear of worldly strife has many investors searching for the one investment that is insulated.  At the close, Crude actually fell .13 to $108.34 while RBOB jumped another .0325 to $3.2013 and HEAT topped out at $3.1850 up .0136.

Daily HEAT Chart
heat chart
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Topics: CRUDE falls, Libya, Bull Market, Daily Heating Chart

NYMEX rises on jobs and overseas risk

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Apr 4, 2011 12:55:00 PM

RBOB spent much of the day bouncing back and forth from positive to negative before finally ending stronger.   Heating Oil never broke negative but did tease with it about mid day.  Depending upon which news wire you read, Libyan rebelshave either lost control of a major oil port city or regained full control.  The lack of credible reports coming from the crisis is playing into the risk premium.   New data was released this morning that shouwed the economy grew by 3.1% in Q4, slightly above the expected 3.0%.  Also psuhing values higer was data showing the economy created an addtional 31k jobs in the last month.  How much of that is seasonal workers is yet to be determined.  The rosey view and geopolitical risk that continues to spread over northern Africa and the Mid East has pushed HO above the $3.14 level, closing up .0369 to $3.1714.  RBOB moved higher by .0175 to close at $3.1688.  Crude reached an 18 month high before closing up .53 to $108.47.  We had said that the market appears to fade after HEAT touched $3.14, the breakthrough of that resistance level today lends to higher prices in the future. 

Daily HEAT Chart:
heat chart
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Topics: Jobless numbers, Libya, Daily Heating Chart

Winter's arrival keeps prices higher

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Dec 21, 2010 9:59:00 PM

You know winter has arrived when it takes over 3 hours to travel 50 miles on the Mass Pike.  The cold snap and glancing blow of a Nor’easter to the New England area had buyers out today.  Looming out on the horizon is another round of Inventory stats that are expected to be a mirror image of the last two weeks, draws in Crude and small builds in products.  While it is tough to distinguish between Holiday exuberance or a real change in sentiment, many out there are pointing to signs of a better economic picture.  How that has changed in only two weeks, I have no idea.  With the large Hovensa refinery attempted to be restarted, this has also attributed to the higher close.  Crude settled at $89.82 up .45 (again just shy of the $90 mark that has held all year)  RBOB added .0207 to $2.3985 and HEAT added .0269 to $2.5164.  With a short week for most and the Inventory report tomorrow we should expect a volatile session or two ahead of us.

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Topics: Daily Heating Chart, The Market, Massachusetts, weekly inventory numbers

NYMEX continues to slide, tests support

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Aug 23, 2010 9:47:00 PM

With only 3 up days to speak of in the last two weeks, the early morning gains have become increasingly more difficult to give any credence to. The day saw pits start off up over a penny a piece but as the opening bell range, price fell off the shelf. Front month RBOB, under pressure as a lame duck product, fell .04 cents in a matter of minutes. As investors continue to point towards struggling economic picture as reasons for the retreats, the failure for HEAT to break the $1.95 support level tells another story. For the third time since Mid May, HEAT has touched the $1.95 area only to shoot to the $2.20 level in the following 30 day stretch. Not that past performance is any indication of future potential, but it sure does look convincing. (see chart below) As the day wore and the Dollar got stronger, it appeared that funds were content in some profit taking. At the Close, Crude fell .72 to $73.10, HEAT dropped .0156 to $1.9554 and front month RBOB lost .0441 to $1.8810 while OCT RBOB lost only .0285 to $1.8390.

DAILY HEAT CHART

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Topics: Daily Heating Chart, The Market, NYMEX, Dollar Strengthens

Greece

Posted by Ed Burke on Apr 28, 2010 8:15:00 PM

It was clear today that traders had no idea what they wanted from the session and were riding the emotional wave on any piece of news released.  The morning news was dominated that yet another build in supplies were expected therefore pushing values down.  As the bottom feeders were able to push the pits back into positive ground, wires reported that Greece will more than likely default on their loans.  That sent the entire complex south.  But the resiliency of RBOB and HEAT to maintain some value while Crude tumbled has, many scratching their heads. Crude tumbled $1.76 to $82.44 but HEAT lost only .0068 to $2.2303 and RBOB fell only .0141 to $2.3268.  Those types of drops on Crude typically produce a 4 or 5 cent drop in the products at these levels.  Goes to show that someone out there still wants to ride this wave higher and is willing to put their money where their mouth is.  As the Dow continues to get slammed right now, down over 100 points, look for some fear selling on Wednesday despite what inventory levels are.

DAILY HEATING CHART

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Topics: Daily Heating Chart, The Market

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