Wild May Ends in Wild Fashion with HEAT retracement

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on May 31, 2012 5:23:00 PM

Lets take a minute to put this month into perspective as we all recognize our short memories. On May 1, HO opened at 3.1783. Todays close of 2.7062 is an astounding .4721 cent retracement. For several weeks we spoke of a fall to the 2.75 level on prompt month Heat, and it has become a reality. With the majority of talk centered around the ongoing European crisis, today saw more length shed from Commodities on the heels of continued growing Crude stocks and some uninspiring job data. The delayed DOE report showed Crude adding 2.2mbbls against an expected build of 800k, yet gasolines fell 832k and a rather bullish distillate draw of 1.7mbbls, verses expectations of +200k and +500k respectively. Traders apparently feel that Crude levels are so robust, it far outweighs and week to week changes in refined products. Secondly, ADP's monthly report on new job growth fell short of expectations as it showed 133k unit gain. Support that figure was new jobless claims rose by roughly 10,000 this past month. All in all, the market continues to search for a bottom as the US dollar gains strength and length is pulled from Commodities. At the close, Crude fell 1.29 to $86.53, RBOB lost .0332 to $2.8250 and HEAT slipped another .0336 to $2.7062

Daily Heating Oil Chart

Heat map

JUN 28250 -.0332
JUL 27227 -.0512
AUG 26676 -.0477
SEPT 26244 -.0444
OCT 24770 -.0430
NOV 24442 -.0408
JUN 27062 -.0336
JUL 27032 -.0406
AUG 27130 -.0403
SEPT 27249 -.0394
OCT 27375 -.0385
NOV 27507 -.0380
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Topics: Jobless claims rise, HEAT, CRUDE

Morning Losses Erased with Jobs News

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Apr 26, 2012 5:50:00 PM

For the second day in a row, early session losses were erased with strong closes. Todays bullish action came on the heals of a surprise increase in jobless claims and some cautiously upbeat comments the Federal Reserve. Commenting on the role of the Fed, Bernanke said ultra low rates would remain in effect through 2014 and did not rule out additional measures to pump up the economic situation. Commodities are the collateral damage of such news as the dollar again took a hit and caused the pits to show strong gains as the day wore on. Crude settled at $104.55 up .43, RBOB added .0276 to close at $3.1833 and HO took the lead gaining .0333 to $3.1944. Heat has come back with vengeance after touching 3.09 on the prompt month just over a week ago. There is fair amount of commentary out there that we should see substantially lower numbers in the coming sessions. Support for HO looks to be at the 3.15, then a 3.05 level.

Daily Heating Oil Chart

Heat map

MAY 31833 +.0276
JUN 31328 +.0137
JUL 30852 +.0066
AUG 30435 +.0028
SEPT 30043 +.0004
OCT 28602 -.0006
MAY 31944 +.0333
JUN 31984 +.0315
JUL 31982 +.0292
AUG 31985 +.0269
SEPT 32006 +.0259
OCT 32038 +.0245
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Topics: Commodities, Jobless claims rise, Jobless numbers, CRUDE

RBOB Continues Plunge as HEAT Stalls

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Apr 19, 2012 5:16:00 PM

Gasoline futures continued to sell off today after starting the early morning in the green. RBOB was up as much as 2 cents prior to the opening bell on news of Spain having a successful bond sell off to avoid yet another European debt scare. That bullishness turned however as Germany was said to be at odds with other Nations on how to proceed with the European Zone bailout plan. Simultaneously, Moodys was said to be ready to announce a downgrade of France's debt rating that caused the US dollar to push higher. A higher Dollar generally has a negative affect ( or positive affect from some viewpoints) on Commodities. Crude looks to be poised to fall below $100 for some time, getting as low as $101.67 before closing at $102.27, down .40. NatGas inventories were in line with estimates and on a whole remain roughly 700 bcf higher than the 5 year average. Even with the sessions slight bump in HO, finishing up .0069 to $3.1251, we are still roughly .15 less than two weeks ago. RBOB continues to be the dog falling another .0486(almost .25 in two weeks) to $3.1541. While it is nice to see the prices fall, realistically most think another .25 needs to be pulled off to get back to a "normal" state.


Daily Heat Chart

Heat map

MAY 31541 -.0486
JUN 31158 -.0331
JUL 30758 -.0220
AUG 30367 -.0176
SEPT 29974 -.0152
OCT 28550 -.0110
MAY 31251 +.0069
JUN 31284 +.0065
JUL 31320 +.0060
AUG 31353 +.0053
SEPT 31388 +.0048
OCT 31445 +.0039
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Topics: Commodities, Spanish Bonds, CRUDE, Dollar Strengthens

NYMEX continues higher ahead of DOE data

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Feb 7, 2012 5:40:00 PM

With the Heating oil pit tacking on over 15 cents in just under a week, many are scratching their heads as to why.  In a winter that has seen more 50 degree days than teens, most would assume the Heat pits to be tanking.  As with the case with these types of patterns, shifts in the jet stream have caused the Northeast to have a mild winter yet Europe is caught in a bitterly cold spell for some time.  Brent Crude has maintained its $20 premium to its cousin WTI, thus explaining the HO to WTI disconnect.  As shown below, that disconnect has been in place most of the year.   Longer term, you may start to see more US vessels head to European markets, signaling some shortfalls down the road.  Many are still on edge as Greece is continuing to try and find a way to pay off creditors and with Iran and Israel in a stare down, the tightening supplies across the pond are having nothing but bullish affects on the trade.  At the close, Crude added $1.50 to $98.41, RBOB slipped .0004 to $2.9275 and HO gained another .0343 to $3.1909.  Again we have touched the top of the 18 month range for HO, then next 30 days have typically seen a healthy pull back.  But again, what is typical anymore?

Continuation crude chart, continuation heating oil chart, RBOB continuation chart, continuation natural gas chart

                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
MAR    29275      -.0004
APR    30674      +.0000
MAY   30572     -.0002
JUN     30296       +.0002
JUL     29951       +.0009
AUG    29590       +.0014
          CLOSE    CHANGE
MAR    31909      +.0343
APR     31595      +.0342
MAY    31294      +.0318
JUN    31080      +.0288
JUL     31017     +.0268
AUG     31014      +.0246
Read More

Topics: Iran, European Economy, CRUDE

Futures Slip with Mixed Inventory Report

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Oct 26, 2011 8:26:00 PM

Much of the morning session saw values bounce around from positive to negative as pre DOE posturing held court.  Also holding weight was the curiosity factor of what was going to happen at the European Summit to discuss the ongoing debt issue.  As the news of a Crude build of 4.7mbl, a Distillate draw of 4.3mbl and a Gasoline draw of 1.4mbl hit the wires the initial reaction was bearish as the huge glut of Crude took center stage.  That was short lived as many looked to distillates as the leading pit and another large draw has now put distillates stocks smack dab in the middle of the 10 year range.  Over the past several weeks we have operated on the higher end of that range.  The selling only hit the floor with about 30 minutes left in the session as continued optimism remained that a long term solution to Europe's debt crisis will be agreed upon.  Signs pointed that way as earlier in the day, Germany, a key figure in the deal, voted to add more to its growing rescue fund.  An effort in that other nations will follow.  While we still are on the high end of the range, and a solid down day is refreshing, nothing out there is a clear signal that we are ripe for another pull back.  Again, the HEAT pit appears to be comfortable trading in the wide range from 2.70 to 3.10.  At the close, Crude lost $2.97 to $90.20, RBOB fell .0482 to $2.6516 and HEAT lost .0344 to $3.0158. 
heat map
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
NOV    26516       -.0482
DEC    26253      -.0494
JAN    26111      -.0474
FEB   26049      -.0445
MAR   26075      -.0416
APR    27387      -.0374
          CLOSE    CHANGE
NOV    30158     -.0344
DEC   30210      -.0302
JAN   30101       -.0304
FEB   29929      -.0316
MAR   29663     -.0323
APR   29260      -.0312
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Topics: Commodities, European Economy, Greece Bailout, Bull Market, CRUDE

Crude Rises as Products Fade in Late Sell Off

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jul 21, 2011 9:03:00 PM

Crude once again danced above the $100 a barrel mark today as many speculated that the economy is showing signs of improving.  Furthermore a marathon meeting session on Greece of European Leaders ended with a consensus that they will throw more money into the debt strapped country.  The Euro rose on the news as the dollar fell, thus pushing money into Crude.  The products failed to follow the rally.  RBOB slipped .0475 to $3.0995 while HEAT lost .0192 to $3.0992.  All while Crude managed to gain .73 to close at $99.13, more than a full buck off its high of $100.16.  Holding down products appear to be the fact that demand is still soft, and retail gas stations are still in the high $3 range.  Additionally, our friends at the IEA stated that they are willing to release more product to the market to stave off any spike in futures.  HEAT remains in a congested selling pattern and looking back over the last few months, you have seen healthy corrections after these periods.  In laymen terms, nobody is willing to make a move either way until an event pushes us too.  This event will likely be in the form of how the US debt ceiling issue is resolved, meaning we probably have another week of sloppy back and forth days

heat chart

                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
AUG    30995       -.0475
SEP    30567      -.0379
OCT    29285     -.0277
NOV   28959       -.0235
DEC    28801       -.0215
JAN    28832      -.0200
          CLOSE    CHANGE
AUG  30992     -.0192
SEP   31129       -.0191
OCT    31273      -.0188
NOV   31437       -.0191
DEC   31600       -.0191
JAN   31753       -.0190
Read More

Topics: Greece Bailout, Dollar falls, government shutdown, CRUDE

Futures shed value, outpaced by Crude

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jul 11, 2011 6:14:00 PM

Crude values have tumbled over the last two sessions outpacing the products which has many Americans wondering why.  Crude fell another $1.05 today to close at $95.15 while HEAT managed to lose only 89pts to $3.0875 and RBOB dropped .0221 to $3.0705. HEAT actually traded positive briefly with about 20 minutes lef tin the session.  The complex as a whole opened up with strong losses across the board as China released reports that inflation has hit a 3 year high, while seeing Crude imports drop 6%, thus sending the dollar higher.  As Friday's news lingered this morning of a mere 18k jobs being added last month, the lowest in over 9 months, and the apparent stalemate with the debt reduction resolutions, many were taking profits.  Should be of no surprise that many market managers added length in the last week according to the most recent CFTC report.  The common theme is that once again we are in an overbought market with a very wide range.  That range for HEAT has been from 2.80 to 3.35.  The complex has been unwilling to breakout in either direction, primarily based on fear of the unknown.  Once again, an event will need to happen to have it break through the high or fall below the low.   
heat chart
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
AUG     30705       -.0221
SEP    30249     -.0282
OCT    28915      -.0310
NOV    28561       -.0321
DEC     28446      -.0297
JAN    28506      -.0269
          CLOSE    CHANGE
AUG    30875       -.0089
SEP    30982      -.0099
OCT    31106     -.0111
NOV   31262     -.0119
DEC   31416     -.0129
JAN   31560      -.0141
Read More

Topics: Jobless numbers, CRUDE

Markets find strength ahead of Spring storm

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Mar 31, 2011 10:47:00 AM

With what appears to be a cruel joke by Mother Nature, sending us another 6 to 12 inches of snow for Friday, markets got the fuel they needed to push higher today.  While the winter weather may be a simple coincidence, the real driver today appears to the ongoing unrest in Libya.  After the President adressed the Nation Monday night, and all but assured us that NATO forces would take command and ground troops would not be committed, that plan is begining to look suspect.  Over the last few days, Rebel forces have made little if any ground against the Gaddafi regime.  Their reliance upon US and NATO air strikes to make any advances has put their chances of an overthrow in jeapordy.  This, even on the heels of a long time supporter of Gaddafi defecting.  Overnight the Lybian Foriegn Minister sought refuge, signaling to the West that the power appears to be fracturing.  However, with the President authorizing use of covert operations, many point to this as the first step in a drawn out conflict.  With Lybian product shut in, and Japaneese demand expected to pick up, we cant be all that surprised to see the bumps.  The key will be in how long it will take for the jump to be peeled off.  Speculative money appears in control for the time being and the slight drop in jobless claims is not facilitating a sell off by any means.  At the close, Crude rose $2.45 to $106.72, RBOB jumped .0436 to $$3.1076 and HEAT led the charge adding .0502 to $3.0898.
heat map
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Topics: HEAT, Libya, CRUDE, RBOB, Ghaddafi

Futures slip as cold blankets East

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Dec 10, 2010 9:56:00 PM

It appears to be the Oilman’s triple play today with Cold air, no snow and a falling market.  All we can say is Finally!  Early morning gains were wiped away upon news of the US trade deficit lowering and turning the dollar higher.  After yesterdays jump from what appeared to be a refinery issue (Fundamentals weren’t dead, they were just napping)  todays losses were a welcome sign.  As OPEC is scheduled to meet this weekend, the group is not expected to make any rate changes but they almost always throw their two cents in on prices.   With Crude hovering around the $90 mark, well above what most accept as a “reasonable” priced barrel, we can expect that the cartel will confirm the market is fairly priced.  Chatter is still surfacing that $100 Crude will be the average over the next 12 months, largely based on the assumption that demand should increase.   Awful lot of assumptions being made to hold this market this high.  At the end of the day, CRUDE fell .58 to $87.79, RBOB lost .0312 to $2.3093 and HEAT slipped .0093 to $2.4575. The week was largely a see saw finishing up around the same spot where we started, breakouts usually follow.

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Topics: HEAT, CRUDE, The Market

NYMEX continues rally higher

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Dec 2, 2010 9:53:00 PM

Speaking with an associate today we were amazed to both discover that last year at this time we over 40 cents less than now.  But that is ancient history.  Today continued yesterdays skyrocketing session that had pits touching year high levels yet again.  With Bulls jumping on reports of “Crude averaging $100 over the next year” and “home sales up 10%” it gives the much needed ammunition to buy the rumor and sell the fact.  Not that we are in the same scenario as last April, but remember HEAT touched 2.50 and then proceeded to fall to under $2, again, ancient history.  Fundamental factors appear to be creeping into the bullish sentiment.  Spot gasoline is said to be in short supply in the Northeast due to Venezuela refinery issues and distillates are being fueled by a brash of cold air heading into the Northeast.  Its hard to understand the weather issue as I still haven’t put a winter coat on.  At the close, Crude added $1.25 to $88 even.  RBOB soared another .0549 to $2.3553 and HEAT bolstered another .0490 to close at $2.4546.  Time to close our eyes and hope for a fall.

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Topics: Bull Market, CRUDE, The Market, NYMEX, Venezuela Refinery

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