IMF News, Germany, and the Dollar Pushing Markets Down

Posted by Kelly Burke on Oct 7, 2014 12:24:05 PM

Magnifying class showing the Internation Monetary Fund logo

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced this morning it was downgrading its outlook for Global growth in the wake of disappointing growth in the Euro Zone and Japan. This is the third time this year the IMF has revised its outlook down (this time to 3.3% from 3.8%) and out of the last twelve forecasts in the past 3 years, they've revised 9 of the estimates down. According to Fox News, the IMF consistently has based projections off of an assumption that wealthier nations would be able to reverse their high debt, high unemployment environments a lot faster than they have been.

The IMF's gloomy outlook on the Euro Zone and bleak projections for growth potential in emerging markets has been another force behind the rally of the US dollar, as the US economy has started to stabilize versus other major nations, especially France and Germany. Germany hit a record 5 year low on industrial production, not good considering they are one of the critical economic players in the zone. 

The news from the IMF pushed US stocks down at the open this morning, understandably. A related factor in the downwward push was the IMF warned that increased interest rates by the US Fed could stall progress in the US - and since essentially they are reporting that the US and Britain are holding everything afloat outlook wise - thats really not good economic news for anyone. 

Commodities are pushing down today, with Germany's abysmal output pushing the dollar higher. The stronger the dollar, the higher relative cost to non-dollar currency becomes, which would push demand even lower in Europe, especially in tandem with a slower economy overall. 

This week will see reports out from the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the International Energy Agency (IEA) -- all of whom are expected to project lower demand as well. 

As of noon, CRUDE is trending down -.97, ULSD is down -.025 and RBOB is down -.0404 with all looking like the trend will continue throughout the afternoon. 

Stay tuned!

 

 

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Topics: Commodities, European Economy, CRUDE falls, Dollar Strengthens, IMF

Futures Dip as GDP Report Shows Flat Economy

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jul 29, 2011 5:12:00 PM

Last week we mentioned that it was going to be a sloppy back and forth week if a debt ceiling resolution was not passed.  As shown below, that was exactly what materialized.  Starting the week, HEAT was at 3.1280 and finished today at 3.0962 with all sorts of gyrations in between.  As traders are not willing to commit either way as a resolution  still looms and a tropical storm hitting the gulf region, it was somewhat surprising to see the market fall off as much as it did mid session.  Both products were down as much as 4 cents on the heals of GDP data being released which showed the economy was basically flat.  Furthermore, it notes that the recession  was deeper than first thought and the economy is obviously growing at a much slower rate.  There is growing sentiment that we will begin to encounter demand destruction at a growing rate if prices do not ease relatively quickly. At the close Crude fell $1.74 to $95.70, RBOB lost .0047 to $3.1129 and HEAT fell .0090 to $3.0962. This weekend will be critical as to how the Markets will shake out for the next few months, as a resolution should see lower prices

heat chart

RBOB CLOSE
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
  
AUG    31129       -.0047
SEP    30579      -.0059
OCT    29211     -.0129
NOV   28852       -.0148
DEC    28691       -.0152
JAN    28708      -.0153
HEAT CLOSE
          CLOSE    CHANGE
AUG  30962     -.0090
SEP   30994       -.0150
OCT    31130      -.0156
NOV   31282      -.0169
DEC   31429       -.0176
JAN   31570       -.0183
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Topics: GDP, Debt Ceiling Resolution, RBOB tumbles, CRUDE falls

Futures Tumble as length is shed with Jobs Data

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on May 5, 2011 3:28:00 PM

As the saying goes " we buy in fear and sell in greed", today appears to be the perfect example of that old one.  Coming off the first three day sell off in over six months, the NYMEX was poised for a correction.  A new term put to the days action in the pits, a "flash crash" .  With all three major pits teetering on key support levels at the open, the technical sell off ensued as new unemployment figures were released that showed claims up by roughly 43k more than most estimates.  That, coupled with yesterdays slightly bearish inventory numbers, many sought to exit positions put on several weeks ago.  Again, it appears that we did find the event that would cause a correction, the key now is how much length is left and where will Bulls find a buying opportunity.  The last point to be made for a continued sell off will be to determine how demand will stand up with retail gasoline breaking $4.00 a gallon across most of the country.  From all indications, or today at least, demand destruction is weighing heavily on the minds of investors.  At the Close, Crude tumbled $9.40 to settle below $100 for the first time in weeks at $99.80.  RBOB lost a staggering .2271 to close at $3.0954 and HEAT led the charge with a whopping loss of .2561 to $2.8869. 

 
Daily Heating Oil Chart
heat chart
RBOB CLOSE
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
  
JUN    30954       -.2271
JUL    30228       -.2352
AUG    29686        -.2391
SEP    29256       -.2403
OCT     27624       -.2410
NOV    27244      -.2409
HEAT CLOSE
          CLOSE    CHANGE
JUN    28869      -.2561
JUL    29020      -.2561
AUG    29169      -.2564
SEP     29345      -.2562
OCT    29513       -.2558
NOV   29676       -.2557

 

The information contained in this report has been taken from trade and statistical services and sources believed to be reliable. Dennis K. Burke, Inc. makes no representations or warranties with respect to the content of such news, including, without limitation, its accuracy and completeness. This bulletin is provided for informational purposes only, and is not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell commodities.
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Topics: Jobless claims rise, CRUDE falls, Flash Crash

Bulls remain in control ahead of Inventory Data

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Apr 5, 2011 1:02:00 PM

What appeared to be a solid retreat this morning turned into another solid up day for the NYMEX.  The early morning session had both pits down over two cents in electronic trading as word of a Chinese rate hike hit the wires and a possible slow down in demand for the worlds second largest consumers.  Additionally minutes from last month FED Reserve meeting realeased today noted several members voicing concern over the rapidly rising energy costs and the effects that would have on the growth pattern of the country.  But by mid morning, sentiment had changed with news once again surfacing that the oil port town of Brega in Libya was back in control of loyalist forces.  Intensified fighting between France and Ivory Coast over the areas rightful President also pushed prices higher as the growing fear of worldly strife has many investors searching for the one investment that is insulated.  At the close, Crude actually fell .13 to $108.34 while RBOB jumped another .0325 to $3.2013 and HEAT topped out at $3.1850 up .0136.

Daily HEAT Chart
heat chart
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Topics: CRUDE falls, Libya, Bull Market, Daily Heating Chart

Inventory report keeps losses at bay

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jul 14, 2010 9:46:00 PM

Estimates had Crude falling 1.5mbl with the gasolines flat and distillates building by 1.0mbl. The early losses had pits down over 2 cents but as of 10:30 that changed with another massive draw in Crude stocks. For the second week in a row, Crude fell by 5mbls, Gasolines built by 1.6mbl and Distillates built by a whopping 2.9mbls. While the products set a bearish tone, the huge draw in Crude has some believing that we may be at the beginning of a run up due to increase demand and the recent round of positive earning numbers. Without the draw of Crude, we should have seen yesterdays increases get peeled off, thus the numbers kept the losses in check most of the day, even turning positive for some of the afternoon. As we have seen, the range of 1.90 to 2.10 on HEAT appears to remain intact. 1.90 levels still hold as buy in and sentiment looks to be cautiously bearish. With current freight indexes down slightly on a month to month basis, demand, from a street perspective is still marginal at best. At the end of the day, Crude actually fell 11 to $77.04, RBOB lost .0156 to $2.0665 and HEAT lost .0113 to $2.0361.

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Topics: CRUDE falls, The Market, Distillates Build

Storm fear fades, prompting sell off: Crude tumbles

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jun 29, 2010 9:40:00 PM

As quick as we saw the jump on Friday, we had thought that it was storm fear buying. And today brought vindication of those thoughts as I woke to a market down over 5 cents in both pits. As the opening bell rang, the buyers could not contain themselves prompting prices to claw back a few cents only to be weighed down by overriding fundamentals. The first named storm of the season is projected to miss most of the producing region in the Gulf and make landfall off US soil south of the tip of Texas. Product remains plentiful, even with expected draws in both Crude and gasolines this week while distillates are expected to show mild increases. As Wednesday’s expiry approaches, technical selling and booking profits for the quarter might push values down even further. At the close, Crude tumbled $2.31 to $75.94, RBOB lost .0656 to $2.0720 and JUL HEAT lost .0720 to $2.0213. The range appears to be widening some, but most are still unwilling to commit one way or the other.

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Topics: CRUDE falls, The Market, Expected Draws in Crude and Gas

Mixed Data has NYMEX end Mixed

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on May 12, 2010 8:32:00 PM

With the weekly inventory report came a mixed bag and subsequently a mixed close. As shown below, the largest variance was seen in gasolines which was the only thing that kept the trade positive today. Crude suffered losses finishing down 72 cents to $75.65, while products closed higher. RBOB added .0152 to $2.2101 and HEAT gained .0190 to $2.1591, further widening refining cracks. As we speak, Crude has fallen another 30 cents in aftermarket trading. Many are looking at demand, which has seen gasoline demand rise 10% over the same period last year and distillates rise almost 8% month on month. This after the EIA cut their demand outlook! How much of this is due to a strengthening economy remains to be seen. My sense is that demand, like IQ, wasn’t starting from a very high place so any increase is huge. Long and short, it looks as though we will be range bound for several sessions as investors keep a hairy eyeball on Europe and the DOW to evaluate how the financial crisis reverberates through the continent.

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Topics: gasoline demand rises, Inventory report, CRUDE falls, The Market, NYMEX

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