Futures Firm After Almost 2 Week Correction

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jan 10, 2014 4:58:00 PM

NYMEX values appeared to find support just above the 2.90 level on front month HO after a long cold stretch.  The Polar Vortex that gripped a large portion of the Country, and plagued us in the Northeast with long terminal lines, appears to be subsiding.  Many of us are getting a well deserved breather as we return to somewhat normalcy.  

The recent correction has shaved off roughly 18 cents on Heat and close to .20 on RBOB.  Bulls returned as new unemployment figures were released showing that while the actual rate was down to 6.7%, the economy failed to add the expected 200k jobs in the last month.  Many point to the loss of December seasonal workers and the fact that more and more Americans have simply stopped looking for a job.  This caused the greenback to fall, thus pushing Commodities higher.  The new talk will ultimately put immediate pressure on new FED Chief Yellen and her stance on any new rate changes.  Strong foreign import data also put supported markets as China was said to have a nearly 14% increase in Crude over the last 30 days.  Look for next week to be a choppy session with HO testing and ultimately bouncing off the 2.90 mark.  

 

At the Close, Crude added  1.06 to close at 92.72, RBOB closed up .0265 at 2.6691, and heat settled out +.0193 at 2.9407

RBOB Close
                      CLOSE     CHANGE            
FEB   2.6691         +.0265
MAR   2.6797         +.0245
APR    2.8547         +.0217
MAY    2.8511         +.0207
JUN    2.8272         +.0202
             JUL    2.7949         +.0190     
HEAT Close
      CLOSE            CHANGE
FEB   2.9407        +.0193
MAR   2.9234        +.0180
     APR    2.9100        +.0167     
 MAY   2.9019        +.0159 
JUN   2.8968        +.0157
 JUL   2.8948        +.0153

 

 

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Topics: Commodities, Chinese Crude Builds, Dollar falls, Jobless numbers, CRUDE, FED rates, Yellen

Positive Sales and Demand Data boosts RBOB

Posted by Mark Pszeniczny on Jun 14, 2011 5:05:00 PM

Early morning trading pushed all pits higher as news spread of Chinese Crude imports jumping 6%.  With a Market desperately looking for direction, the slightest potential shift in sentiment can have large scale implications.  As the morning moved on, and gasoline demand numbers were reported as an increase of 1.1% over last week, the buyers took early control and never looked back.  Very similar to what happens when you score 4 goals and 6 minutes, a la Bruin nation, it makes for an early day.  The empty netter was a retail sales figure that showed the losses were better than expected only showing a .2% decrease while a .3% decrease was anticipated.  Remember, it is all about expectations.  So it will be interesting to see how Wednesday plays out as most expect for builds across the board with the DOE numbers.  While we are still some 22 cents off the high seen back in early April, we are only 27 cents off the low in early May.  Again this range of 2.85 to 3.35 on Heat while vast appears to be the new normal.  A very hard close pushed values higher with about 10 minutes left in the session.  HEAT was teetering on even ground only to end up .02 to $3.1258, RBOB soared .0678 to $3.0646 and Crude added $2.07 to $99.37, still under the mythical line in the sand of $100 a barrel.

heat chart
RBOB CLOSE
                 CLOSE       CHANGE 
  
JUL     30646       +.0678
AUG    30250      +.0461
SEP    30069     +.0399
OCT    28897       +.0341
NOV     28676       +.0314
DEC    28554      +.0301
HEAT CLOSE
          CLOSE    CHANGE
JUL    31258       +.0200
AUG    31391      +.0189
SEP    31563     +.0187
OCT   31734      +.0180
NOV   31914       +.0181
DEC   32069       +.0182
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Topics: Chinese Crude Builds, RBOB

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